I was typing all of this up in response to someone who thought that going 5-5 the rest of the way wouldn't be good enough for a 1 seed, but I ended up saying so much, I just figured I would make it its own post. Because I think people really need to understand how historically good we have been, and how locked in we are to a good seed even right now. If we close 5-5 (5-4 in regular season, one and done in the SECT), we likely wouldn't be top 4 in polls, but we would still have a top 4 resume. We are 13-1 in Q1 (MSST back up to #30!) and 2-0 in Q2. That is far and away better than everyone in the country. Hardly any teams left even have a schedule where they could catch us in Q1 wins. But let's say we go 5-5 with these results:
Florida- W Q1
@Vandy-L Q1
@Alabama-L Q1
Arkansas-W Q2
Georgia-W Q2
Ole Miss- W Q1
@Kentucky-L Q1
@TAMU- L Q1
Alabama- W Q1
SECT (let's say TAMU)-L Q1
So that puts our Q1 record at 16-6, Q2 4-0. Overall record of 26-6, with the #1 or #2 schedule in the country. I would guess we would probably finish 2nd in the SEC in that scenario to Alabama, so that would suck, and Alabama would steal our preferred region. But look at the Q1/Q2 records of the teams currently behind us in the NET (I'm only including teams who have a shot at putting together a resume good enough to get a 1 seed):
Duke: 5-2/4-0
Houston: 3-4/5-0
Tenn: 6-4/2-0
Florida: 4-3/6-0
Alabama: 6-3/8-0
Texas Tech: 5-2/2-2
Kansas: 5-5/4-1
Arizona: 6-6/2-0
Purdue: 6-5/7-0
Iowa St.: 6-4/3-0
Illinois: 6-6/3-1
TAMU: 7-5/5-0
For the sake of argument, let's assume Duke and Alabama lock up 1 seeds. Which of those other teams could potentially have a better resume than Auburn, even if we finish the season 5-5? Really, it's only SEC teams. And UT, Florida and TAMU would be hard-pressed to get close enough to us. They'd basically have to finish SEC play 9-0 or 8-1.
I think in the most reasonable scenario (well, the most reasonable scenario that doesn't involved us going 18-0 in the SEC), we lose at Alabama, at TAMU, and either at Vandy or at UK and go 15-3, so it won't really matter. But even a 14-4 SEC record (well 14-5 if we lose an SECT game) and 26-6 overall with our resume and schedule is absolutely enough for a 1 seed. Not the top overall seed, but certainly a 1 seed.
Hell, to put it into perspective even more, our resume is so good, we could lose out and probably still not have to play in Dayton in the First Four. Not even close. Maybe even end up on the 4 or 5 line. That seems crazy, but we already have more Q1 wins than all but two teams last year (Houston and UConn), and no one with 15 or more combined Q1/2 wins was seeded worse than 3 last season. We also don't have any games left on our schedule that would be worse than Q2, so there are no bad losses to take. There have been few teams in college basketball history better positioned for seeding the first week of February than this Auburn team.
It is actually pretty crazy.
Florida- W Q1
@Vandy-L Q1
@Alabama-L Q1
Arkansas-W Q2
Georgia-W Q2
Ole Miss- W Q1
@Kentucky-L Q1
@TAMU- L Q1
Alabama- W Q1
SECT (let's say TAMU)-L Q1
So that puts our Q1 record at 16-6, Q2 4-0. Overall record of 26-6, with the #1 or #2 schedule in the country. I would guess we would probably finish 2nd in the SEC in that scenario to Alabama, so that would suck, and Alabama would steal our preferred region. But look at the Q1/Q2 records of the teams currently behind us in the NET (I'm only including teams who have a shot at putting together a resume good enough to get a 1 seed):
Duke: 5-2/4-0
Houston: 3-4/5-0
Tenn: 6-4/2-0
Florida: 4-3/6-0
Alabama: 6-3/8-0
Texas Tech: 5-2/2-2
Kansas: 5-5/4-1
Arizona: 6-6/2-0
Purdue: 6-5/7-0
Iowa St.: 6-4/3-0
Illinois: 6-6/3-1
TAMU: 7-5/5-0
For the sake of argument, let's assume Duke and Alabama lock up 1 seeds. Which of those other teams could potentially have a better resume than Auburn, even if we finish the season 5-5? Really, it's only SEC teams. And UT, Florida and TAMU would be hard-pressed to get close enough to us. They'd basically have to finish SEC play 9-0 or 8-1.
I think in the most reasonable scenario (well, the most reasonable scenario that doesn't involved us going 18-0 in the SEC), we lose at Alabama, at TAMU, and either at Vandy or at UK and go 15-3, so it won't really matter. But even a 14-4 SEC record (well 14-5 if we lose an SECT game) and 26-6 overall with our resume and schedule is absolutely enough for a 1 seed. Not the top overall seed, but certainly a 1 seed.
Hell, to put it into perspective even more, our resume is so good, we could lose out and probably still not have to play in Dayton in the First Four. Not even close. Maybe even end up on the 4 or 5 line. That seems crazy, but we already have more Q1 wins than all but two teams last year (Houston and UConn), and no one with 15 or more combined Q1/2 wins was seeded worse than 3 last season. We also don't have any games left on our schedule that would be worse than Q2, so there are no bad losses to take. There have been few teams in college basketball history better positioned for seeding the first week of February than this Auburn team.
It is actually pretty crazy.
