Futures are deep deep red…

[aler]

You are thinking of I Bonds aka inflation bonds. Backed by the full credit of the US Govt. Next round of I bonds will have about a 9% yield, fully guaranteed so long as the US Treasury doesn’t run out of money.

Downfalls: only allowed to buy $10k per year ($20k if married), MUST hold for minimum of 1 year, if you sell before 5 years you lose 3 months of interest payments. Interest payments pay monthly and compound twice a year.

The 10 year treasury note currently yields a little over 3%, price down nearly 20% for the year after a 40 year bull run (36 of last 40 years were positive return). But on 1/1/22 they were under 1.5% yield, so the amount of time it has taken the yield to double (and consequently, the time it has taken the price of bonds to fall) is pretty spectacular.

the US treasury has no money now, we are 30 trillion in debt and have unfunded liabilities that no one even talks about. we must stop spending on social programs its not sustainable

 

[Eagle]

Wouldn’t buy much of anything other than volitality now…

Nothing is trading. New issuance is dead w/ Carvana just under the wire in miserable fashing and deals are getting pulled left and right. HYG has volmeggon written all over it. Another market tantrum is close, with perhaps several more to follow, and if Powell/yellen hold to course the beatings will resume and will be savage. I

Also, liquidity has dried up, the fed is still doing 2T in RRepos every day, plus QT is about to start…. Fun times.

 

[aler]

Not bad at all? Compared to what. Did all of this not happen? https://www.history.com/topics/21st-century/great-recession-timeline

It was not a fundamentals crash it all happened because the US government forced banks to lend to people who had no way of repaying the defaults had a ripple effect and wiped out banks. It was a political recession. This one is also because of the stupid stimulus deals and 0% interest. The fed did this to satisfy political needs. The Russia thing tipped the scale. We never should have shut own the world over a virus no matter how deadly

 

[overman185]

Wait until the food shortages hit

The mysterious destruction of 18 plus food processing plants is very disconcerting

 

[aler]

Wouldn’t buy much of anything other than volitality now…

Nothing is trading. New issuance is dead w/ Carvana just under the wire in miserable fashing and deals are getting pulled left and right. HYG has volmeggon written all over it. Another market tantrum is close, with perhaps several more to follow, and if Powell/yellen hold to course the beatings will resume and will be savage.

we need to go up 4% more, its time to make the politicians on both sides grow up

 

[aler]

The mysterious destruction of 18 plus food processing plants is very disconcerting

yep , something aint right. good news is the country will lose weight

 

[CJ3131]

yep , something aint right. good news is the country will lose weight

@SH0RTS

 

[aler]

We’re probably already there or close. Most people ignored the detail in the jobs report…

1) February & March both revised down.

2) Unemployment rate did not fall as expected.

3) Labor Force Participation Rate fell.

4) Hours Worked fell.

5) Average Hourly Earnings came in softer than expected. We’ve had 11 or 12 straight months of negative real earnings.

These are all signposts of a market that’s inflecting and about to get worse… NASDAQ will be 30% down in a few days tho there maybe a few dead cat bounces - good times to buy volitality - which the market hasnt’ been volatile, it’s been violnt.

worker productivity dropped 10% the largest drop since 1947 . Working from home does not work in the macro

 

[Eagle]

we need to go up 4% more, its time to make the politicians on both sides grow up

The damn gorilla in the room nobody is talking about is Federal Spending. With somewhere around 80% of the debt funded short term, as rates go from 0.2% to 3 or 4%, the interest expense, will increase - 20 fold on the refinanced and new debt. Right now we spend about 18% of taxes collected on debt service, now multiply that by 5, 10 or 20…..

And people/politicans for decades thought federal debt didn’t matter….

 

[Docdumpsta]

 

[CJ3131]

MY PUFFER!!!!!!!!!!

WOOD!!!!!

 

[Docdumpsta]

MY PUFFER!!!!!!!!!!

WOOD!!!!!

PAPA BARE,
Several of uz are HIGHLY KUNCERNED about yore AFRIN ADDICTION!!!!!!
Pleeeeze seek help!!! PLEEEEEEEEEEEEEEZE!!

@crococile22
@Henrytd20

 

[CJ3131]

PAPA BARE,
Several of uz are HIGHLY KUNCERNED about yore AFRIN ADDICTION!!!!!!
Pleeeeze seek help!!! PLEEEEEEEEEEEEEEZE!!

@crococile22
@Henrytd20

DOC!!!
It’s real-
I need help!
You and @crococile22 look at what I am about to send!
Call @Henrytd20 to help me please!!

 

[aler]

The damn gorilla in the room nobody is talking about is Federal Spending. With somewhere around 80% of the debt funded short term, as rates go from 0.2% to 3 or 4%, the interest expense, will increase - 20 fold on the refinanced and new debt. Right now we spend about 18% of taxes collected on debt service, now multiply that by 5, 10 or 20…..

And people/politicans for decades thought federal debt didn’t matter….

truth

 

[AU_Panther]

It was not a fundamentals crash it all happened because the US government forced banks to lend to people who had no way of repaying the defaults had a ripple effect and wiped out banks. It was a political recession. This one is also because of the stupid stimulus deals and 0% interest. The fed did this to satisfy political needs. The Russia thing tipped the scale. We never should have shut own the world over a virus no matter how deadly

The causes are one thing, but the effect is another. It was a terrible recession, regardless of the cause. I can’t say whether or not we should have shutdown or not. I’m not sure we had much choice. But I am shocked at it. Because I thought it would be no way that we’ll sacrifice our economy, over anything.

 

[aler]

The causes are one thing, but the effect is another. It was a terrible recession, regardless of the cause. I can’t say whether or not we should have shutdown or not. I’m not sure we had much choice. But I am shocked at it. Because I thought it would be no way that we’ll sacrifice our economy, over anything.

Nor should we have.

 

[wareagle1977]

Wait until the food shortages hit

People just do realize how possible major shortages are to becoming a reality.

 

[FIG-JAM]

CNBC is in the entertainment business. I did try their CNBC Pro product and they recommended dinosaur stocks like MasterCard. I did pick up caterpillar as recommended and canceled the sub.

I’ve found podcasts to be my go-to. Mel Faber, we study billionaires, motley fool, etc

just ask the bunker

kinda serious. Lots of knowledge and various viewpoints*

*some don’t like various viewpoints so viewer discretion is advised

 

[Docdumpsta]

just ask the bunker

kinda serious. Lots of knowledge and various viewpoints*

*some don’t like various viewpoints so viewer discretion is advised

FIGGGGY POOO,
Tuff weekend for our softball and bazeball teeeemz. Went 1-5 KUMBINED.

 

[warrech]

the term means nothing its the reality thats the problem. we have to end government handouts, we cant keep printing money

 

[Powerman26]

right now there is a serious baby formula shortage

Good news. Moms make there own formula.

 

[FIG-JAM]

FIGGGGY POOO,
Tuff weekend for our softball and bazeball teeeemz. Went 1-5 KUMBINED.

I heard the umps cost us 4 of the 5 games.

 

[Powerman26]

I just want to start an investment account for my kids and put $20/ month in it set on aggressive. I know there are certain rules about counting chores as work or some nonsense but there’s got to be an easy way to start an ira or whatever for a kid that they will eventually inherit. Who do I go to for that and what do I ask for?

Start an Acorn account for them. DM me your email address so I can get credit for referring you.

 

[FIG-JAM]

FIGGGGY POOO,
Tuff weekend for our softball and bazeball teeeemz. Went 1-5 KUMBINED.

im worried about the girls baseballers. Errbody says that Lowe is hurt,

I’m worried that she had a sophomore slump more than anything. I just don’t think coaches pitch pitchers when they have pain in their arm. Curious if she can bounce back and be dominant.

 

[Freezes Burner Phone]

It’s still obvious. Dems getting their asses handed to them in a few months

I’m not quite as confident. Democrats have something to motivate them to show up now.

 

[goombaby]

I've also enjoyed reading this guy's blog/website. It's free. He makes some interesting points on economics.

Www.awealthofcommonsense.com

@Docdumpsta @Rusty Strings @Bo-jobs_4_Tanks Big-D

Ben is one of the best in the business at explaining complicated economic/finance issues. The rest of the Ritholtz crew is very good as well.

Josh Brown- https://thereformedbroker.com/
Michael Batnick- https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/

 

[Docdumpsta]

im worried about the girls baseballers. Errbody says that Lowe is hurt,

I’m worried that she had a sophomore slump more than anything. I just don’t think coaches pitch pitchers when they have pain in their arm. Curious if she can bounce back and be dominant.

I ain't gottta klue wutz going on wit the LOWE girl.
I wood agreeee that COACHES generally don't pitch pitchaz wit "INJURED ARMS."
We may have to wait a yeeer to see if she kan reee-gain her freshman form or not.
PENTA haz been REEELY GOOOD doe.

 

[FIG-JAM]

I ain't gottta klue wutz going on wit the LOWE girl.
I wood agreeee that COACHES generally don't pitch pitchaz wit "INJURED ARMS."
We may have to wait a yeeer to see if she kan reee-gain her freshman form or not.
PENTA haz been REEELY GOOOD doe.

non of it matters doe. Oklahoma 10 run rules everyone anyway

 

[aler]

Good news. Moms make there own formula.

another clueless post

 

[Powerman26]

another clueless post

Explain it to me oulde man. Mom’s absolutely have the ability to feed their babies.

 

[gatorz1209]

@SH0RTS

Imma need a name on that first one

 

[Stumpfan]

Who the hell created the mess we’re in now and why??? SMDH.

You tell me. Oh wait. I know who you think it is. Lol

 

[Jay G. Tate]

its a perfect storm, we will pay for the Wuhan nonsense for generations.

You said it was fake. What nonsense?

 

[warrech]

I’m not quite as confident. Democrats have something to motivate them to show up now.

Both parties do. “Stolen election”, abortion rights, inflation, recession, Trump (those for and against) will end up causing the masses to vote.

 

[Stumpfan]

The damn gorilla in the room nobody is talking about is Federal Spending. With somewhere around 80% of the debt funded short term, as rates go from 0.2% to 3 or 4%, the interest expense, will increase - 20 fold on the refinanced and new debt. Right now we spend about 18% of taxes collected on debt service, now multiply that by 5, 10 or 20…..

And people/politicans for decades thought federal debt didn’t matter….

Finally some truth.

 

[Freezes Burner Phone]

Both parties do. “Stolen election”, abortion rights, inflation, recession, Trump (those for and against) will end up causing the masses to vote.

Oh I agree. Just saying I was expecting it to be pretty one sided, prior to the leak. Granted, it leaked so early, who knows if our little attention spans will even remember it by then.

 

[Stumpfan]

I’m not quite as confident. Democrats have something to motivate them to show up now.

Dems have a chance to keep the debate now but not the house. The abortion thing will be much bigger in 24 after the country lives with it. Also, IUD’s, morning after pill and IVF will be banned in some states.

 

[warrech]

Lowering the deficit by $1.5 trillion in 2022. Largest net deficit reduction. Interesting stat

 

[Bruuuuuuce]

You said it was fake. What nonsense?

perhaps it is the nonsense that the media has memory holed how it began, coincidentally near a level 4 virus research center, and now that evidence strongly suggests it was leaked from there its just water under the bridge to the media who dont want to somehow be accused of being racist for simply suggesting the Chinese communist government is evil? that nonsense

 

[Freezes Burner Phone]

Dems have a chance to keep the debate now but not the house. The abortion thing will be much bigger in 24 after the country lives with it. Also, IUD’s, morning after pill and IVF will be banned in some states.

If they take it that far, in regards to contraceptives, they might as well hang it up. I can’t imagine there is anything that resembles majority support for something like that.