There are a lot of drivers for the current conference realignments and expansions. The primary driver is conference TV revenue deals via branding. Networks want more viewers, conferences want more money. That does not necessarily mean more TV markets for a conference, but instead better matchups.
So here are a few predictions:
1. ND is the Big Fish at this point. They are currently married to NBC, and an open marriage with ACC. What they decide is going to cause dominoes to drop in different directions. Geographically, the BIG10 is a fit, but that no longer matters. The SEC would add them if they ND wanted that. But I would not count out the ACC bringing them in as a full member.
2. The SEC and BIG10 have set the bar at 16 teams as of now. I think it stays there, depending on what ND does. If they go full-in with ACC, then it likely stays at 16 teams. If they go BIG10 or SEC, then it becomes a full-on arms race between these two conferences.
3. The ACC desperately needs to lock-down ND to establish legitimacy in the CFB as a super conference player. If that happens, they likely add another team to get to 16 teams. Cinn or UCF could jump up to round that out, or the ACC would need to raid another big conference to do that. If ND goes elsewhere, the ACC is in jeopardy of being raided.
4. The 4th Super Conference is most likely a hybrid of PAC12 and Big12. That gives them 18 teams, and stretches their market from California to Texas, two strong recruiting hotbeds.
5. If the SEC decides to raid the ACC to expand beyond 16 teams, the two schools who look the most like the others are obviously Clemson and FSU. These schools may not expand into new TV markets, but they add intense natural rivalries that could convince national viewers to flip the channel from Fox to CBS.
6. I see the CFB post season morphing into more of an NFL-type format. Conference champs getting a bye, and at-large teams playing an extra opening round. More games, longer season, more money. The issue of CFB in direct competition with NFL. Currently, CFB and NFL have a gentleman’s agreement on game scheduling to avoid overlaps. That gets harder with expanded playoffs.
So here are a few predictions:
1. ND is the Big Fish at this point. They are currently married to NBC, and an open marriage with ACC. What they decide is going to cause dominoes to drop in different directions. Geographically, the BIG10 is a fit, but that no longer matters. The SEC would add them if they ND wanted that. But I would not count out the ACC bringing them in as a full member.
2. The SEC and BIG10 have set the bar at 16 teams as of now. I think it stays there, depending on what ND does. If they go full-in with ACC, then it likely stays at 16 teams. If they go BIG10 or SEC, then it becomes a full-on arms race between these two conferences.
3. The ACC desperately needs to lock-down ND to establish legitimacy in the CFB as a super conference player. If that happens, they likely add another team to get to 16 teams. Cinn or UCF could jump up to round that out, or the ACC would need to raid another big conference to do that. If ND goes elsewhere, the ACC is in jeopardy of being raided.
4. The 4th Super Conference is most likely a hybrid of PAC12 and Big12. That gives them 18 teams, and stretches their market from California to Texas, two strong recruiting hotbeds.
5. If the SEC decides to raid the ACC to expand beyond 16 teams, the two schools who look the most like the others are obviously Clemson and FSU. These schools may not expand into new TV markets, but they add intense natural rivalries that could convince national viewers to flip the channel from Fox to CBS.
6. I see the CFB post season morphing into more of an NFL-type format. Conference champs getting a bye, and at-large teams playing an extra opening round. More games, longer season, more money. The issue of CFB in direct competition with NFL. Currently, CFB and NFL have a gentleman’s agreement on game scheduling to avoid overlaps. That gets harder with expanded playoffs.
