Quick Update: Gulf Coast COVID numbers
- Thread starter mrhickory
- Start date
Makes sense since even in the South the higher % vaccinated population is over 65.
Mrhickory and others also believe it’s affecting younger people under 50 a lot more than alpha or previous variants. If it was simply due to the elderly being vaccinated, hospitalizations wouldn’t be so high. I mean FL passed its previous high of hospitalizations. It’s probably also due to it reaching more people due to how contagious it is.
It's not like people just pull this stuff out of thin air. All of these drugs like ivermectin, chloroqunie, and others typically have some historically known effects on coronaviruses and that is why they got suggested as possible treatments in the first place. Doesn't mean they work, but it isn't silly that they have been proposed. They all have some sort of known interaction with the cellular processes involved in coronavirus infection/replication. For example...It’s a horse dewormer btw. Who da fuq decided to try this? Lol (I hope the next study which is larger finds it’s a miracle drug to cure Covid)
Column: Major study of ivermectin, the anti-vaccine crowd's latest COVID drug, finds 'no effect whatsoever'
Ivermectin, touted as a treatment of COVID by the anti-vaccine crowd, has "no effect," according to a major study.www.google.com
Known drugs and small molecules in the battle for COVID-19 treatment
COVID-19 has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization on March 11th and since then more than 3 million cases and a quarter million de…
There has been so much government money thrown at this, maybe they haven't really been affected too much yet.
It's not like people just pull this stuff out of thin air. All of these drugs like ivermectin, chloroqunie, and others typically have some historically known effects on coronaviruses and that is why they got suggested as possible treatments in the first place. Doesn't mean they work, but it isn't silly that they have been proposed. They all have some sort of known interaction with the cellular processes involved in coronavirus infection/replication. For example...
Known drugs and small molecules in the battle for COVID-19 treatment
COVID-19 has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization on March 11th and since then more than 3 million cases and a quarter million de…www.sciencedirect.com
Ha. Good to know.
They are always looking to make more though. Maybe they see it as too toxic and figure all will get it shortly anyway.
Looks like they need to be peer reviewed but thanks for the info.It’s a horse dewormer btw. Who da fuq decided to try this? Lol (I hope the next study which is larger finds it’s a miracle drug to cure Covid)
Column: Major study of ivermectin, the anti-vaccine crowd's latest COVID drug, finds 'no effect whatsoever'
Ivermectin, touted as a treatment of COVID by the anti-vaccine crowd, has "no effect," according to a major study.
Do you think we’re going to get to those numbers without mandates?
Im not against vax. Got it first chance I could. I’m very much against forcing a vax on those who don’t want it. If we want to restrict access for unvax’d (similar to school required shots), have at it.
Close to 80/85% By next fall for immunity, not vaccinated. Delta is vaccinating probably 1.5 million a week. Regular vaccines are giving first shots around 2-3 million a week. Add all who had Covid previously not vaccinated. The only good thing about delta is it will speed up the timeline to get most immune to severe Covid or death. From what I’ve read, delta will remain the dominant variant for a while.
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Nobody suggested people "can just do whatever they hell they want in the name of freedom." But a lot of people simply are not going to tolerate being forced to engage in behaviors that they don't want when the risk threshold to others is similarly low as for previous behaviors that used to be easily tolerated by society. For example, back in 2019 nobody ever gave a sh*t whether people got a flu shot or not. They didn't even care if somebody got the flu and came to work with it, even though that carried with it a risk of giving somebody the flu who might be hospitalized or even die from it. For people who have been vaccinated for COVID, the risks of being hospitalized or dying from COVID appear to be similar to that level of risk during a bad flu season. The primary risk for those who refuse to vaccinate is to themselves. The effect on others is still as minimal as many other behaviors that were previously tolerated in others.
Considering the mixed messages and outright lies from government officials over the past year-plus, many or most of which were clearly motivated by a desire to control people and/or further a political or philosophical agenda, it is understandable for people to be even more resistant than usual to something like this. When one factors in the accelerated development cycle, the unfamiliar technologies used, and the continued lack of approval from the FDA, it should be utterly unsurprising and even understandable for so many people to resist. Even though I know and you know that these vaccines are safe and effective and that getting them clearly is the best course of action, people still should have a right to disagree and to refuse them. Even though I disagree with their choice, I strongly believe people should have that choice.
I don't believe we will ever get close to 85% vaccinated, even a whole year or more after FDA approval. A lot of people are dug in at this point. Some would rather die that ever get it. However, COVID itself is going to vaccinate the population faster than the shots would. There are only three choices now: vaccination, COVID, or both. It's infectious enough that more than 95% of people will have some immunity to it by this time next year.
(edited for Stomp)
While I don't necessarily agree with the part about COVID over-taking cancer and heart disease, it really frustrates me when I see the constant message that is pretty much guaranteeing that we will definitely reach herd immunity, (if everyone would only go ahead and get the new vaccines ASAP). We've delivered so many not-quite-true messages, attempting to encourage folks to get vaccinated. Then, the goalposts are simply moved when a previous promise is proven to be incorrect.
No one really thinks through the reality of a massive vaccination campaign for BILLIONS, let alone the ultimate big picture impacts. In addition to the great points you made, even if we could hit an easy button and have everyone vaccinated, since we can still maintain a significant viral load, the virus might be able to mutate using this population as a host. Even 4%-5% of 7 billion is still a significant number of human hosts. IMHO, we need to plan and prepare for the worst, and then everything short of that will be icing, and it'll reduce the chances that we are caught with our pants down again.
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Exactly. That’s what I’m referring to above. I think the fda took too long to approve. Also, I heard reports of 11 and under approved by august. That’s when I said 250 million vaccinated by January. I still think we can get very close to that by September 2022 IF kuds under 12 start getting it in dec or January. I think more and more people will realize they will get Covid eventually if not vaccinated or having it before.
I didn’t say that. Some were likely to happen regardless. Yes covid is deadly and I am not attempting to downplay. The data is all over the place and its hard to really come to a conclusion on cause of death or true numbers one way or another right now. Speaking in absolutes just doesn’t seem quite right.
You're on of my favorite posters and we agree on most things, but we seem to be missing each other's points here. Available hospital beds aren't simply a question of vaxed vs unvaxed covid cases occupying them - it means that beds are becoming unavailable for ANY medical condition...so in that respect the unvaxed are having a very real effect on society.
I'll admit you lost me saying "it isn't like the healthcare workers are being forced to work for free or that these patients are not paying for treatment". I don't know how that comes into play when I'm simply talking about beds not being available because they're largely occupied by unvaxed covid cases
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Why am I not surprised you liked a post that said this will pass cancer and heart disease and that 50% will die from Covid?
Well that’s fine but a lot of people don’t agree they should have that choice just like a lot of people don’t agree on many other rules of society. Point being you could mandate certain things regarding a public health crisis without it meaning people’s rights are being stripped from them. People are way too stupid to be allowed to do whatever they want in certain situations even in the US.
I'm not sure if I agree with that statement at this point in time. Given that it's such a weird little pathogen that behaves somewhat unnaturally, all things are on the table, but let's really pray that it follows the path of most viruses and weakens, (though again, we have to be realistic, and we should definitely plan and prepare for the worst).
I wouldn't have thought it would matter much, but I heard a guy who called into a radio show yesterday who refuses to get vaccinated but who said that if it were approved by the FDA he would. That surprised me and made me wonder how many people might be in that category. I think it is especially short-sighted for the FDA to be allowing boosters but not having approved the vaccines themselves yet. There is enough data. Honestly, their delay in approval causes me to slightly question if there are possible safety concerns even though I personally have already been vaccinated with no ill effects.
All along, you have been more optimistic than I about the number who will get vaccinated. I hope to be wrong, but I see 250M as pretty much an upper bound on the ultimate number of vaccinated.
It’s already worse here in the south, and most of that has to do with vaccines not being administered. Some of it is also general health being an issue for a ton of people down here.
If we don’t, 5-7. If we do, 8-5.Either way, we're still going to beat the snot out of PSU. Right, @hsvtiger34?
Interesting read on a hypothesis that suggests otherwise based on study of a different virus in chickens but could be applicable in this scenario and help explain current situations in Israel and UK where vaccinations rates are high. Thought you might find interesting. FYI, I only read the abstract, summary and intro.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4516275/
basis is that an imperfect vaccine that still allows transmission encourages mutations while also increasing infection rates
@DavistonTiger
@Big Blue
I’ve read a few articles on the fda approval process for this vaccine. They didn’t have enough people on it to review thousands of pages of info. When I saw they went to “all hands on deck” to get done with, it really pissed me off. WTF could be more important? It has been given to what? 2 billion? I think we know more than any other approved vaccine at this point.
On people getting it after approval, if just half that said that were being truthful, we will see a big increase instead of a temporary bump. I’m pretty pessimistic that it’s more than an increase that last but I’m hopeful. I heard some guy say they would just go down their list to the next objection. Also, I expect to hear that they rushed approval because Fauci put extra pressure on them to do it now. I do think it causes more mandates. The three big factors to increase vaccines are the approval, delta itself and kids being approved.
Not whining and I could give a shit what you or anyone else thinks about me. Lol at you for thinking I’d care what a stranger thinks of me.
‘Joe Rogan Is Getting This Completely Wrong,’ Says The Scientist Who Conducted The Vaccine Study
“He's taking very careful work about evolutionary scenarios of the future, and from that, erroneously concluding that people should not be vaccinated now," says Andrew Read, professor of biology and entomology at Pennsylvania State University and author of the study.
www.forbes.com
Because you are almost guaranteed to short-bus the analysis, interpret incorrectly, and otherwise be wrong.
Did you really not see where I responded specifically to that part of the post in another post and said I disagreed? I didn't respond to that at all in my first response, but I made a second response/post where I clearly said I disagreed with that part.
I responded when I saw your first post on it. You can simply scroll up to see I responded before you’re second post. This is simple to do. Also, you highlighted that it will pass cancer and heart disease long term in this country. Do you really agree with him on that?
I think it has been known for a while that vaccinations can potentially cause more (and more harmful) viral mutations. I think this is why @Auburn93 previously has commented about it being a bad idea to vaccinate during a pandemic. From an evolutionary or population genetics standpoint, it makes sense that this can happen. How much effect this has (I think) depends on transmission rates and mutation rates for given viruses. Regardless, vaccination for COVID is a no brainer. Even if it were to result in strains that cause more serious illness in the non-vaccinated, a lot of lives are saved by doing it anyway. Ideally, everybody in the world would get vaccinated on a single day and mutations would be limited and the pandemic would end a few weeks later, but that isn't practical or possible.
Well, you are whining. That's kind of the definition of what you're doing. Saying it isn't whining doesn't change what it actually is. But glad to know you don't caer.
Why don't you just put Mr. H on ignore? Then you don't have to see his posts.
In fairness, @Auburn93 thinks you shouldn't vaccinate for anything, anytime. He can correct me if I'm wrong, of course. But his general anti-vax stance kind of tarnishes any views he has on the covid vaccines specifically.
At any rate, I think your main point is the key one: regardless of anything else, vaccination remains the smart thing to do to mitigate the impact of covid. Everything else can be debated and analyzed forever, but the clear, essentially-undeniable evidence is that getting vaccinated is good for people personally, and more people getting vaccinated is good for society generallyl.
"Hospital system failure" is a bit of fear mongering. There are available beds all over the state, they just haven't been designated for COVID for some reason.
Hey Doc, thanks for very valuable info on a terrible pandemic affecting all of us one way or the other. You don’t post often but when you do it’s great stuff that most of us appreciate very much! Thanks for your expertise and please keep it coming!!!
#metoo. Actually I was vaccinated (Team Moderna) and then got the covid (fortunately the mild Michelob Ultra version)........I'm going 7-6 for my projection this year.
Do you have the stats on which vaccine is working better? I know last week you said 0 patients had taken Moderna. Also, are there any death stats of vaccinated vs unvaccinated?
Yep! 88% less likely to contract but 96% less likely to be hospitalized or die. We have a few vaccinated in the hospital but they aren’t the ones in the ICU on vents.
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