https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats Library/Feb. 25, 2018 Team Sheets.pdf
My thoughts:
-We still have one of the best resumes in the country and are in line for a 2 seed.
-Only six teams have more Quandrant 1 or 2 wins than we do. We are tied for 7th most Q1 wins at 12. Among other teams with 12, we have the most Q1 wins (tied with UVA with 8).
-I'll also note that though Wichita St. has 13 combined Q1 and 2 wins, only 3 of those have come against Q1, making our resume better. Tennessee also has 13 Q1 & 2 wins, but they're 6-7 in Q1 games, whereas we are 8-5.
-Kansas, despite their struggles this year, has played a bear of a schedule and has 18 Q1 and 2 wins (second is Nova with 14). They also have a Q3 loss to Oklahoma St. (i.e. a "bad loss" according to the committee).
-We are tried with UVA for third most Q1 wins with 8 (Kansas leads everyone with 11, UNC has 10).
-Duke has an RPI of 4, but the RPI doesn't matter as much as resume, which is defined by Q1 and 2 wins. And they're a little light on those.
-Right now UVA, Xavier and Villanova have a lock on 1 seeds. I think we are in play, but a step behind Kansas, simply because KU (shouldn't they be UK since they're the University of Kansas) has so many high quality wins.
-I actually think based on resume, we would be the #5 or 6 overall seed. I think it would be between Auburn, Duke and UNC. UNC has the most Q1 and 2, and most Q1 wins among that group, but they also have that awful Q3 loss to Wofford. Duke only has 3 Q1 wins among their 11 overall Q1 and 2 wins. I guess Purdue would be in the mix, but they have fewer overall Q1 and 2 wins than Auburn, Duke and UNC, and fewer Q1 wins than all but Duke among those four teams. RI has an RPI of 8, but only 6 Q1 and 2 wins, so their resume just isn't good enough. Cincy at #11 overall RPI probably deserve to be in the mix for a 2 seed. As of right now, based upon the selection committee's criteria, I would have the top 1 as follows (I'm not doing top 16, because I only looked at 16 teams, and I think some teams outside the top 16 may help fill out 13-16--and I'm lazy):
1. Virginia
2. Villanova
3. Xavier
4. Kansas
5. Auburn
6. Duke
7. UNC
8. Cincy
9. Purdue
10. Tennessee
11. Michigan St.
12. Wichita St.
Michigan St. at 11 looks weird since they have a real argument for being #1 in the human polls but based on the committee's criteria, they only have 8 wins of consequence, and only 3 of those are elite wins. I also think Kentucky may have a better argument for #12 than Wichita St. but UK has fewer overall 1 and 2 wins and more overall losses.
So, LAMP, FWIW, whatever. There ya go.
My thoughts:
-We still have one of the best resumes in the country and are in line for a 2 seed.
-Only six teams have more Quandrant 1 or 2 wins than we do. We are tied for 7th most Q1 wins at 12. Among other teams with 12, we have the most Q1 wins (tied with UVA with 8).
-I'll also note that though Wichita St. has 13 combined Q1 and 2 wins, only 3 of those have come against Q1, making our resume better. Tennessee also has 13 Q1 & 2 wins, but they're 6-7 in Q1 games, whereas we are 8-5.
-Kansas, despite their struggles this year, has played a bear of a schedule and has 18 Q1 and 2 wins (second is Nova with 14). They also have a Q3 loss to Oklahoma St. (i.e. a "bad loss" according to the committee).
-We are tried with UVA for third most Q1 wins with 8 (Kansas leads everyone with 11, UNC has 10).
-Duke has an RPI of 4, but the RPI doesn't matter as much as resume, which is defined by Q1 and 2 wins. And they're a little light on those.
-Right now UVA, Xavier and Villanova have a lock on 1 seeds. I think we are in play, but a step behind Kansas, simply because KU (shouldn't they be UK since they're the University of Kansas) has so many high quality wins.
-I actually think based on resume, we would be the #5 or 6 overall seed. I think it would be between Auburn, Duke and UNC. UNC has the most Q1 and 2, and most Q1 wins among that group, but they also have that awful Q3 loss to Wofford. Duke only has 3 Q1 wins among their 11 overall Q1 and 2 wins. I guess Purdue would be in the mix, but they have fewer overall Q1 and 2 wins than Auburn, Duke and UNC, and fewer Q1 wins than all but Duke among those four teams. RI has an RPI of 8, but only 6 Q1 and 2 wins, so their resume just isn't good enough. Cincy at #11 overall RPI probably deserve to be in the mix for a 2 seed. As of right now, based upon the selection committee's criteria, I would have the top 1 as follows (I'm not doing top 16, because I only looked at 16 teams, and I think some teams outside the top 16 may help fill out 13-16--and I'm lazy):
1. Virginia
2. Villanova
3. Xavier
4. Kansas
5. Auburn
6. Duke
7. UNC
8. Cincy
9. Purdue
10. Tennessee
11. Michigan St.
12. Wichita St.
Michigan St. at 11 looks weird since they have a real argument for being #1 in the human polls but based on the committee's criteria, they only have 8 wins of consequence, and only 3 of those are elite wins. I also think Kentucky may have a better argument for #12 than Wichita St. but UK has fewer overall 1 and 2 wins and more overall losses.
So, LAMP, FWIW, whatever. There ya go.
