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Update #? (More numbers from the coast-echoing @stevesawbone)

@mrhickory

Have you heard of Moderna possibly being more effective anywhere else?

I think hospitals are just now starting to run the numbers on which vaccine those being admitted have had. I’ve been waiting on this info from our system before I made this post. Anecdotally, I’ve had a few echo this in Birmingham but no hard numbers.
 
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It's the Bunker. We can agree to disagree.
 
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We are still giving out 600k+ doses per day at the moment.

The media acts like it's 0 right now.

Sure, it should be higher but 4 million doses per week isn't a small number.

I feel like with 50% of the country vaccinated and another larger parentage already exposed, these numbers shouldn't be rising like this.

Something just feels off.

(I'm pro vaccine. This isn't a anti vax rant).
 
@mrhickory Thanks so much for this.

Any data supporting an uptick in vaccinations the last 2 weeks?


Watch the count daily if you'd like. I'm sure it's slightly off but it's very detailed and updates daily.

For awhile I didn't have to sign in but now I do to view. You just have to create an account, no payments or anything like that.

670k last 7 day average, which is up slightly


 
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We are still giving out 600k+ doses per day at the moment.

The media acts like it's 0 right now.

Sure, it should be higher but 4 million doses per week isn't a small number.

I feel like with 50% of the country vaccinated and another larger parentage already exposed, these numbers shouldn't be rising like this.

Something just feels off.

(I'm pro vaccine. This isn't a anti vax rant).
I completely agree. I feel like we are missing something. My main concern is that these vaccines are creating antibodies that don't last as long as they hoped. Pfizer makes a very low number of T cells. Moderna makes more but still not what we need. T cells are trained to recogozize the virus and remain active for a long time. They are like vaccine manufacturers in your body. I think we are going to have some DNA vaccines that are way better in the future at producing T cells.
 
The ridiculous, not everyone can get vaccinated argument. Who are these 7 people worldwide.
Children under the age of 12.

People with certain immune system problems.

People undergoing chemo and radiation have to wait until their white blood counts aren't low.

People with certain allergies to ingredients in the vaccine.



I'm extremely pro Vax. Got it the second I could. Have just about had to force some in my family to take it.

But as OP said, this is a pandemic of the unvaccinated, meaning if you are vaccinated these variants aren't doing much.

Finally, for overwhelming hospitals, start telling some of these people we are full and I'm sorry. That actually might make a few reconsider.
But they aren't just hurting themselves. There are the aforementioned people who can't be vaccinated or have to wait. But there's also the issue of offering fertile ground for the virus to continue mutating, which makes it more likely that a variant will emerge that seriously compromises the effectiveness of current vaccines. It's idiotic, yes, but it's not just a Darwin Award situation where the gene pool gets stronger.
 
We could. Or you could provide some evidence for yore assertion. :)
I keep saying I won't get sucked into these covid discussions but I have been studying drug development for years and can't seem to help it. I can show you articles that will support any opinion you want. It is a waste of time.
 
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We are still giving out 600k+ doses per day at the moment.

The media acts like it's 0 right now.

Sure, it should be higher but 4 million doses per week isn't a small number.

I feel like with 50% of the country vaccinated and another larger parentage already exposed, these numbers shouldn't be rising like this.

Something just feels off.

(I'm pro vaccine. This isn't a anti vax rant).
Per Scott Gottlieb, a million people per day may be getting infected with the delta variant. With 4M vaccinations and 7M infections, that is over 10M people per week getting immunity. One way or another, we are swiftly headed towards herd immunity. The current spike should settle back down before too long. *crossing fingers*
 
I completely agree. I feel like we are missing something. My main concern is that these vaccines are creating antibodies that don't last as long as they hoped. Pfizer makes a very low number of T cells. Moderna makes more but still not what we need. T cells are trained to recogozize the virus and remain active for a long time. They are like vaccine manufacturers in your body. I think we are going to have some DNA vaccines that are way better in the future at producing T cells.
Practically all the research I have seen indicates the opposite of this. Every study I have seen seems to indicate that immunity is likely to be very long lasting. Some even think it could last for decades. Of course, the reporting in the media give the opposite impression. Tagging @Stumpfan here as I think he follows these sorts of studies more than most.
 
Per Scott Gottlieb, a million people per day may be getting infected with the delta variant. With 4M vaccinations and 7M infections, that is over 10M people per week getting immunity. One way or another, we are swiftly headed towards herd immunity. The current spike should settle back down before too long. *crossing fingers*
Herd immunity was not achieved by people getting Polio or Small Pox. In the same sense, covid infections can lead to lifetime damage even if it doesn't kill you.
 
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Children under the age of 12.

People with certain immune system problems.

People undergoing chemo and radiation have to wait until their white blood counts aren't low.

People with certain allergies to ingredients in the vaccine.




But they aren't just hurting themselves. There are the aforementioned people who can't be vaccinated or have to wait. But there's also the issue of offering fertile ground for the virus to continue mutating, which makes it more likely that a variant will emerge that seriously compromises the effectiveness of current vaccines. It's idiotic, yes, but it's not just a Darwin Award situation where the gene pool gets stronger.
We will just have to agree to disagree.

I'm pro vaccine. Hope every single idiot gets one today. Seriously, stop being an idiot.

But IMO they are just hurting themselves at this point.

(Yes I know .0001 of someone out there will also be hurt, but that's just life in general. We aren't ever going to cure death).
 
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Practically all the research I have seen indicates the opposite of this. Every study I have seen seems to indicate that immunity is likely to be very long lasting. Some even think it could last for decades. Of course, the reporting in the media give the opposite impression. Tagging @Stumpfan here as I think he follows these sorts of studies more than most.
See what I mean. We are getting completely opposite information. This seems to be the rule today. We use to have 3 networks, 3 3 min news cast and they all said the same thing.
 
I keep saying I won't get sucked into these covid discussions but I have been studying drug development for years and can't seem to help it. I can show you articles that will support any opinion you want. It is a waste of time.
Maybe I misunderstood what you were saying. Are you saying that vaccinated people getting infected is causing mutations that affect the rest of us? If so, I disagree. If you are saying that unvaccinated people are doing that, I still disagree but not as strongly. Obviously, if everybody got vaccinated tomorrow, this pandemic would almost completely die within two months and the mutations would die out with it. But even with mutations, those of us who are vaccinated are largely unaffected. If there is evidence contrary to this, I'd like to see it. The data in mrhickory's OP in this thread is strong evidence that variants are not affecting the vaccinated much at all.
 
While I have not posted an update in a long while, I have been asked many times in the last few weeks with the delta surge. So here goes, my first few updates were related to treatment options and the science but this will mostly only focus on numbers. Unfortunately, at this point, healthcare professionals are just trying to keep our heads above water.

As of yesterday, we surpassed our highs (from January) for COVID census and continue to progress upward. Our numbers have skewed significantly younger and more healthy than previous. By the numbers:

My hospital

Covid census:
January 21 (previous high)-52 patients/18 in icu
Aug 2-56 patients/17 in icu

Average age:
1/21/21-66 yo (all census), 67 yo for icu
8/2/21-45 yo (all census), 43 yo in icu
We currently have 6 patients from their early 20’s to mid 30’s in ICU

% vaccinated:
Currently 94% of census unvaccinated, 100% of ICU patients unvaccinated

Ochsner System on Gulf Coast

Also at record census-84 patients hospitalized with 23 in ICU

Average age: 47 yo (all census), 44 yo for ICU

98% unvaccinated (total census), 100% unvaccinated ICU

Baton Rouge Hospitals (Our Lady of the Lake, Ochsner System)

375 patients hospitalized with average age of 44 yo and 90% unvaccinated.

We have had multiple pediatric admissions with delta as well.

We are currently at around 85% admissions from delta variant.

Regional hospitals are currently at capacity (both floor and ICU beds). We have gotten calls to attempt to transfer from as far away as Beaumont,TX, Memphis and Savannah over the last week. This is a big deal as that hospitals start closest to them and work outward. We were the 26th hospital for one of the attempts.

Other Interesting Notes:

Nearly all of our vaccinated admissions for COVID over the last 3 weeks had been vaccinated with Pfizer. We have had 2 J&J and 0 Moderna.

Interesting that my wife was diagnosed 2 weeks ago after a trip to OBA (the Buccee’s/Florabama variant). She had the Pfizer vaccine in January. I did not catch it and had Moderna. We were on a trip with 7 other couples and had 9 of 16 test positive within 3 days of leaving. Of the 9, 7 unvaccinated but 3 with previous documented covid infections and 2 had been vaccinated with Pfizer. The 7 of us that did not catch it included 4 Moderna vaccinated and 2 with previous covid infections. There were at least 6 others infected (not from our group but from our area) from the night we were at the Florabama from the upstairs bar that we were in. We were all there watching a kid play that is from here.

Delta is highly infectious and currently a symptomatic infected patient is expected to infect 8-10 unvaccinated others. Please note that delta was discovered before mass vaccination so this is not a variant “caused by vaccinations”. I have seen a few memes on the book of faces that made this assertion.

I agree with @stevesawbone about this being a pandemic of the unvaccinated. Although, Pfizer does not seem to be as effective at preventing delta, so far the data seems to show that it is pretty good at preventing severe illness. This is mostly my anecdotal observation.

Please stay safe folks.
Have you had any patients who've had it previously or are these all first timers indicating that natural immunity is holding up even for the variants? Thx!

Edit: I had it in Dec. and had my first pfizer shot a week ago today.
 
Herd immunity was not achieved by people getting Polio or Small Pox. In the same sense, covid infections can lead to lifetime damage even if it doesn't kill you.
That is because people got vaccinated for those diseases. Lifetime damage is irrelevant to herd immunity. Regardless of whether those who get it wind up with lifetime damage, they still have immunity, which contributes to herd immunity. Eve those who die contribute to herd immunity as they stop spreading it. Surely you aren't claiming that COVID infection does not result in immunity?
 
It’s just my anecdotal observation. I did see one study that suggested it may only be 64% effective at preventing delta but I looked at it briefly and have been unable to find it since.
That was an Israel study and ended up being an outlier due to being a small study. Larger studies from Canada and UK showed 88% later in vs delta.
 
We will just have to agree to disagree.

I'm pro vaccine. Hope every single idiot gets one today. Seriously, stop being an idiot.

But IMO they are just hurting themselves at this point.

(Yes I know .0001 of someone out there will also be hurt, but that's just life in general. We aren't ever going to cure death).
People refusing to get vaccinated are not just hurting themselves. All of us will suffer if hospitals are overwhelmed. On top of that, the more COVID spreads, the more likely we are to end up with new variants that are even more contagious and potentially more deadly. Your takes on COVID have been horrendously bad since the start of this crisis so you should apologize to Mr. H and other bunker docs for spending most of last year demanding people believe COVID was less deadly than the flu and not comment further on this topic.
 
Have you had any patients who've had it previously or are these all first timers indicating that natural immunity is holding up even for the variants? Thx!

Edit: I had it in Dec. and had my first pfizer shot a week ago today.

Yes, we have had quite a few reinfections. As of late last week, there were more reinfections than breakthrough (post vaccine) infections hospitalized. I’ll try to get the latest numbers. Reinfections however do not seem to be as severe as those in the unvaccinated (much like vaccine breakthrough infections).
 
See what I mean. We are getting completely opposite information. This seems to be the rule today. We use to have 3 networks, 3 3 min news cast and they all said the same thing.
Look, if you are aware of opposite information, please provide it. We don't have to rely on newscasts. We can get info from reputable scientific sources like below. If there are similar sources that show that immunity is likely not to last very long, let's see them.

 
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Same here, can I go get the moderna now? Kind of like a double stamp?
I was kind of wondering the same thing. For those of us who have had Pfizer, would a single booster of Moderna be beneficial? I assume that the protection offered by Pfizer is still so high as to make it sort of pointless, but...
 
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People refusing to get vaccinated are not just hurting themselves. All of us will suffer if hospitals are overwhelmed. On top of that, the more COVID spreads, the more likely we are to end up with new variants that are even more contagious and potentially more deadly. Your takes on COVID have been horrendously bad since the start of this crisis so you should apologize to Mr. H and other bunker docs for spending most of last year demanding people believe COVID was less deadly than the flu and not comment further on this topic.

@Breumiacu_AU

At least you rank above this guy on my give a shit what they think list.

There isn't a person lower on that list than @DM8, not even close.
 
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A pandemic of the unvaccinated.

And since the vaccine is widely available right this very second, why are we freaking out? (not OP)

You either get it or not at this point.
Well it's a little troubling if you got the Pfizer vax like me.
 
Maybe I misunderstood what you were saying. Are you saying that vaccinated people getting infected is causing mutations that affect the rest of us? If so, I disagree. If you are saying that unvaccinated people are doing that, I still disagree but not as strongly. Obviously, if everybody got vaccinated tomorrow, this pandemic would almost completely die within two months and the mutations would die out with it. But even with mutations, those of us who are vaccinated are largely unaffected. If there is evidence contrary to this, I'd like to see it. The data in mrhickory's OP in this thread is strong evidence that variants are not affecting the vaccinated much at all.
This is not accurate. We are certainly fortunate that the vaccines are proving highly effective at preventing serious illness in the delta variant. There is no guarantee that the current vaccines will protect us from future variants though. I have heard numerous doctors mention this as a major risk and it's one of the reasons that the "unvaccinated are only hurting themselves" argument is bogus.

“We are approaching that point,” he said. “If we don’t get control of the spread of this Delta variant, one of my biggest fears is that with the spread we’re going to have a new variant that is either more infectious or escapes the control of our vaccines and then we will be back at square one as we were in the original pandemic.”

 
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My work was offering Pfizer, but My doctor's office called with Moderna, and I had read it was "Stronger" not sure how accurate that is, but it does seem it may be.
It has 2-3 times the vaccine in it than Pfizer. Pfizer showing 88% efficacy vs delta right now for symptomatic Covid.
 
@Breumiacu_AU

At least you rank above this guy on my give a shit what they think list.

There isn't a person lower on that list than @DM8, not even close.
You spent months demanding everyone believe COVID was less deadly than the flu. It's incredible that you think anyone would still take your hot takes on this topic seriously. Mr. H has been kind enough to provide us with first hand information. Thank him for doing so and then stop trying to offer your baseless hot takes that have proved so inaccurate time after time.
 
Yes-I agree that it is likely needed. One of our local hospitals is now offering to their employees.
I assume you need to wait until it's been 6 months? I got my Pfizer shots on March 8 and 29.
 
You spent months demanding everyone believe COVID was less deadly than the flu. It's incredible that you think anyone would still take your hot takes on this topic seriously. Mr. H has been kind enough to provide us with first hand information. Thank him for doing so and then stop trying to offer your baseless hot takes that have proved so inaccurate time after time.
 
We are still giving out 600k+ doses per day at the moment.

The media acts like it's 0 right now.

Sure, it should be higher but 4 million doses per week isn't a small number.

I feel like with 50% of the country vaccinated and another larger parentage already exposed, these numbers shouldn't be rising like this.

Something just feels off.

(I'm pro vaccine. This isn't a anti vax rant).
There’s a big overlap on those that had Covid and getting the vaccine s many don’t know they had it and so many saying you still need the vaccine. So if 100 million had it and 50% of those were vaccinated, we are at 220 million of 340 million being immune? That’s not enough. People that have Delta spread it to 6 people while the original variant spread it to 2.
 
I completely agree. I feel like we are missing something. My main concern is that these vaccines are creating antibodies that don't last as long as they hoped. Pfizer makes a very low number of T cells. Moderna makes more but still not what we need. T cells are trained to recogozize the virus and remain active for a long time. They are like vaccine manufacturers in your body. I think we are going to have some DNA vaccines that are way better in the future at producing T cells.
What you’re missing is a delta carrier passes it to 6 people instead of 2 people (original Covid).
 
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