A couple thoughts keep popping up in my head regarding the Auburn/Malzahn situation. I just wanted to run through them with the group.
1. Auburn is legitimately a Top 10-15 program at the moment. That creates a significant divide among the fans that are comfortable with that current positioning and those that believe Auburn can consistently be a Top 5-10 program.
1a. One thing that Auburn is not is a dumpster fire. For example.. Tennessee from 2008-2014 did not have a win total above 7 wins. They had two seasons of 9-wins in 2015-16. They then had 4-win and 5-win seasons. They will need to win the final two games this season to be above .500.
1b. Another thing.. Auburn is not necessarily about to be passed by Texas A&M or any other team in the SEC West. Since joining the SEC, Texas A&M has had one great season with 11 wins. The rest have been an average of 8 wins per year. The rest of the West is notably worse than A&M.
This is important because the idea that Auburn is losing ground in West is not true. Nor is the idea that we have become a dumpster fire. But that doesn't mean its enough, it also doesn't necessarily mean we have enough to get where we want to be.
2. A lot has been fairly made about the Malzahn record vs. Auburn rivals. That record is not arguably good for him in any manner. The question is what is needed to get past those rivals. There is little reason to think, that while Auburn is better than 10 other SEC teams, that Gus is person capable of putting Auburn above at least 12 other SEC teams.
3. Is making a change worth the gamble that Auburn ascends? We have seen multiple times this season the margin for success and failure is really small. And while that margin for success is small, to take that next step is not small. It's not about being one game better, we need to be consistently two games better.
3a. We have seen Tommy Tuberville beat the shit out of bama... but he also sleepwalked through Arkansas, got out played by a 7-win Georgia Tech team, or let South Florida beat his ass in JHS. I say this because just beating bama is not enough. Auburn people want it all and want it all more consistently. But does that really exist??
3b. Gene Chizik did nothing more than catch lightning in a bottle with landing the greatest football player on the planet. Not to mention Gus Malzahn was directly connected to that season. How in the world did neither Gus or Gene take that Cam Newton highlight tape into the living room of every momma of every 5-star DT QB??
What does all this mean to me..
I think Auburn is in a unique position of being poised to take the next step toward more consistent greatness.... but it has been poised to do that for 20+ years.
This is not a failure of just Gus but every coach since him in the modern era. Auburn has hired mediocrity in its head coaches since Bowden. I do not believe we are one Butch Jones away from a era of being a dumpster fire. We fire those coaches. What the coaches of the modern era demonstrate is that Auburn is capable of greatness in special seasons. They just don't lend themselves to sustained periods of great success.
In my opinion, if you want to fire Gus, you do so when you know that the next coach has the pedigree and the ability to make this program consistently great. You don't overthink the next coach. You get the fvcking best and you give them the money they want.
Bob Stoops has had 14 seasons of double digit wins.
You want to be a consistent contender, you have to decide if you are actually willing to do what it takes to do that.
TL: DR - Stop playing games, and hire BGB.
1. Auburn is legitimately a Top 10-15 program at the moment. That creates a significant divide among the fans that are comfortable with that current positioning and those that believe Auburn can consistently be a Top 5-10 program.
1a. One thing that Auburn is not is a dumpster fire. For example.. Tennessee from 2008-2014 did not have a win total above 7 wins. They had two seasons of 9-wins in 2015-16. They then had 4-win and 5-win seasons. They will need to win the final two games this season to be above .500.
1b. Another thing.. Auburn is not necessarily about to be passed by Texas A&M or any other team in the SEC West. Since joining the SEC, Texas A&M has had one great season with 11 wins. The rest have been an average of 8 wins per year. The rest of the West is notably worse than A&M.
This is important because the idea that Auburn is losing ground in West is not true. Nor is the idea that we have become a dumpster fire. But that doesn't mean its enough, it also doesn't necessarily mean we have enough to get where we want to be.
2. A lot has been fairly made about the Malzahn record vs. Auburn rivals. That record is not arguably good for him in any manner. The question is what is needed to get past those rivals. There is little reason to think, that while Auburn is better than 10 other SEC teams, that Gus is person capable of putting Auburn above at least 12 other SEC teams.
3. Is making a change worth the gamble that Auburn ascends? We have seen multiple times this season the margin for success and failure is really small. And while that margin for success is small, to take that next step is not small. It's not about being one game better, we need to be consistently two games better.
3a. We have seen Tommy Tuberville beat the shit out of bama... but he also sleepwalked through Arkansas, got out played by a 7-win Georgia Tech team, or let South Florida beat his ass in JHS. I say this because just beating bama is not enough. Auburn people want it all and want it all more consistently. But does that really exist??
3b. Gene Chizik did nothing more than catch lightning in a bottle with landing the greatest football player on the planet. Not to mention Gus Malzahn was directly connected to that season. How in the world did neither Gus or Gene take that Cam Newton highlight tape into the living room of every momma of every 5-star DT QB??
What does all this mean to me..
I think Auburn is in a unique position of being poised to take the next step toward more consistent greatness.... but it has been poised to do that for 20+ years.
This is not a failure of just Gus but every coach since him in the modern era. Auburn has hired mediocrity in its head coaches since Bowden. I do not believe we are one Butch Jones away from a era of being a dumpster fire. We fire those coaches. What the coaches of the modern era demonstrate is that Auburn is capable of greatness in special seasons. They just don't lend themselves to sustained periods of great success.
In my opinion, if you want to fire Gus, you do so when you know that the next coach has the pedigree and the ability to make this program consistently great. You don't overthink the next coach. You get the fvcking best and you give them the money they want.
Bob Stoops has had 14 seasons of double digit wins.
You want to be a consistent contender, you have to decide if you are actually willing to do what it takes to do that.
TL: DR - Stop playing games, and hire BGB.
