The last week of the regular season is here, and the postseason outlook for the league is shaping up. There are 8 teams that I think are now locked into a regional with Bama and aTm on the cusp of locking up a spot. Georgia, by virtue of losing their series at Mizzou this past weekend, has essentially been eliminated from the NCAA Regionals barring a sweep of LSU this weekend and a deep run in Hoover. And while the top 8 seed grouping seems pretty clear, the potential for hosts in the SEC is very much up in the air right now.
Mizzou, UGA, and Miss St are battling for the final two spots in Hoover, and while Mizzou and UGA have big leads, Miss St’s series win over LSU last weekend might get the boys in Starkville fired up and thinking they have something to play for this last weekend against aTm. Mizzou and UGA are both 10-17, two games ahead of State who is 8-19. State has to sweep this weekend and hope either Mizzou or UGA gets swept because State holds no tiebreakers against either. Ultimately, I think the two Mississippi schools miss Hoover this year.
On the regional host possibilities, I think Arkansas, Florida, Vandy, and LSU have locked up host spots and are very close to locking up national seeds. LSU has scuffled a bit lately, dropping series to both Auburn on the road and at home against Miss St, but I think they have a bounceback weekend at UGA and secure a top 8 spot.
My thought is the SEC gets 6 total hosts. So that leaves two spots for 5 potential teams. South Carolina and Kentucky are 15-11/15-12 and probably need 2 more SEC wins to lock up spots. Tennessee and Auburn are 14-13 and probably need to get to 17 wins as well to feel like they have a chance to leapfrog SCar or UK and take a spot from them. Bama still has a shot at 13-14 because they play Ole Miss at home this weekend and a have a really good RPI. But, even with a sweep of OM to get to 16-14, I think they’re going to need to win a game or two in Hoover to truly get into the host mix. Here’s the RPI and last weekend opponent for each of the 5 teams:
Auburn (RPI 20): Mizzou
South Carolina (3): Tennessee
Kentucky (1): Florida
Tennessee (22): at SCar
Bama (11): Ole Miss
I think the loser of the Tenn-Scar series will be eliminated from hosting. And with Tennessee being so bad on the road in SEC play this year, that bodes well for South Carolina. UK has a TOUGH series against a hot Florida team. I’m not sure I see them winning that series, but if they do, they will lock themselves into hosting with a potential to backdoor their way to a national seed spot. I think Bama sweeps Ole Miss. and I think Auburn takes 2 of 3 from a Mizzou team that’s playing pretty well right now, albeit most of that has come at home recently.
This is how I see the SEC finishing with the seeding for Hoover:
1 Florida 20-10 **
2 Arkansas 20-10 **
3 LSU 19-10 **
4 Vandy 19-11 **
5 South Carolina 17-12 *
6 Auburn 16-14
7 Kentucky 16-14
8 Bama 16-14
9 Tennessee 15-15
10 Texas A&M 14-16
11 Missouri 11-19
12 Georgia 11-19
13 Miss St 9-21
14 Ole Miss 6-24
I think the last host site will be determined between AU, UK, and Bama by whoever performs well the first couple days of Hoover. UK and Bama have an advantage over Auburn in the RPI, but Auburn’s resume is strong with 14 RPI top 50 wins and 23 RPI top 100 wins. That battle will be fascinating to watch. An Auburn sweep of Missouri might be what is needed to put Auburn ahead of the other two.
Mizzou, UGA, and Miss St are battling for the final two spots in Hoover, and while Mizzou and UGA have big leads, Miss St’s series win over LSU last weekend might get the boys in Starkville fired up and thinking they have something to play for this last weekend against aTm. Mizzou and UGA are both 10-17, two games ahead of State who is 8-19. State has to sweep this weekend and hope either Mizzou or UGA gets swept because State holds no tiebreakers against either. Ultimately, I think the two Mississippi schools miss Hoover this year.
On the regional host possibilities, I think Arkansas, Florida, Vandy, and LSU have locked up host spots and are very close to locking up national seeds. LSU has scuffled a bit lately, dropping series to both Auburn on the road and at home against Miss St, but I think they have a bounceback weekend at UGA and secure a top 8 spot.
My thought is the SEC gets 6 total hosts. So that leaves two spots for 5 potential teams. South Carolina and Kentucky are 15-11/15-12 and probably need 2 more SEC wins to lock up spots. Tennessee and Auburn are 14-13 and probably need to get to 17 wins as well to feel like they have a chance to leapfrog SCar or UK and take a spot from them. Bama still has a shot at 13-14 because they play Ole Miss at home this weekend and a have a really good RPI. But, even with a sweep of OM to get to 16-14, I think they’re going to need to win a game or two in Hoover to truly get into the host mix. Here’s the RPI and last weekend opponent for each of the 5 teams:
Auburn (RPI 20): Mizzou
South Carolina (3): Tennessee
Kentucky (1): Florida
Tennessee (22): at SCar
Bama (11): Ole Miss
I think the loser of the Tenn-Scar series will be eliminated from hosting. And with Tennessee being so bad on the road in SEC play this year, that bodes well for South Carolina. UK has a TOUGH series against a hot Florida team. I’m not sure I see them winning that series, but if they do, they will lock themselves into hosting with a potential to backdoor their way to a national seed spot. I think Bama sweeps Ole Miss. and I think Auburn takes 2 of 3 from a Mizzou team that’s playing pretty well right now, albeit most of that has come at home recently.
This is how I see the SEC finishing with the seeding for Hoover:
1 Florida 20-10 **
2 Arkansas 20-10 **
3 LSU 19-10 **
4 Vandy 19-11 **
5 South Carolina 17-12 *
6 Auburn 16-14
7 Kentucky 16-14
8 Bama 16-14
9 Tennessee 15-15
10 Texas A&M 14-16
11 Missouri 11-19
12 Georgia 11-19
13 Miss St 9-21
14 Ole Miss 6-24
I think the last host site will be determined between AU, UK, and Bama by whoever performs well the first couple days of Hoover. UK and Bama have an advantage over Auburn in the RPI, but Auburn’s resume is strong with 14 RPI top 50 wins and 23 RPI top 100 wins. That battle will be fascinating to watch. An Auburn sweep of Missouri might be what is needed to put Auburn ahead of the other two.
