Excerpt below. Consider a sub to
The Athletic.
Strongest underdog contenders this year
So who’s left? According to our research, CFP party crashers should come from this
group of seven teams.
Auburn
Conference: SEC
2023 record: 6-7
Championship odds: +12000
Auburn capped the 2023 season with three dreadful losses: a 31-10 stumble vs.
New Mexico State, the agonizing last-minute Iron Bowl crusher, and a blowout against Maryland in the Music City Bowl. Fortunately for the Tigers, our analysis shows no significant carryover effect of losing streaks for potential breakout teams. Instead, it likes what it sees in Auburn: a team sitting just outside the top 20 in championship odds with a head coach in his second year with the program, new coordinators and terrific recent recruiting results.
Further, the Tigers managed to lose more games than they won last year while scoring more points than they gave up. That’s the type of misfortune that usually wears off, as
Kansas,
Oklahoma and Texas A&M all showed last year. It doesn’t necessarily indicate a championship-level breakout is coming, but it is a strong signal that a team will improve as its results align with its underlying performance — especially if it keeps a lot of the same personnel.
For instance, over the past 11 seasons, 31 teams posted records under .500 despite outscoring their opponents, then retained at least 13 starters, including their quarterback, according to
Steve Makinen of VSiN. The following season, those teams improved their win totals by an average of 16 percent and their performance against the spread by 53 percent. This time around, Auburn is in that group.
