Do you think a recession happens overnight? By definition it takes at least 6 months.
Futures are deep deep red…
- Thread starter WarEagle2727
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Hedgeye advises hedgefunds managing $T in investments. They got me out before the market fell much. They offer a subscription for retail invertors like myself. I have been a subscriber for several years. I highly recommend.
can you explain more about bonds and how I should buy them? I've been seriously thinkning about buying huge amounts of bonds (10yr treasury was 10% if I read correctly) but I don't know much about it.
At least we can stop comparing this cycle to dotcom crash. Small caps with legitimate revenue or positive free cash flow have already been obliterated.
I also don’t know shit about bonds and I’m no OG baller, but as the interest rates go up why not just park your money into short duration CDs.
It's crazy right now in my job. Kinda cheap too. We're buying 30yr bonds yielding 5.8%.
Most casual bond investors like yourself aren't too interested in duration so they settle for 5,7,10 yr bonds. Clorox just issued a great 10yr bond around 4.5% I think. There's some good high yield stuff out there that you may be interested in as well (Yum! Brands comes to mind). I would talk with your Financial Consultant for the best guidance. If you don't have one, you can set up an appointment with your local bank FC.
You are thinking of I Bonds aka inflation bonds. Backed by the full credit of the US Govt. Next round of I bonds will have about a 9% yield, fully guaranteed so long as the US Treasury doesn’t run out of money.
Downfalls: only allowed to buy $10k per year ($20k if married), MUST hold for minimum of 1 year, if you sell before 5 years you lose 3 months of interest payments. Interest payments pay monthly and compound twice a year.
The 10 year treasury note currently yields a little over 3%, price down nearly 20% for the year after a 40 year bull run (36 of last 40 years were positive return). But on 1/1/22 they were under 1.5% yield, so the amount of time it has taken the yield to double (and consequently, the time it has taken the price of bonds to fall) is pretty spectacular.
Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP qualifies right? Last quarter was negative 1.5.
It’s still obvious. Dems getting their asses handed to them in a few months
Also, '01 and '20 recession did not have two negative quarters, but everyone knows those were recessions
If you need liquidity, I think you are exactly right RE: short duration CD’s. Ladder strategy so as one matures, another begins to take advantage of rising interest rates.
If you aren’t retiring for 10+ years and have your liquidity in order (ie you don’t need the money today), hold your nose and buy equities/index funds/mutual funds/ETFs/SMA’s. Buy quality companies with clean balance sheets that have competitive moats that can take advantage of the inevitable upcoming consolidation period. Buy companies that pay dividends, that have grown dividends consistently, but have a low payout ratio (ie not all of their free cash flow goes to paying dividends). They are out there and there is money to be made by being a long term holder of quality companies.
If you’re in your 20s - 50s and aren’t living paycheck to paycheck, there is a lot of $ to be made when you continue to buy and hold quality when times are tough.
Not sure if serious. You'd be surprised if so... There's not enough proper finance channels on TV and everyone doesn't have access to Bloomberg TV or Blooomberg terminal, FT, WSJ, Credit Sights, Barclays, Moody's as an online source so what do regular people (non-finance nerds) revert to? Ah, you guessed it..... CNBC
What indicators are you, @warjags and @Wall Street Guy looking at to identify the likelihood of recession is coming. I want some Michael Burry level analysis here and not just CNBC noise. I already check out the Fred 10/2 and DXY. Both aren’t great.
I agree the recession doesn’t happen over night, but you can also be in one and not know it yet. CNBC can always change their tune at a later date.
CNBC is in the entertainment business. I did try their CNBC Pro product and they recommended dinosaur stocks like MasterCard. I did pick up caterpillar as recommended and canceled the sub.
I’ve found podcasts to be my go-to. Mel Faber, we study billionaires, motley fool, etc
CNBC PRO IS A ****ING JOKE. that whole thing made me pissed for everyday people who thought it would be beneficial. It's basically Jim Cramer's shitty list of advice. Such a ripoff
I’m not sure about Seeking Alpha. I try to follow some of their writers that I like the most. Sometimes it seems like some of their writers are in bed with shorts.
I now use CML Viz, Commonstock, and Tikr, and that’s about it.
I've also enjoyed reading this guy's blog/website. It's free. He makes some interesting points on economics.
Www.awealthofcommonsense.com
@Docdumpsta @Rusty Strings @Bo-jobs_4_Tanks Big-D
I've been spoiled with Bloomberg access so I don't have too many outside resources I utilize besides the ones I mentioned in the previous reply to wall street
I reallllly like bloomberg. I'm one of the people who made a ton of money on crypto and stocks in the last 10 years, paid for everything (car paid off, school paid off, house with 20% down), and then cashed out around 14 months ago, everything except oil. I'm up 68% over the last 12 months on SLB which makes up 40% of my portfolio and the rest is cash.
I'm winning, pretty hard, but in this environment its pretty hard for me to see a path forward to those kinds of gains in the future so I'm adjusting my strategy and I think now is a good time for those with cash to be into bonds, it sucks though because bonds feel like a totally different animal and idk how to buy them. I'll take a very solid 20y bond with a much better return over a 10y but man I just don't know wtf else to do, gotta sell oil eventually as well, but not yet obviously.
Most money I ever made in the market was from listening to farmers in 2014-15. They said corn was about to skyrocket so I invested accordingly. Three short months later I cashed in on my fixed price. It’s crazy now. I bought IMPP at $2 and sold at $6.40. A week later it started the downward spiral. All I have now are long term holds. Bank and tech stocks that waver, but have upward trajectory. Always money to be made, but just have to know what side to be on.
I just want to start an investment account for my kids and put $20/ month in it set on aggressive. I know there are certain rules about counting chores as work or some nonsense but there’s got to be an easy way to start an ira or whatever for a kid that they will eventually inherit. Who do I go to for that and what do I ask for?
This is it. My baby who just needs generic formula has no shortage of options (I will admit we’ve had to switch to a generic from the brand name product). It’s the specialized formulas that are short.
I’ll be shocked if we stave off recession. I just hope that it’s not a deep one like we had in ‘08.
We put $200 a month into a 529 for each kid. It adds up fast and can be used for all education expenses.
Custodial accounts. Research them. I run one for each of my two kids.
“And put 20/ month in it set on aggressive”
I’m pretty confused on what kind of account you want. You’re going to to be trading. Nobody else will. They’re not like passive life cycle funds where you can determine how aggressive the investment fund will be.
We’re probably already there or close. Most people ignored the detail in the jobs report…
1) February & March both revised down.
2) Unemployment rate did not fall as expected.
3) Labor Force Participation Rate fell.
4) Hours Worked fell.
5) Average Hourly Earnings came in softer than expected. We’ve had 11 or 12 straight months of negative real earnings.
These are all signposts of a market that’s inflecting and about to get worse… NASDAQ will be 30% down in a few days tho there maybe a few dead cat bounces - good times to buy volitality - which the market hasnt’ been volatile, it’s been violent.
wheat is the futures ride of the year. The Ukraine provides 30%
Yep. That’s fine though, it’s probably going to take me two years to build this house anyway the way it’s sounding.
the term means nothing its the reality thats the problem. we have to end government handouts, we cant keep printing money
Not bad at all? Compared to what. Did all of this not happen? https://www.history.com/topics/21st-century/great-recession-timeline
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