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CDC says Chinese Lung AIDS death rate is .4%

So you mean the controlled data, the official test vs deaths can’t be lower, right? The real number could be considerably lower. The actual mortality rate could be ridiculously low if we truly knew now many people have contracted the virus but we will never know that.

We will eventually know that, or be able to approximate it. It'll be next year or later before we do though.
 
We will eventually know that, or be able to approximate it. It'll be next year or later before we do though.
Maybe but it will indeed be an estimate and when/if that happens, the number could definitely go lower, wouldn’t you agree?
 
We will eventually know that, or be able to approximate it. It'll be next year or later before we do though.
Still then you have to be careful with one percentage fits all. The rising nations will still have a much higher rate and we should be able to account for that. Most we can do a good job on but if you read your chance of dying from this is .1 % and not understand that it is highly contingent on you previous condition and where you live you could be in trouble.
 
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The same way you factor in the number of asymptomatic cases that never get tested. This number can go way down but not up. The assumption that a ton of people have been dying in the last few months who are not being counted with COVID is likely not as high as the people not getting tested who have COVID. The reason we need data is so we can take subgroups and extrapolate to the general population. The problem we have is we don't have quite enough data and the data we receive can be different by regions. Then you throw in living conditions, medical availability as another wrench.

The point of the lock down was always to avoid hospital saturation. The problem we had is people were playing politics with this. The scaring of our population with disinformation has now put a huge burden on our middle class. The people who make in that 60,000 to about 140,000 per year. They are going to have to try and fund the government while trying to keep their jobs. Rough times ahead because of politics and not a really educated population.

Yes, avoiding hospital saturation was always the prime motivating factor.

I do find it odd that the Pandemic Team, and even the President, did an about-face on the virus based upon those Imperial College numbers. Would we have ultimately gone the way we did regardless? Hard to say. That wasn't the only factor, certainly. If we base our own pandemic response upon the data of an ally without substantiation on our end, I find that problematic.
 
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  • 0-49 years old: .05%
  • 50-64 years old: .2%
  • 65+ years old: 1.3%
  • Overall ages: .4%
Folks under 50 have a greater chance of dying from the seasonal flu. The new numbers suggest our reactions were way overblown. Live and learn.
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Still then you have to be careful with one percentage fits all. The rising nations will still have a much higher rate and we should be able to account for that. Most we can do a good job on but if you read your chance of dying from this is .1 % and not understand that it is highly contingent on you previous condition and where you live you could be in trouble.

Yes. IFR changes from nation to nation, county to county, city to city, demographic to demographic.
 
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Yes, avoiding hospital saturation was always the prime motivating factor.

I do find it odd that the Pandemic Team, and even the President, did an about-face on the virus based upon those Imperial College numbers. Would we have ultimately gone the way we did regardless? Hard to say. That wasn't the only factor, certainly. If we base our own pandemic response upon the data of an ally without substantiation on our end, I find that problematic.
We have done a ton of things wrong.

First is listen to the experts, not follow their advice blindly.
Should have closed NY to foreign travel way before we did.
Should have quarantined NY instead of crying about being bad for NY.
Should have immediately increased medical capacities.
Should have fought fires instead of whole country.

I could go on for days but it is our CDC that is absolutely pathetic. They should be spending every minute and every penny on figuring out how to respond to a pandemic. If we are going to have a CDC they need to focus only on the disease control not gun violence, climate change, etc. Their response is laughable and the little pandemic booklet they have is a joke.
 
Yes. IFR changes from nation to nation, county to county, city to city, demographic to demographic.
We will break it down better for all after this virus I believe. The fact that not everyone in our country can see the data in the categories necessary for them to see is atrocious. The overall number is important but ground level stats are needed to make informed decisions. I am in a bummed mood today because someone got me to take a peak at the CDC budget and expenditures the last few years. That kind of waste and performance is pathetic.
 
We have done a ton of things wrong.

First is listen to the experts, not follow their advice blindly.
Should have closed NY to foreign travel way before we did.
Should have quarantined NY instead of crying about being bad for NY.
Should have immediately increased medical capacities.
Should have fought fires instead of whole country.

I could go on for days but it is our CDC that is absolutely pathetic. They should be spending every minute and every penny on figuring out how to respond to a pandemic. If we are going to have a CDC they need to focus only on the disease control not gun violence, climate change, etc. Their response is laughable and the little pandemic booklet they have is a joke.

Two months ago I said that there is going to be a massive blame pie eaten, and everyone from the President down to governors and everyone in between will eat it.
 
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Two months ago I said that there is going to be a massive blame pie eaten, and everyone from the President down to governors and everyone in between will eat it.
I agree but the thing is we don't learn. Politicians are great at casting blame but there are no solutions. Look at our Presidential race, we have one candidate running on blaming the President, the other is running on blame the elites. Neither side is very specific in what they are going to do just blame the other guy.
 
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There are a number of articles out there. Here's one google found for me: https://www.washingtonpost.com/inve...covid-19-death-toll-undercounted/?arc404=true

The point is that - like the IFR - we won't get REAL, HARD #s until AFTER this is over, because the numbers are both over- and underestimated by current data available.

Since that article was written it is well known that there have been an increase in deaths from heart attacks by people not seeking medical care, there has been an extraordinary number of suicides, there have been a spike in deaths of cancer patients, that article is as flawed as any information out of China.
 
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