It was fair to say that with Alpha but this administration underestimated Delta and it’s effects and there wasn’t a ton of data at that point on Delta. Putting genies back in bottles is a very tricky situation though.
Quick Update: Gulf Coast COVID numbers
- Thread starter mrhickory
- Start date
It was fair to say that with Alpha but this administration underestimated Delta and it’s effects and there wasn’t a ton of data at that point on Delta. Putting genies back in bottles is a very tricky situation though.
What about if I go to a bar and get hammered drunk and trip and fall coming out if the bar and split my head open? Obviously it’s foreseeable that may happen and I’m totally responsible. Should I get turned away if the hospitals are near capacity?
Viral loads are lower for vaccinated in random samples. Vaccinated are contagious less days. You’re also less likely to get Covid in order to pass it on if you’re vaccinated. In other words, the vaccinated spreading it is a drop in the bucket on spreading Covid compared to the unvaccinated.
We are on the verge of crisis protocols in which we will decide who lives and dies based off of survivability without input from family or advanced directives. If these protocols are enacted, it will not matter if your family refuses, if you are next in line, then it is time to give up your ventilator if the next patient is more survivable than you. We are close to that point.
In your scenario, have someone drive you to the ER and we will get one of our techs or RNs to staple your face up in the parking lot. Return in 10-14 days to get them taken out. Chicks dig scars!
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There was hardly any delta info as it was just ramping up in the UK. What I don’t think they understood was businesses weren’t going to check vaccination cards. It caused all to go unmasked. Then again, it changed nothing in bars and restaurants as you could be maskIess anyway if eating or drinking. I don’t think it caused more to have gatherings etc as the unvaccinated were doing that already. It’s just the result of large unvaccinated areas facing summer heat with zero mitigation areas (no matter what CDC said imo) vs a very contagious variant of Covid. Perfect storm. Now schools in to make things worse.
I'd given my two cents and presented that same hypothesis, but of course, I was attacked by Stomp and his acolytes. They vehemently disagreed with me.
I'm glad that other people with visibility and qualifications are finally catching some of this stuff, because without identifying such key edge cases and critical considerations, they will come to all kinds of specious conclusions. When you conduct ostensible analysis, and don't factor in such key/critical considerations, you don't come up with the BEST solutions possible.
It could make all the difference between us being able to do real science, make better decisions, and most importantly, allow us to get to the other side of this thing ASAP.
Viruses do not automatically get weaker as they mutate. One of the biggest worries doctors are expressing now is that by allowing COVID to continue spreading unchecked, we are increasing the likelihood of additional variants which puts us at a higher risk that the next variant(s) will be even more contagious and deadly than what we have faced thus far. It's also possible that further mutations cause the virus to target different age groups. The quicker we get an extremely high percentage of our population vaccinated and drastically reduce the spread, the better off we will be.
No, you should get a bed.
Now, it's a year from now and dozens/ hundreds of new drunken fallen head splitting patients are being admitted daily and it's bad enough that our ICUs are maxed out because they can walk straight, I'd probably say the same.
That's true mrhickory, but if I was able to hypothesize this back in May, I'd certainly hope that the scientists, researchers and experts who are charged with leading this thing, giving critical guidance and making key decisions, might have the prescience to be able to identify these types of critical edge cases. If you're not blinded by an agenda, it's less likely to happen, (i.e. if balance, and objectivity are being maximized).
At the time, I said that the extreme propaganda might lead to such mistakes, and in this case it did. We assumed, but failed to verify, and that is always VERY bad science.
Lol. You were talking about vaccinated, he’s talking about unvaccinated for the most part on cases. Kids aren’t vaccinated for the most part.
I'm in that boat right now. Wife and I (plus our girls) have been sick off and on for like a month now. I think my youngest might have had pneumonia or at least bronchitis. I've had bronchitis which caused me to have a pretty big asthma flare up (worse one I've had in 30 years). I've been tested twice with the nasal swap both negative. Tested our oldest and she was negative but you never know.
And I'm sure there are 1000's like me
The good news is if this is the case, that we maybe closer to the peak of this wave than we think. I've also heard that basically after this wave, everybody will have either gotten covid or been vaccinated.
BTW, I'm typing this as I'm doing a nebulizer treatment ..... fvcking sh#t.
No Stomp. Go listen again, because you missed it. We're talking about the same thing, (i.e. the inability to accurately determine the number of breakthrough cases).
As I've pointed out to you constantly, all of your stats and data will be off, since we do NOT know the accurate numbers of vaccinated that are carrying a significant viral load, or who have experienced breakthrough cases and are out there "getting back to normal", spreading COVID to both vaccinated, and unvaccinated, (of course, primarily lighting up the unvaccinated).
Not everybody but gottlieb says enough to not have another wave barring a variant that evades the vaccines. No current variant does that right now. Add vaccinations going up after fda approval then kids under 12 being approved by maybe January and I think we will be past the worst.
I really do hope that we are close to peak. Also, thank you for taking the time to get tested. I've encouraged as many as possible to take the time to get tested, and not just assume it's a cold, or allergies etc. Unfortunately, since the vaccines work, and so many are asymptomatic, or have mild symptoms, people just won't take the time to go get tested, (so the data that we need in order to do good science, is all shot to heck).
How many unvaccinated have very few to no symptoms? Now determine how many more unvaccinated cases there are. When you’re talking 10-20 times more than reported, you’re talking mostly unvaccinated because they have way more cases.
I haven't read that anywhere. Can you send a link to back up that statement? One that isn't politically or incentive based? In other words, a source that is independent and neutral? And no, the federal government/CDC/US mass media are not an independent third party. Sorry if that hurts your feelings.
It’s literally a protocol written for our system after Katrina. Most of us have never read it just know the gist of it. I might have to break it out and research in the next couple of days. If current trends hold, within 5-7 days. Just hoping for a peak in the next couple of days now.
Mr. H, @stevesawbone and our other bunker medical professionals post information here in hopes of helping their fellow Auburn fans. They undoubtedly see the constant stream of misinformation being posted here and feel some charitable impulse to try and cut through it by providing first-hand information that every one should know they can rely on. I think it'd be a great idea to have a rule that only the established medical professionals are allowed to post COVID related info on the bunker and all other posts should go on the covid board. That'd be tough to enforce, but preventing the bunker docs from sharing potentially life saving information with the largest audience possible would be a mistake, imo.
So, these charts suggests a pretty high degree of reinfection with the vaccinated population. Correct? But it looks like deaths are way down with the Delta variant in the UK. That is a great sign!!!Posted this in another thread, but here's a good look at how the UK's doing with the Delta variant. Note that they're a highly vaccinated population.
This is a terrible analogy given that heart disease isn't contagious nor is there a free shot people can get that would prevent 99% of all deaths.
As well as hospitalizations. That’s not the case so far here unfortunately. They are more vaccinated and were shutdown until 3 weeks ago.
This. I guess we have to assume the people who are upset over COVID precautions and vaccination efforts also think that speed limits, seat belt laws, and bans on drunk driving are affronts to their "liberty."
There's a lot of data posted from independent/impartial doctors in Europe and Israel that is contrary to the data posted by the Fed Gov/CDC/US/Big Tech/Mass Media/Social Media, etc here in the US. And that is a FACT JACK! All of this information needs to be taken in BEFORE making any potential life changing decisions.
Viral loads are lower for vaccinated in random samples. Vaccinated are contagious less days. You’re also less likely to get Covid in order to pass it on if you’re vaccinated. In other words, the vaccinated spreading it is a drop in the bucket on spreading Covid compared to the unvaccinated.
The one up above.
No one is talking about data posted by the "fed gov/CDC/US/Big tech/mass media/social media etc." We are discussing first hand information being provided by doctors who are members of this site that have been treating COVID patients for 18 months. Anyone who reads Mr. H or @stevesawbone's updates and still feels compelled to go hunting online for nutty anti-vax propaganda to post is a huge part of the problem.
Stump....you need to write in clear English brother. I have no idea what point(s) you are trying to make here. Also, are you saying that the data is different here in the US than in Europe and Isreal? If that is the case, then you made my point!
Since you're so concerned about the quality and bias of the studies presented, go do your own homework. Also, if you're so inclined, you can take a moment to show us all these "impartial doctors" you found in Europe that aren't part of the "Fed Gov/CDC/US/Big Tech/Mass Media/Social Media, etc " machine.
I bet that they, shockingly, are aligned to your view of the world.
Spare me.
And those are two data points here in the US, dumass8. I am unvaccinated, but I am NOT anti-vax. I am unvaccinated with natural antibodies that I was blessed with before the vaccine was available to me. But A-holes like you can only think binary.....Vax and anti-vax....Some of us have open minds and ask questions from those on the front lines here in the states and also get information from independent sources in other parts of the world because of idiots like you that only trust what you read here. I like to keep an open mind, take it all in and make an informed decision in the best interest of me and my wife and all 4 of my kids. So you can take your propaganda, what you choose to believe actually and shove it where the sun don't shine!
What independent/ impartial doctors? Like the weight loss clinic operator who has ”treated’ 15 Covid patients? Or like the independent impartial doctor who started this thread. Just because you are “independent/impartial” doesn’t mean you aren’t a quack. @mrhickory has brought excellent, factual information over and over.
since you ask others for data to back up their claims, show me yours. Show me these doctors data that are contradicting CDC virologists and immunologists. peer reviewed, published data; not you tube videos and facebook
also, are you referring to the vaccines as “potential life changing decisions”?
I have done my own homework. The quality is there Mr. Dumass, it's the bias that is the problem. I am in a good spot. I don't have to worry about any long term effects from a vaccine, because I haven't had one. You can search the sources yourself. I am an oulde and I am not going to go through the trouble of posting links. I do have an open mind, unlike yourself and I do like to hear what Doctor's are experiencing here in the state's like Mr. Hickory. I do trust him.
No, we are not talking about "2 data points." We are talking about first hand information from numerous medical facilities. In addition to Mr. H and stevesawbone, we also have folks like @shorts who shares information from his wife who is a doctor. All of them are painting the exact same picture regarding the dire situation hospitals are facing, just as was the case in prior surges in cases/hospitalizations. They are also all making it crystal clear that it is a necessity that our country reach a high percentage of vaccinations as quickly as possible. The credible information they have shared doesn't fit into your preferred narrative so you fire up google and look for "independent" sources that will tell you things you want to hear.
You do realize that the Moderna, Pfizer and J&J Covid vaccines were the first vaccines in the history of the US that were created without an independent 3rd party overseeing the human trials right? Go look that up for yourself brother. I'm not going to do that work for you. I do my research for my family. I don't owe you a wooden nickel!
Lower viral loads:
“One massive analysis of Delta transmission comes from the UK REACT-1 programme, led by a team at Imperial College London, which tests more than 100,000 UK volunteers every few weeks. The team ran Ct analyses for samples received in May, June and July, when Delta was rapidly replacing other variants to become the dominant driver of COVID-19 in the country. The results suggested that among people testing positive, those who had been vaccinated had a lower viral load on average than did unvaccinated people. Paul Elliott, an epidemiologist at Imperial, says that these results differ from other Ct studies because this study sampled the population at random and included people who tested positive without showing symptoms.”
Same study on less likely to get infected:
Fully vaccinated people up to 60% less likely to catch delta variant, UK study finds
Fully vaccinated people are 50 percent to 60 percent less likely to become infected with the delta variant of the coronavirus compared to unvaccinated people, according to a study conducted by Imperial College London in England and released Aug. 4.
Less days:
“…but that high level of virus lasts only three to four days compared with an unvaccinated person who could be contagious for up to 10 days, said Suresh Mittal, professor of virology at Purdue University’s College of Veterinary Medicine.”
“Another benefit of the vaccines is that they likely shorten the length of illness for many individuals who do become infected. In a study published in June, Ellingson and her colleagues found that vaccination reduced disease severity and duration of illness in healthcare workers and other first responders who reported breakthrough infections. Vaccinated participants had a 58 percent lower risk of fever and also reported two fewer days sick in bed, and an overall length of illness that was six days shorter than that of unvaccinated individuals on average.“
Study showing less days:
Yes, it’s different. Cases are high in all areas but we have higher deaths and hospitalizations. That’s mainly due to be lower vaccinated along with other factors. They had more mitigation measures than us. UK was shutdown until 3 weeks ago for example.
Mr Hickory said it's safe to get vaccinated. So, is your wife vaccinated? Older kids? You said you trusted him. He's, you know, not part of the machine so that checks boxes in your "Jeff Gilmer's open mind" task list, right?
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