The #18 Auburn Tigers (6-0) took care of business in the opening round of the Legends Classic in New York last night, besting the New Mexico Lobos by a score of 84-59. Despite Auburn being cold from outside for much of the game, the Tigers found other ways of breaking down the Lobos defense. Auburn will face a team tonight in Richmond that struggles on defense, but showcases one of the best offenses in college basketball.
Stats to Note:
Richmond Spiders
5-0
UR
#82 Kenpom
#189 Realtime RPI
Tied 1st place A10 Conference
86.4 PPG - 13th Nationally
33.8 Rebounds per game - 315th Nationally
18.8 Assists per game - 10th Nationally
72.2 Points Allowed - 251st Nationally
The Spiders are truly a tale of two sides. On offense this Richmond team boasts statistics in the top of college basketball. Without disrespecting the legends that are Jared Harper and Bryce Brown, I believe this Richmond team will be the closest this year's Auburn team could come to playing against last year's Auburn team. According to Synergy Sports data, Richmond is the #1 team in America in transition efficiency. 59 possessions resulting in 87 points. That's the 100th percentile in their database. They're also the #6 team in the country in half-court efficiency. 338 possessions resulting in 342 points scored. That's in the 99th percentile. Tempo will be a huge part of this matchup, but as Wisconsin found out in the first round of this tournament, slowing Richmond down does not always guarantee success. One area where Richmond does struggle is scoring when teams provide full court pressure. Which is something Auburn does frequently to slow down teams and get them out of rhythm on offense. I'd expect a heavy dose of pressure from Bruce Pearl's team tonight.
Defense is a different story for Richmond. According to Synergy they are average to below average in every statistical category aside from defending "hand off" and "cut" plays. They are in the 9th percentile in defending the ball handler off of a pick and roll, which is a key element of Auburn's O. I believe we will see Samir, J'von, and Okoro have a lot fo success coming off screens and getting into the lane to draw fouls/finish at the bucket. The Spiders will exclusively play man-to-man defense, which also benefits Auburn who have been prone to struggle against a quality zone defense.
The Players:
Richmond has three starters averaging over 17 points per game. They are led by point guard Jacob Gilyard (5'9, 160). Gilyard has been electric on offense shooting 60% from the floor and 55% from 3 point range while also dishing out 6 assists a game. Their 3 guard will be Nick Sherod (6'4, 230) who is averaging 18.2 ppg while shooting 55% from 3. At the 2 is Blake Francis (6'0, 175). Francis is the least deadly guard from outside, shooting a mere 40% from three (that was sarcasm), and still averaging 18.6 points per game. He'll be the go to guy for slashing/cutting and attempting to get off shots around the top of the key.
Down low Richmond starts the 6'7, 225 Nathan Cayo at PF and Grant Golden (6'10, 255) at Center. Cayo is the lone starter averaging less than double digits in the scoring column, but is still shooting 65% from the field. Cayo will be more of a defensive presence, and the guy down low who can pick up some trash baskets through offensive boards and second chance opportunities. Golden on the other hand will be a focal point of the offense. Averaging a near double-double at (11.6 PPG/9.0 Rpg) Golden can play on the blocks and Richmond will try and run their offense through his post presence when the game slows to a half court style. Wisconsin did their best to slow down Richmond in transition, but were rewarded for the efforts with a heavy dose of Golden who finished with 16 points on 7-12 shooting while pulling down 12 boards. Austin Wiley is coming off one of the best games of his career at AU. He will have another chance to prove he can handle a true big man at C tonight.
The Spiders play 9-10 guys in their rotation, but get very little on the scoring end from their bench. Their highest scoring reserve is Tyler Burton. Burton is a 6'7 F who is averaging 3.0 points per game. If the Tigers can force Richmond's starters into foul trouble, that would bode well for their chances of limiting the Spiders offensively.
What to Watch For:
Richmond has one of the smallest backcourts in the country. Their starting guards are 5'9, 6'0 and 6'4. Auburn matches up very well because of this, and Okoro will have a nice size advantage on one of the Spider's best scorers in Sherod at 6'4.
Richmond does already have one victory over an SEC school. The Spiders beat Vanderbilt by 1 point in OT at the beginning of the season. They won't be worried about that ranking beside Auburn's logo or the name on the front of the jersey.
Going back to the defensive struggles for Richmond, their post players are allowing opposing teams to score at an alarming rate. Opposing offenses are converting on 58% of shots in the paint. Auburn should once again look to let Austin Wiley prove he can be a dominant scorer down low when the game slows to half court pace.
Key Matchup:
Samir Doughty vs. Blake Francis
I'm going to ride with the hot hand and stay with #HeadbandSamir on this one. He has looked unstoppable for the last 4 games, and I don't see any reason to think he'll slow down. Francis is going to have to stay in Samir's grill to prevent him getting those quick shots off given that Samir has 4' of height advantage if going off roster measurements. Francis is the leading scorer for the Spiders, so I believe this will be a fun back and forth for which guy gets theirs.
Prediction:
Auburn 78
Richmond 70
Line: Auburn -9.5
Over/Under - 147
Game Tips at 6:30 CT on ESPN2
Shoutout to @Jay G. Tate for the Synergy Data
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