- Mobile QBs – in the SEC, uat is 3-0 vs traditional passing QBs and 1-3 vs mobile QBs. And the 1 was USCe, a very close game at uat.
- Strong rush defenses – If we cut Rush D ranking off at 38th or higher (yes it’s a bit artificial but work with me) uat is 1-3. Rush D's that are 39th or worse, uat is 3-0. Auburn is 21st in rush D.
- Teams that run the ball a lot – even if they don’t have a ton of success. SEC teams that ran the ball most vs uat were 3-1. There is some cause and effect here, in that teams that are behind throw more. But there is also some correlation outside of that.
For #1, AU has a fairly mobile QB. #2 AU has a strong rush defense. #3 is more concerning, as we throw more than the teams that beat uat. Especially if they stack the box, which uat will. So we do 2 of the 3 things that cause them problems.
Other notes, and it’s purely stats, so I get the pushback. It’s just informational. Vs. SEC opponents, statistically,
uat holds teams to 10.6 pts below their average
uat holds teams to 31 ypg rushing below their average
uat holds teams to 9 ypg passing below their average
AU has shown good but uneven improvement on offense, and very good, consistent improvement on defense.
uat has been all over the place on offense and defense. There really isn’t a trend for them – it’s almost a crap shoot whether they’ll play well or suck. The waste of talent there is near criminal. Mark Richt would be proud.
If you go purely off stats (I know, I know), at a neutral site AU would score 19 and uat would score 18. With it being at uat, it’s probably lined up for a 21-17 (uat by 4) type game. Turnovers, breaks, officiating, effort all will factor in, obviously.
Take it all FWIW.
I’ll go the homer route and say we steal it 20-17 with a walk-off field goal.
