My apologies to @Jay G. Tate and the collective Bunker, as I did not get this piece to the commodore in time for proper editing and format, so I humbly present it in post form this morning.
Know the Enemy: Texas A&M
For the chaos, tumult, and disappointment that Auburn football has seen this season, the Aggies have seen just as much. Ranking Texas A&M in the top ten in the preseason makes sense when you assume their collection of players with NFL starting potential are developed and their performance translates to the field. So far it hasn't, and unlike Auburn, they don't have a leadership change to look forward to.
Defensive coordinator DJ Durkin has been consistently successful at multiple stops, and just last season had rebooted Ole Miss's defense into a competent unit. Durkin bases out of an aggressive 4-2-5 built around versatile safeties that can make plays in space. A&M's best player on either side of the ball is safety Antonio Johnson, who can bounce back and forth between man coverage "slot corner" duties and being a roving play-maker in the middle of the field. He's a six foot three Swiss Army knife on defense that NFL teams will covet. However, Johnson has struggled with a lower body injury the last few weeks and could be limited or even MIA for this game. Jardin Gilbert has been a super productive partner for Johnson on the back end of the defense. He's second on the team in tackles and leads the team in interceptions.
One of the Aggies' super recruits from this past class, Jacoby Matthews, filled in for Johnson against Florida and showed similar versatility and production. He's a player to watch as his playing time grows and he gains in experience. Matthews could be the guy Durkin uses to spy Robby Ashford on critical downs.
Senior Chris Russell Junior mans the middle of the defense from the Mike LB position, leads the team in tackles, and is the squad's most effective blitzer. Russell often blitzes on first down in an attempt to hit teams for a loss and put them off schedule and behind the sticks.
The Aggie defensive line looks the part. On the hoof they look like an NFL defensive front that is built to wreck opposing offensive lines with a combination of size and athleticism that is tough to match. McKinley Jackson is a 325 pound behemoth in the middle. Shemar Turner is built and moves like a 4XL linebacker, and Fadil Diggs has every physical tool that a coach could want a player to have. Something is just amiss with this group as the Aggies have the worst run defense in the SEC. It seems like it is a combination of too much attempted movement that too often forfeits gap integrity up front, and a reliance on athleticism over technique. Regardless, as talented as they are this defensive front has under achieved.
Jimbo Fisher's offense isn't cutting edge. It doesn't challenge defenses with motions, tempo, or creative formations. Fisher has always relied on using a multitude of option route concepts that rely on the quarterback and wide receivers making effective pre and post snap reads, and being in sync, to make defenses wrong and produce yardage efficiently. None of Fisher's quarterbacks, this season, have played enough nor demonstrated the instincts to effectively navigate his offensive system. Auburn will see either Haynes King, who offers tremendous overall athleticism, but has a long awkward throwing motion that allows defenders to recover when he does make the right read, or Connor Weigman who is a more prototypical pocket passer but doesn't offer the same mobility as King to extend plays and evade the pass rush. Weigman does have a quicker release and seems to have a better understanding of where he is supposed to go with the ball in Fisher's scheme.
One thing that isn't lacking for this Aggie team is production on the ground. Devon Achane may be the fastest player in college football, and he's been eating up yardage in chunks. Achane is small-ish, but runs the inside zone, stretch, and counter with the tenacity of a bigger back, and absolute home run speed to go the distance once he gets to the second level.
Ainias Smith, the Aggies best receiving threat, was lost for the season earlier in the year. Freshman Evan Stewart has taken the lead role. Smith is a smaller receiver, ideally built for the slot, but has been moved around due to his route running prowess and overall consistency. NFL legacy Moose Muhammad III is the vertical threat of the group. The sophomore has a big catch radius and is the most physical option at the catch point. Muhammad gets more of the boundary side isolation options and back shoulder throws on critical passing downs.
The Aggie offensive line lost a lot last season. They did bring back three talented underclassmen, led by left guard Layden Robinson. Robinson is a big athletic people mover. He has the ability to displace defensive linemen off the snap and he moves extremely well as a puller blocking in space. Robinson has been inconsistent with his pad level and footwork all season, and hasn't been as effective as expected. As a whole this team blends zone and gap scheme concepts, with the frequency being dependent on whether the defense is in an odd or even man front. They've done enough to give Achane the opportunity to hit homeruns and keep the Aggies in games.
Randy Bond is a very capable place kicker with range beyond fifty yards who has been consistent throughout the season. In critical moments Achane will go back as a kick returner, and his speed has the ability to change games in that role.
What I'm Watching
Auburn's formational development on offense: Auburn adjusted in the second half last week and started going more FIB (formation into boundary) with multiple tight end looks, which effectively attacked the MSU defense who kept their alignment strength to the field. It worked, and Bigsby hit some big plays. I hope to see Auburn exploit more things they find during the game with the formational flexibility the tight end group provides.
Safety Play: Achane is going to get to the second level of the defense. Beating A&M means limiting him to that level. Auburn's safeties have to tackle well and not let 6 yard runs turn into 60 yard runs. If they limit Achane to two or less explosive runs over the course of the game, the Aggies may not be able to score enough to win. Conversely, Fisher will without a doubt attack Auburn's safeties with option routes in the passing game. They will have to be disciplined, play their rules, and not lose their eyes to the wrong place. A&M doesn't have elite receivers that can win with talent, so Auburn must not allow themselves to be out executed.
Linebackers: Who will play for AU? Last week we saw less Steiner, who has all the intangibles coaches love, but no production. Kam Riley was very active, and two walk-ons got reps on critical defensive possessions. The group as a whole was better. Will it continue? LB misreads against a back with this kind of speed can be absolutely terminal.
Critical Matchups
JD Rhym vs Moose Muhammad- Schmedding and Williams showed confidence last week leaving the freshman locked in man coverage on the backside. He performed well outside of one questionable penalty. With Pritchett being better in the slot corner role, Rhym needs to keep Moose locked up on third downs.
Council vs Jackson- Council spent way too much time in reverse and on the ground last week. Auburn has to play clean up front to have a chance. He can't get pushed into the backfield or displaced by the big DT. Council doesn't have to be great, he just needs to do his job.
Big Game Crystal Ball Predictions
Tank: Auburn has a new commitment to the run under Coach Caddy, has shown improved run schematic adjustments in game, and is facing the worst run defense in the league. 4 needs to put an exclamation point on this one.
Devon Achane: His speed plays on every field. Auburn has struggled to tackle at the second level all season, and has been prone to giving up chunk run plays, especially in the second half. Achane and Bigsby could have an absolute track meet.
Koy Moore: He's been on the verge of having big games. Texas A&M is having to shuffle a lot of defensive pieces in the secondary. I think Auburn moves him around and gets him involved in the intermediate game and lets him produce some run after catch yardage.
Derrick Hall: I'll get here in a moment.....
Prediction: This is a game between two struggling SEC teams, neither likely to see the post season, it shouldn't be a big game. HOWEVER, let's put this one in a vacuum. Auburn football was re-ignited last week. Carnell Williams's tenure, however long it may last, is something that absolutely brings out every drop of orange and blue soul from every single Auburn fan. The crowd will show up for this coach's team in a form that will rival any top five showdown Jordan-Hare has ever seen. There's a core group of guys on this team that won't quit, and will fight for Auburn to last damn second. That group is led by 29. Hall will have a chance to have some signature moments, especially if the less mobile quarterback is under center, and his effort will as always be insane. Absolute Auburn home field electricity, a big game on the ground from Tank, Hall creates at least one turnover that turns into points........
Go f********* crazy Cadillac!!!!!!! Auburn for the W!!!
Auburn 31-TAAMU 17
Know the Enemy: Texas A&M
For the chaos, tumult, and disappointment that Auburn football has seen this season, the Aggies have seen just as much. Ranking Texas A&M in the top ten in the preseason makes sense when you assume their collection of players with NFL starting potential are developed and their performance translates to the field. So far it hasn't, and unlike Auburn, they don't have a leadership change to look forward to.
Defensive coordinator DJ Durkin has been consistently successful at multiple stops, and just last season had rebooted Ole Miss's defense into a competent unit. Durkin bases out of an aggressive 4-2-5 built around versatile safeties that can make plays in space. A&M's best player on either side of the ball is safety Antonio Johnson, who can bounce back and forth between man coverage "slot corner" duties and being a roving play-maker in the middle of the field. He's a six foot three Swiss Army knife on defense that NFL teams will covet. However, Johnson has struggled with a lower body injury the last few weeks and could be limited or even MIA for this game. Jardin Gilbert has been a super productive partner for Johnson on the back end of the defense. He's second on the team in tackles and leads the team in interceptions.
One of the Aggies' super recruits from this past class, Jacoby Matthews, filled in for Johnson against Florida and showed similar versatility and production. He's a player to watch as his playing time grows and he gains in experience. Matthews could be the guy Durkin uses to spy Robby Ashford on critical downs.
Senior Chris Russell Junior mans the middle of the defense from the Mike LB position, leads the team in tackles, and is the squad's most effective blitzer. Russell often blitzes on first down in an attempt to hit teams for a loss and put them off schedule and behind the sticks.
The Aggie defensive line looks the part. On the hoof they look like an NFL defensive front that is built to wreck opposing offensive lines with a combination of size and athleticism that is tough to match. McKinley Jackson is a 325 pound behemoth in the middle. Shemar Turner is built and moves like a 4XL linebacker, and Fadil Diggs has every physical tool that a coach could want a player to have. Something is just amiss with this group as the Aggies have the worst run defense in the SEC. It seems like it is a combination of too much attempted movement that too often forfeits gap integrity up front, and a reliance on athleticism over technique. Regardless, as talented as they are this defensive front has under achieved.
Jimbo Fisher's offense isn't cutting edge. It doesn't challenge defenses with motions, tempo, or creative formations. Fisher has always relied on using a multitude of option route concepts that rely on the quarterback and wide receivers making effective pre and post snap reads, and being in sync, to make defenses wrong and produce yardage efficiently. None of Fisher's quarterbacks, this season, have played enough nor demonstrated the instincts to effectively navigate his offensive system. Auburn will see either Haynes King, who offers tremendous overall athleticism, but has a long awkward throwing motion that allows defenders to recover when he does make the right read, or Connor Weigman who is a more prototypical pocket passer but doesn't offer the same mobility as King to extend plays and evade the pass rush. Weigman does have a quicker release and seems to have a better understanding of where he is supposed to go with the ball in Fisher's scheme.
One thing that isn't lacking for this Aggie team is production on the ground. Devon Achane may be the fastest player in college football, and he's been eating up yardage in chunks. Achane is small-ish, but runs the inside zone, stretch, and counter with the tenacity of a bigger back, and absolute home run speed to go the distance once he gets to the second level.
Ainias Smith, the Aggies best receiving threat, was lost for the season earlier in the year. Freshman Evan Stewart has taken the lead role. Smith is a smaller receiver, ideally built for the slot, but has been moved around due to his route running prowess and overall consistency. NFL legacy Moose Muhammad III is the vertical threat of the group. The sophomore has a big catch radius and is the most physical option at the catch point. Muhammad gets more of the boundary side isolation options and back shoulder throws on critical passing downs.
The Aggie offensive line lost a lot last season. They did bring back three talented underclassmen, led by left guard Layden Robinson. Robinson is a big athletic people mover. He has the ability to displace defensive linemen off the snap and he moves extremely well as a puller blocking in space. Robinson has been inconsistent with his pad level and footwork all season, and hasn't been as effective as expected. As a whole this team blends zone and gap scheme concepts, with the frequency being dependent on whether the defense is in an odd or even man front. They've done enough to give Achane the opportunity to hit homeruns and keep the Aggies in games.
Randy Bond is a very capable place kicker with range beyond fifty yards who has been consistent throughout the season. In critical moments Achane will go back as a kick returner, and his speed has the ability to change games in that role.
What I'm Watching
Auburn's formational development on offense: Auburn adjusted in the second half last week and started going more FIB (formation into boundary) with multiple tight end looks, which effectively attacked the MSU defense who kept their alignment strength to the field. It worked, and Bigsby hit some big plays. I hope to see Auburn exploit more things they find during the game with the formational flexibility the tight end group provides.
Safety Play: Achane is going to get to the second level of the defense. Beating A&M means limiting him to that level. Auburn's safeties have to tackle well and not let 6 yard runs turn into 60 yard runs. If they limit Achane to two or less explosive runs over the course of the game, the Aggies may not be able to score enough to win. Conversely, Fisher will without a doubt attack Auburn's safeties with option routes in the passing game. They will have to be disciplined, play their rules, and not lose their eyes to the wrong place. A&M doesn't have elite receivers that can win with talent, so Auburn must not allow themselves to be out executed.
Linebackers: Who will play for AU? Last week we saw less Steiner, who has all the intangibles coaches love, but no production. Kam Riley was very active, and two walk-ons got reps on critical defensive possessions. The group as a whole was better. Will it continue? LB misreads against a back with this kind of speed can be absolutely terminal.
Critical Matchups
JD Rhym vs Moose Muhammad- Schmedding and Williams showed confidence last week leaving the freshman locked in man coverage on the backside. He performed well outside of one questionable penalty. With Pritchett being better in the slot corner role, Rhym needs to keep Moose locked up on third downs.
Council vs Jackson- Council spent way too much time in reverse and on the ground last week. Auburn has to play clean up front to have a chance. He can't get pushed into the backfield or displaced by the big DT. Council doesn't have to be great, he just needs to do his job.
Big Game Crystal Ball Predictions
Tank: Auburn has a new commitment to the run under Coach Caddy, has shown improved run schematic adjustments in game, and is facing the worst run defense in the league. 4 needs to put an exclamation point on this one.
Devon Achane: His speed plays on every field. Auburn has struggled to tackle at the second level all season, and has been prone to giving up chunk run plays, especially in the second half. Achane and Bigsby could have an absolute track meet.
Koy Moore: He's been on the verge of having big games. Texas A&M is having to shuffle a lot of defensive pieces in the secondary. I think Auburn moves him around and gets him involved in the intermediate game and lets him produce some run after catch yardage.
Derrick Hall: I'll get here in a moment.....
Prediction: This is a game between two struggling SEC teams, neither likely to see the post season, it shouldn't be a big game. HOWEVER, let's put this one in a vacuum. Auburn football was re-ignited last week. Carnell Williams's tenure, however long it may last, is something that absolutely brings out every drop of orange and blue soul from every single Auburn fan. The crowd will show up for this coach's team in a form that will rival any top five showdown Jordan-Hare has ever seen. There's a core group of guys on this team that won't quit, and will fight for Auburn to last damn second. That group is led by 29. Hall will have a chance to have some signature moments, especially if the less mobile quarterback is under center, and his effort will as always be insane. Absolute Auburn home field electricity, a big game on the ground from Tank, Hall creates at least one turnover that turns into points........
Go f********* crazy Cadillac!!!!!!! Auburn for the W!!!
Auburn 31-TAAMU 17
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