Quick Update: Gulf Coast COVID numbers

[Stumpfan]

But don't we want the virus to eventually mutate into a less serious form? Aren't we somewhat delaying what our end goal is?

Also, it can jump from humans to animals. Us small amount of humans comparably don't really matter in the big picture. It will keep on doing it's thing.


I pro vaccine. Take it and save your life. Just food for thought.

I have barely heard anything about animals but I would imagine our spread is much more based on how humans live. The more hosts, the more mutations. Yes, it can mutate into something less deadly but it can also mutate into something more deadly and more vaccine evasive. We don’t want that. The best strategy is mass vaccination worldwide abd the rest get natural Immunity. Also, I was glad to see a Dr say today that the mRNA vaccines should last for years to protect against severe disease and death. That’s huge.

 

[auheld]

Did people ask for these updates? Isn't there a COVID board here somewhere... good grief.

Post less.

 

[graham bAyoU]

Did people ask for these updates? Isn't there a COVID board here somewhere... good grief.

This is the best info you're going to get about the current state of this pandemic. A non-political post from a physician actively treating COVID patients in an area that's geographically close to most members of this site...good grief.

 

[wgbp]

A friend at Grandview said they had a 25 year old girl die this week due to covid complications. 25 years old. Apparently she was a girl @Docdumpsta would be interested in. But still 25 years old. The first wave of this thing wasnt messing with anyone that young

 

[DavistonTiger]

I have barely heard anything about animals but I would imagine our spread is much more based on how humans live. The more hosts, the more mutations. Yes, it can mutate into something less deadly but it can also mutate into something more deadly and more vaccine evasive. We don’t want that. The best strategy is mass vaccination worldwide abd the rest get natural Immunity. Also, I was glad to see a Dr say today that the mRNA vaccines should last for years to protect against severe disease and death. That’s huge.

I saw a report yesterday that got my looking into this a little deeper, hence the pod cast and this question today.

But like 67% of deer tested in Michigan had covid antibodies. @GONIG BUCK make sure you cook that deer meat really well.

67 percent of white-tailed deer tested in Michigan had COVID-19 antibodies

Michigan’s 67 percent positive antibody rate among deer was the highest of four states tested.

www.wilx.com

 

[easterwood]

Agreed...

The bigger question the pod cast was discussing I listened to.

If covid is here to stay and our goal is to have it morph into a mild illness aren't we just delaying that mutation with vaccines.

The panel was split on that answer.

I'm team vaccine because I believe it will keep you alive, while also allowing for the virus mutation.

The Russian Flu of 1899 to 1893 killed an estimated million people out of 1.5 billion. This is with bad record keeping. 0.07% of the population before its suspected to attenuate.

COVID has killed 4.33M with 7.9bn people. So far its at 0.055%. I'd say it's a lot nastier bug, so we should push vaccines to get immunity quicker.

Get the shot. People will realize it's too late once the hospitals turn you away. Maybe it's the catalyst we need to convince the holdouts.

As always, thank you @mrhickory for your insights, stay safe, and keep saving folks.

 

[DufnerFanBoy]

Saw this on Twitter last night from EAMC on their latest numbers.

 

[LeotheTiger]

@mrhickory any good news in the therapeutic and treatment area?

 

[stevesawbone]

I spoke with an administrator at UAB regarding the bed usages, and he said it was a perfect storm, and though a good portion was Covid related, it was also many other patients that have been putting off treatment for two years and are now in dire need. One patient was putting off stomach pains, turns out he has pancreatic cancer. That was just one example of other issues people are having now which are causing these issues. Any of this in your hospital?

A side note: my 17 year old daughter tested positive for Covid last week while on a trip with another family in the Bahamas, last in our family to get it. She is unvaccinated. Two day summer cold and she is all good. The family, she was with, all fully vaccinated, also tested positive and was vastly more sick than my daughter. So go figure...

Absolutely, it happens. Vaccinated can still get sick. And, you’d have to wonder what would’ve happened to that group if they’d been unvaccinated. Check this out, thought was a great graph

 

[A2NCtiger]

5-7

Absolutely no point in Jay G making a Covid board considering not one dumb dumb actually posts their Covid rights on it.

 

[TridentAU]

Go suck on several knobs 🍆

I get that reference

 

[03Tiger]

Did people ask for these updates? Isn't there a COVID board here somewhere... good grief.

Just ridiculous that you are forced to read them

 

[AUfamily82]

Absolutely, it happens. Vaccinated can still get sick. And, you’d have to wonder what would’ve happened to that group if they’d been unvaccinated. Check this out, thought was a great graph

View embedded media

Is there a graph for that for those that are non-vaccinated? Everyone in my immediate family that can/could vax have been vaxxed, but I've got a lot of fringe family and friends that are holding strong on not getting it (some due to fear, some due to political views, and others think they know more than everyone else)

 

[penya87]

Thanks for the update OP.

This is all very depressing.

91% of the hospitalizations being unvaccinated is somewhat optimistic for vaccinated people. I don't really understand the explosion of the numbers though. Is this solely the delta variant being much more contagious?

 

[mrhickory]

Absolutely, it happens. Vaccinated can still get sick. And, you’d have to wonder what would’ve happened to that group if they’d been unvaccinated. Check this out, thought was a great graph

View embedded media

Yep! 88% less likely to contract but 96% less likely to be hospitalized or die. We have a few vaccinated in the hospital but they aren’t the ones in the ICU on vents.

 

[Stumpfan]

I saw a report yesterday that got my looking into this a little deeper, hence the pod cast and this question today.

But like 67% of deer tested in Michigan had covid antibodies. @GONIG BUCK make sure you cook that deer meat really well.

67 percent of white-tailed deer tested in Michigan had COVID-19 antibodies

Michigan’s 67 percent positive antibody rate among deer was the highest of four states tested.

www.wilx.com

How often do we come into contact with deer meaning the avg person. Even if we aren’t important to mutations, it doesn’t matter. The best strategy is massive worldwide vaccinations. With them protecting against severe disease for years, it’s even more important.

 

[Lover of Pearl]

Did people ask for these updates? Isn't there a COVID board here somewhere... good grief.

Yes we do. So shut the fvck up and stay out of the thread.

 

[Stumpfan]

Yep! 88% less likely to contract but 96% less likely to be hospitalized or die. We have a few vaccinated in the hospital but they aren’t the ones in the ICU on vents.

I believe the 88% was symptomatic Covid which is what’s most important. I believe most believe it’s about 4 times less likely to get infected but 8 times on symptoms. The 25 is the most important though as you pointed out.

 

[wake]

We passed an unthinkable threshold this morning. Now over 50% of our inpatient beds are now bedded with active COVID patients. 86% of our ICU is now active COVID with 94% of those requiring ventilators. We have pulled doctors from outpatient clinics to come help see those less severe non-Covid patients.

82% of our ER beds are currently inpatient and over 50% of those are COVID as well.

Currently 91% unvaccinated of those admitted with COVID. Only 1 in ICU that has been vaccinated and not on ventilator.

I don’t believe in vaccine mandates and let’s don’t start another thread about that or that people shouldn’t have the right to decide for themselves. This also isn’t a thread about ivermectin or masks. But, we do have many currently hospitalized and in ICU that had been on ivermectin since diagnosis. I don’t care if you take it, just don’t wait too long to get here if you start to decline.

Of note, our governor asked for the USS Comfort/HMS Mercy to make its way here as that our hospitals are the brink of complete collapse.

Just asking for some T’s and P’s for those of us working on the gulf coast and please let it peak soon.

@mrhickory any thoughts on when/if Novavax will available in the states? Had Doc recommend that instead of a 3rd Pfizer. Thoughts?

 

[SolAUr Flare]

Did people ask for these updates? Isn't there a COVID board here somewhere... good grief.

I personally am glad this gets posted on this board. I don't go to the other boards and it is important information. If it helps one person it's worth someone being irritated they clicked on the thread.

 

[warchief64]

Did people ask for these updates? Isn't there a COVID board here somewhere... good grief.

If you aren't interested then don't read it. Simple fix

 

[WoSDWDE]

Yep! 88% less likely to contract but 96% less likely to be hospitalized or die. We have a few vaccinated in the hospital but they aren’t the ones in the ICU on vents.

@mrhickory Any documented cases at your hospital of severe (or even mild) side effects from people getting the vaccine?

 

[DavistonTiger]

How often do we come into contact with deer meaning the avg person. Even if we aren’t important to mutations, it doesn’t matter. The best strategy is massive worldwide vaccinations. With them protecting against severe disease for years, it’s even more important.

Exactly, we never come into contact with them and 67% were infected. Meaning, it travels between species by jumping from one to the other. Meaning we can't hide from mutations. It's impossible.

But we agree vaccines are the best solution. But we disagree on mutations. I don't think they can be stopped and honestly we don't want them to stop. We want it to mutate into a cold. Vaccines are going to keep us alive while the virus mutates.

 

[TRACKEM]

Question for the medical people. I had the Pfizer vaccine, but appears the Moderna is much better at handling the delta variant. If if a booster is required, will it be better for the Pfizer vaccinated to get a third shot of Moderna?

 

[Stumpfan]

Thanks for the update OP.

This is all very depressing.

91% of the hospitalizations being unvaccinated is somewhat optimistic for vaccinated people. I don't really understand the explosion of the numbers though. Is this solely the delta variant being much more contagious?

Gotta tag him but yes. The avg person infected with delta infects 6-8 others. In April 2020, it was 1-2 I believe. I think the hospital numbers are exploding because it affects non elderly more than in April 2020 or even April 2021 (alpha).

 

[Big Blue]

let’s look at some posssible good news -

if this continues to rage, maybe we’ll play at Penn State and LSU in front of greatly reduced crowds. May be the only way we win both of those.

As contagious as this thing is now, it is unlikely for the growth in cases and hospitalizations to keep exploding. Eventually, it has to run out of bodies and the number hospitalized is still a small portion of the total number of infected. By the time of the PSU game, it should be burning itself out regardless of vaccination status. The numbers actually should be dropping by the Akron game. One way or another, this pandemic will end soon.

 

[Stumpfan]

Question for the medical people. I had the Pfizer vaccine, but appears the Moderna is much better at handling the delta variant. If if a booster is required, will it be better for the Pfizer vaccinated to get a third shot of Moderna?

Not a medical person but heard one on tv today say the Pfizer and moderna vaccine are the same for severe disease and death and will last for years before a booster is needed. Also, a nasal spray vaccine is being developed that can be done at home which stops the virus at the point of attack. Most breakthrough infections stop at the nose but this prevents even getting it in the nose.

 

[vanceme]

Yep! 88% less likely to contract but 96% less likely to be hospitalized or die. We have a few vaccinated in the hospital but they aren’t the ones in the ICU on vents.

This is another excellent graph. I know previously the folks that had COVID previously were falling in line with the vaccinated. Meaning they are now getting the Delta variant at levels not seen before. Is that still holding true?

Have you seen anyone who has had COVID and got vaccinated in the hospital yet?

 

[homewood]

My uncle just got out of ICU at South Baldwin hospital with covid. He was very close to going on a vent. They refused to consider, even early on, giving him Ivermectin. “It’s just not part of our protocol”. We begged to try and the doctors would not consider it. Maybe they need a better protocol and those numbers would improve.

Thankfully he was given the plasma antibodies and within 2 hours, started to improve. Sadly, we had to stay on top of them for that too. Had 3 different nurses adamantly say that he’d already gotten it when we knew he had not. Finally found a nurse that did some digging and realized he never got it. It’s sad to think of how many patients have no one fighting for them. Just left with the “protocol”.

 

[Lt. Pete Mitchell]

I have to LOL at the people that think this thing will go away. It won’t. Ever.

This kind of genie doesn’t go back in the bottle. Even if vaccines that were 100% effective against the current plethora of variants existed, the amount of unvaccinated people worldwide and the mathematical inability and infrastructure to get everyone vaccinated in a window that would conquer current variants while not allowing for further mutation is an unsolvable problem. That’s not even accounting for the billions of animals that serve as virus factories for this thing. Even if we did manage to pull off the impossible and mass vaccinate the world in 24 hours, there are likely millions upon millions of animals with this right now and they will continue infecting each other repeatedly. All it takes is one variant to evade vaccines and then we are literally starting all over.

I fear that people are getting their hopes up for something that is, for all intents and purposes, a practical impossibility. At some point, we will all get a version COVID. Over and over and over again. At some point it will scale the ladder of mortality and overtake things like cancer and heart disease based on the sheer infectivity and variability of disease. If Delta doesn’t get you, Lambda is a threat. If Lambda doesn’t, Gamma is problematic.

The mathematical possibilities are infinite for this disease, and unfortunately we only have finite solutions to an incomprehensible magnitude of possibilities. It is infinite while we are not.

My suggestion would be to get used to the idea that everyone has a better than 50% chance of dying from COVID.

All the virus needs is one shot at you, and sadly it has an unlimited supply of ammo.

 

[Grantau]

@mrhickory

I'm pro vaccine. Big fan of them. Can't stress this point enough for the crazies that will reply to me.


Now saying that... I've listened to a few pod cast about covid the last few days and this wasn't from a fringe source, but the thing both these doctors agreed on was that covid was here to stay. That agreed that this type virus couldn't be beat with vaccines or herd immunity, because it could jump from species to species, and therefore we can't stamp it out, or really even stop the mutation of the virus into other forms.

Both agreed the long term hope was that vaccines would keep you from getting deadly sick and that eventually it would morph into a form that was similar to a cold.

This idea goes against the idea that everyone needs to be vaccinated today to stop it from mutating into another form that our vaccines don't protect against, since it's going to mutate regardless of what we do.

Thoughts?

so just take a shot every year…like the flu shot. I don’t see why it’s that hard.

 

[joshthecat55]

LSU's Mike the Tiger got vaccinated,I read

 

[Rusty Strings]

I am glad we have sanctioned China back to the Stone Age over this.

 

[griffna]

My uncle just got out of ICU at South Baldwin hospital with covid. He was very close to going on a vent. They refused to consider, even early on, giving him Ivermectin. “It’s just not part of our protocol”. We begged to try and the doctors would not consider it. Maybe they need a better protocol and those numbers would improve.

Thankfully he was given the plasma antibodies and within 2 hours, started to improve. Sadly, we had to stay on top of them for that too. Had 3 different nurses adamantly say that he’d already gotten it when we knew he had not. Finally found a nurse that did some digging and realized he never got it. It’s sad to think of how many patients have no one fighting for them. Just left with the “protocol”.

It’s scary to think about, but we had a similar experience when my mom was in the hospital in 2010. There were several nursing errors. She sat for several hours with an IV in her arm that no one ever started. You need someone fairly knowledgeable to advocate for your care and so many people don’t have that.

 

[Stumpfan]

As contagious as this thing is now, it is unlikely for the growth in cases and hospitalizations to keep exploding. Eventually, it has to run out of bodies and the number hospitalized is still a small portion of the total number of infected. By the time of the PSU game, it should be burning itself out regardless of vaccination status. The numbers actually should be dropping by the Akron game. One way or another, this pandemic will end soon.

It seems it leaks in each area in about 2 months. I think it could take around the same amount of time to bottom out. If that’s the case, these early states are about to peak by Labor Day and will then start dropping. Maybe by mid October, June like case numbers? Just looked at the uk graph and it looks like it ticked up slightly but that may be a fluke. A safe prediction is we are at very low cases at 10,000 nationwide by Halloween?

 

[penya87]

Gotta tag him but yes. The avg person infected with delta infects 6-8 others. In April 2020, it was 1-2 I believe. I think the hospital numbers are exploding because it affects non elderly more than in April 2020 or even April 2021 (alpha).

Okay.

Not to make this political... Florida has a 60% vaccination rate. That is better than average. Arguably the best in the Southeast. Better than NC too.

How is Florida so heavily impacted by Delta than the midwest states or great lakes states?

 

[homewood]

It’s scary to think about, but we had a similar experience when my mom was in the hospital in 2010. There were several nursing errors. She sat for several hours with an IV in her arm that no one ever started. You need someone fairly knowledgeable to advocate for your care and so many people don’t have that.

Yep. It was very difficult trying to stay on top of his situation over the phone too.

 

[cooncreek]

Agreed...

The bigger question the pod cast was discussing I listened to was...

If covid is here to stay and our goal is to have it morph into a mild illness aren't we just delaying that mutation with vaccines.

The panel was split on that answer.

I'm team vaccine because I believe it will keep you alive, while also allowing for the virus mutation.

my family doctor in Daphne told me last week "yeah, this shit's real." He has many patients at Thomas Hospital in Fairhope (around 30+ in the hospital and ICU and the ones needing ventilators are not vaccinated). He told me that it's possible (but unlikely) that I could get it, but if I did, it would be much less severe. I am vaccinated. I am going to trust the medical professionals over the politicians all day long.

 

[vanceme]

As contagious as this thing is now, it is unlikely for the growth in cases and hospitalizations to keep exploding. Eventually, it has to run out of bodies and the number hospitalized is still a small portion of the total number of infected. By the time of the PSU game, it should be burning itself out regardless of vaccination status. The numbers actually should be dropping by the Akron game. One way or another, this pandemic will end soon.

Maybe we talk about this in another thread. I have no problem with it being here but honesty at this point this is likely a worthy conversation with its own thread.

 

[Big Blue]

Saw this on Twitter last night from EAMC on their latest numbers.

View embedded media

The numbers I heard this morning for the Huntsville Hospital system was that COVID case admissions were up 30% over the last week and that 91% of those were unvaccinated. The overall numbers are still relatively low, I think, like fewer than 200 patients. But I could be wrong about that.