Update #? (More numbers from the coast-echoing @stevesawbone)

[TripleWood]

Went to CVS yesterday (Birmingham area) ... was encouraged at how many people I saw getting the vaccine. Has been little to no activity the last couple of months.

On the flip side, my FB feed has started filling up with prayer requests again. Friend of mine had her Dad get really sick yesterday, COVID positive, but Brookwood was full. No beds. So, he had to wait at an emergency clinic until this AM.

Another story ... avid runner, about 50 years old, was a traveling preacher at summer camps, died of COVID. Was in good health and had smiling pictures of him and his family from late June in Destin. Perfectly fine ... had he vaccinated, he'd still be here to watch his kids grow up.

So avoidable. So sad.

prayers for his family, he will be made whole again.

 

[Stumpfan]

Man, that is scary. Thanks for the information you've provided in this thread. Your original post about the difference in ICU ages from the January wave to the current wave was the push I needed to get vaccinated. Got my first shot yesterday.

I was never anti-vaccine, just wasn't too concerned given my age and physical shape, but what we're seeing with this variant has certainly changed my perspective.

Maybe the media should do stories on what op posted instead of talking about how 125,000 vaccinated people got Covid out of 160 million people.

 

[JHSEC16]

Maybe the media should do stories on what op posted instead of talking about how 125,000 vaccinated people got Covid out of 160 million people.

They need to focus on the changing dynamics of this variant versus the last couple of waves. I think everyone is anchoring to their experience over the last year where you just did not see many serious cases in young, otherwise healthy people. That is changing fast with this variant, but I'm not sure everyone is aware. They just hear "Oh another COVID wave, great..", not realizing what is actually happening on the front lines as @mrhickory and @stevesawbone have explained.

 

[Stumpfan]

They need to focus on the changing dynamics of this variant versus the last couple of waves. I think everyone is anchoring to their experience over the last year where you just did not see many serious cases in young, otherwise healthy people. That is changing fast with this variant, but I'm not sure everyone is aware. They just hear "Oh another COVID wave, great..", not realizing what is actually happening on the front lines as @mrhickory and @stevesawbone have explained.

That’s what I’m saying. They are doing more stories on more kids in hospitals but not enough on unvaccinated in their 20’s, 30’s, 40’s dying.

 

[JHSEC16]

We have had 8 under the age of 45 die (who were not in bad health previously) in the last 2 weeks (including a 24, 29 and 31 yo). We thought we were in the clear and I was skeptical of delta being much of an issue. But it is much different animal than we ever saw with the surges of last summer and January.

Is there anything you can point to in those particular cases, or just in general with the Delta variant, that may explain why we're seeing more aggressive cases in age/health demographics that were previously considered lower risk?

 

[Aueku]

While I have not posted an update in a long while, I have been asked many times in the last few weeks with the delta surge. So here goes, my first few updates were related to treatment options and the science but this will mostly only focus on numbers. Unfortunately, at this point, healthcare professionals are just trying to keep our heads above water.

As of yesterday, we surpassed our highs (from January) for COVID census and continue to progress upward. Our numbers have skewed significantly younger and more healthy than previous. By the numbers:

My hospital

Covid census:
January 21 (previous high)-52 patients/18 in icu
Aug 2-56 patients/17 in icu

Average age:
1/21/21-66 yo (all census), 67 yo for icu
8/2/21-45 yo (all census), 43 yo in icu
We currently have 6 patients from their early 20’s to mid 30’s in ICU

% vaccinated:
Currently 94% of census unvaccinated, 100% of ICU patients unvaccinated

Ochsner System on Gulf Coast

Also at record census-84 patients hospitalized with 23 in ICU

Average age: 47 yo (all census), 44 yo for ICU

98% unvaccinated (total census), 100% unvaccinated ICU

Baton Rouge Hospitals (Our Lady of the Lake, Ochsner System)

375 patients hospitalized with average age of 44 yo and 90% unvaccinated.

We have had multiple pediatric admissions with delta as well.

We are currently at around 85% admissions from delta variant.

Regional hospitals are currently at capacity (both floor and ICU beds). We have gotten calls to attempt to transfer from as far away as Beaumont,TX, Memphis and Savannah over the last week. This is a big deal as that hospitals start closest to them and work outward. We were the 26th hospital for one of the attempts.

Other Interesting Notes:

Nearly all of our vaccinated admissions for COVID over the last 3 weeks had been vaccinated with Pfizer. We have had 2 J&J and 0 Moderna.

Interesting that my wife was diagnosed 2 weeks ago after a trip to OBA (the Buccee’s/Florabama variant). She had the Pfizer vaccine in January. I did not catch it and had Moderna. We were on a trip with 7 other couples and had 9 of 16 test positive within 3 days of leaving. Of the 9, 7 unvaccinated but 3 with previous documented covid infections and 2 had been vaccinated with Pfizer. The 7 of us that did not catch it included 4 Moderna vaccinated and 2 with previous covid infections. There were at least 6 others infected (not from our group but from our area) from the night we were at the Florabama from the upstairs bar that we were in. We were all there watching a kid play that is from here.

Delta is highly infectious and currently a symptomatic infected patient is expected to infect 8-10 unvaccinated others. Please note that delta was discovered before mass vaccination so this is not a variant “caused by vaccinations”. I have seen a few memes on the book of faces that made this assertion.

I agree with @stevesawbone about this being a pandemic of the unvaccinated. Although, Pfizer does not seem to be as effective at preventing delta, so far the data seems to show that it is pretty good at preventing severe illness. This is mostly my anecdotal observation.

Please stay safe folks.

Thank you. Fellow Moderna person here so let's hope your anecdotal evidence about our shared vaccine hold up. I really appreciate you and @stevesawbone

 

[mrhickory]

@mrhickory

given a choice would you choose one over the other re: Pfizer vs Moderna, at this point?

Thank you

I would choose Moderna if given the choice. Seems to give a bit more protection with delta.

 

[SH0RTS]

I can’t imagine what your wife goes thru daily. Just hearing this stuff bothers me.

Man, the shit she has to gear up in is ridiculous. Respirators, goggles, hair wraps, full suit, face shields. Its hot, hard to breath and wearing that respirator for hours on end causes a sore throat from the air and having to scream all day so people can hear what shes saying. Went in at 0600 yesterday and came home at 2100 hrs. I just hope the Ford face shields work better than their engines. But yeah, its physically and emotionally exhausting for her

 

[Stumpfan]

Man, the shit she has to gear up in is ridiculous. Respirators, goggles, hair wraps, full suit, face shields. Its hot, hard to breath and wearing that respirator for hours on end causes a sore throat from the air and having to scream all day so people can hear what shes saying. Went in at 0600 yesterday and came home at 2100 hrs. I just hope the Ford face shields work better than their engines. But yeah, its physically and emotionally exhausting for her

And this was totally avoidable. Sad.

 

[SH0RTS]

Yeah, like Shorts linked, it was Wade Morris. I attended a number of Student Life camps as a teenager and worked for them for a while. Wade was a really good guy. Really sad.

Also, for me, it's a reminder. He's just a few years older than me. I run as well and I am in decent shape. The average hospitalization age, like Hickory pointed out in this thread, has really come down with this Delta variant. Folks that thought they'd be fine are getting caught up in it. Wade was one of those people.

Yeah man. That whole “im not fat, have diabetes or any other comorbidity, so I’m in the 99% group” logic just isnt working with delta variant. Now, people with those conditions are at a higher risk. But, when a healthy, semi-athletic 19 year old with no health issues is close to going on a vent, it’s time to take notice.

 

[SH0RTS]

And this was totally avoidable. Sad.

This is her new “work attire”.

 

[au4life_rz]

I had a routine (for an oulde like me) cardiology test earlier this week and the technician mentioned that they have been seeing a lot of patients with heart damage resulting from COVID compared to previous years. Even the folks who don't die or even who aren't hospitalized sometimes get side effect from this thing that can be pretty significant and that affect them long term, even in young-ish patients.

Covid really is an odd/weird little booger. It seems that most pathogens in the family of coronaviruses primarily infect mucous membranes et. al., but Covid seems to be able to infect pretty much any cell in the body. Blood, muscles, nerves, it just seems as if nothing is off limits, and so many different systems seem to be able to be impacted.

I have a sister-in-law who is really going through dealing with long haul Covid, and Covid brain is a big part of her ailments. Unfortunately, we'll probably be learning about this weird pathogen for quite some time.

 

[Big Blue]

Covid really is an odd/weird little booger. It seems that most pathogens in the family of coronaviruses primarily infect mucous membranes et. al., but Covid seems to be able to infect pretty much any cell in the body. Blood, muscles, nerves, it just seems as if nothing is off limits, and so many different systems seem to be able to be infected.

I have a sister-in-law who is really going through dealing with long haul Covid, and Covid brain is a big part of her ailments. Unfortunately, we'll probably be learning about this weird pathogen for quite some time.

I have an aunt with similar issues. Aside from long haul physical issues, she is having some fairly significant mental ones as well. She's probably around 70-years-old so it is hard to know if there were some mental issues already developing that COVID made worse, whether spending a couple of weeks down in a hospital affected her mentally, or whether the mental issues she is having were entirely caused by COVID. Regardless, COVID precipitated it somehow. She was doing pretty well before getting it and is nowhere near the shape she was in. It's a nasty illness.

 

[au4life_rz]

I have an aunt with similar issues. Aside from long haul physical issues, she is having some fairly significant mental ones as well. She's probably around 70-years-old so it is hard to know if there were some mental issues already developing that COVID made worse, whether spending a couple of weeks down in a hospital affected her mentally, or whether the mental issues she is having were entirely caused by COVID. Regardless, COVID precipitated it somehow. She was doing pretty well before getting it and is nowhere near the shape she was in. It's a nasty illness.

Well, my sister-in-law, (and a couple of others), didn't have ANY issues prior to Covid and they just don't have any issues with dementia and that general class of issues on their side of the family. My mother-in-law was 95 or 96 when she died, and her mental acuity was off the charts.

I can't state it definitively, but I'm fully convinced that these issues with her short term memory, the general confusion and such are very likely a result of Covid.

 

[au4life_rz]

The real question is, why does this wave appear to have so many younger people in their 20's, 30's and 40's? Of course, I'm taking into consideration that the accounts are anecdotal, and it's a VERY small sampling, but it's still an interesting question IMHO.

• Using Occam's and sticking with the most simplistic explanation, is it simply due to folks being unvaccinated, period?

• Is there something drastically different about the Delta strain that allows it to target younger people, and/or the higher infectiousness is allowing it to infect a lot more than the initial strain?

• Is it somewhat to be expected, due to the fact that a much higher percentage of older people are vaccinated, while a higher percentage of middle-aged to younger folks are unvaccinated, (due to them feeling they are somewhat invincible, and that "this is a disease that largely impacts old folks" etc.), as it did in the first few waves?

If the 3rd item is the cause, I'd pretty much expect that Covid would impact significantly more younger folks whenever the next big wave occurred, (since more of that demographic are probably unvaccinated compared to the older populations). People in their 20's, 30's, 40's are also more likely to be out and about, "getting back in the grove, mingling and participating in mass spreading activities etc., as soon as we "got back to normal", stopped masking and following the general guidance that reduces spread of diseases.

Are there other possibilities to explain what's been relayed on the board by those in healthcare? Is this to be expected, or a surprise to our doctors and others in healthcare? It'll also be interesting to see what statistics indicate, and whether any trends that are established are consistent all around the world, or just in the U.S.

 

[cbdevine]

After reading OP, my wife and I got shot 1 yesterday. I had a physical last week and I still had antibodies from a very bad case of Corona in January. Before Corona diagnosis on Jan 6, I ran 5-10K per day. To this day I am still unable to run a mile without stopping. My worst health issue WAS seasonal allergies and acid reflux.

Get the vax people, you know the long term effects of fatty meats, sugar, tobacco and alcohol yet you continue to use those on a daily basis with no concern for your future. Why is this different.
Love to all!!! Thanks for the updates from the real doctors and healthcare workers.

 

[Creed Monster]

After reading OP, my wife and I got shot 1 yesterday. I had a physical last week and I still had antibodies from a very bad case of Corona in January. Before Corona diagnosis on Jan 6, I ran 5-10K per day. To this day I am still unable to run a mile without stopping. My worst health issue WAS seasonal allergies and acid reflux.

There's been some chatter about the vaccine helping reduce some of the effects of "long COVID". Hoping that you get some relief soon. Appreciate you sharing your experience.

 

[WarDamnCockerel]

So will Oregon get two surges in your opinion? Now and this winter? FL? I assumed FL probably had more natural immunity. Gottlieb seems ro think this could be last major surge.

Haven't looked at this site's data/models, so I don't know how legit they are, but Gottlieb tweeted it out approvingly the other day. It estimates lots of things, including percent ever infected for every state. Among other things, they have FL at 43%, and OR at 17%. AL is a 52.5%, but those are some wide error bars (not sure exactly what's up with that). GA at 47%.

covidestim: COVID-19 nowcasting

Up-to-date estimates of key covid-19 metrics for your county or state

www.covidestim.org

 

[Stumpfan]

Haven't looked at this site's data/models, so I don't know how legit they are, but Gottlieb tweeted it out approvingly the other day. It estimates lots of things, including percent ever infected for every state. Among other things, they have FL at 43%, and OR at 17%. AL is a 52.5%, but those are some wide error bars (not sure exactly what's up with that). GA at 47%.

covidestim: COVID-19 nowcasting

Up-to-date estimates of key covid-19 metrics for your county or state

www.covidestim.org

Denmark at 93%? The FL cases and hospitalizations seem high unless a ton that had Covid also got the vaccine.

 

[WarDamnCockerel]

Denmark at 93%? The FL cases and hospitalizations seem high unless a ton that had Covid also got the vaccine.

Delaware # definitely looks weird. There must be an error somewhere on that one. With FL, one possibility is that there's a lot more overlap on infections/vaccinations than we realize. It would make sense, because risk assessment is so often tied to personal experience (IOW, a lot of people, rather than saying "I've had it, so I've got natural immunity, and I"m good," may have said "I don't want to go through that again."). There was also a thought that people who had particularly bad reactions to the shot may have been people who had asymptomatic or mild cases before that went undiagnosed.

There's also the North vs. South FL. SoFLA had an alpha outbreak in the Spring.

 

[aler]

While I have not posted an update in a long while, I have been asked many times in the last few weeks with the delta surge. So here goes, my first few updates were related to treatment options and the science but this will mostly only focus on numbers. Unfortunately, at this point, healthcare professionals are just trying to keep our heads above water.

As of yesterday, we surpassed our highs (from January) for COVID census and continue to progress upward. Our numbers have skewed significantly younger and more healthy than previous. By the numbers:

My hospital

Covid census:
January 21 (previous high)-52 patients/18 in icu
Aug 2-56 patients/17 in icu

Average age:
1/21/21-66 yo (all census), 67 yo for icu
8/2/21-45 yo (all census), 43 yo in icu
We currently have 6 patients from their early 20’s to mid 30’s in ICU

% vaccinated:
Currently 94% of census unvaccinated, 100% of ICU patients unvaccinated

Ochsner System on Gulf Coast

Also at record census-84 patients hospitalized with 23 in ICU

Average age: 47 yo (all census), 44 yo for ICU

98% unvaccinated (total census), 100% unvaccinated ICU

Baton Rouge Hospitals (Our Lady of the Lake, Ochsner System)

375 patients hospitalized with average age of 44 yo and 90% unvaccinated.

We have had multiple pediatric admissions with delta as well.

We are currently at around 85% admissions from delta variant.

Regional hospitals are currently at capacity (both floor and ICU beds). We have gotten calls to attempt to transfer from as far away as Beaumont,TX, Memphis and Savannah over the last week. This is a big deal as that hospitals start closest to them and work outward. We were the 26th hospital for one of the attempts.

Other Interesting Notes:

Nearly all of our vaccinated admissions for COVID over the last 3 weeks had been vaccinated with Pfizer. We have had 2 J&J and 0 Moderna.

Interesting that my wife was diagnosed 2 weeks ago after a trip to OBA (the Buccee’s/Florabama variant). She had the Pfizer vaccine in January. I did not catch it and had Moderna. We were on a trip with 7 other couples and had 9 of 16 test positive within 3 days of leaving. Of the 9, 7 unvaccinated but 3 with previous documented covid infections and 2 had been vaccinated with Pfizer. The 7 of us that did not catch it included 4 Moderna vaccinated and 2 with previous covid infections. There were at least 6 others infected (not from our group but from our area) from the night we were at the Florabama from the upstairs bar that we were in. We were all there watching a kid play that is from here.

Delta is highly infectious and currently a symptomatic infected patient is expected to infect 8-10 unvaccinated others. Please note that delta was discovered before mass vaccination so this is not a variant “caused by vaccinations”. I have seen a few memes on the book of faces that made this assertion.

I agree with @stevesawbone about this being a pandemic of the unvaccinated. Although, Pfizer does not seem to be as effective at preventing delta, so far the data seems to show that it is pretty good at preventing severe illness. This is mostly my anecdotal observation.

Please stay safe folks.

Doing a controlled test for the bunker. Working at a house where 5 people have COVID . See how the vaccine works

 

[TridentAU]

Yes and they are awesome dogs.I have always had labs but am now a Vizsla fan.Great personality.Love people and Tend to get along well with other dogs.They do need a lot of exercise.

I've got a one year old female Vizsla. I'm finding out very quickly about the needing lots of exercise..I bring her to the office with me and let her run around so that helps. Had a Ridgeback before her. Completely different dogs with a similar look.

 

[vanceme]

Doing a controlled test for the bunker. Working at a house where 5 people have COVID . See how the vaccine works

Bruh, you in a house with 5 COVID positive patients right now?

 

[aler]

Bruh, you in a house with 5 COVID positive patients right now?

yesterday, still breathing we will see how it goes, I have had the virus and the shot. if I get it then its just a new norm

 

[PocketWatch]

i am Team Pfizer... didn't really choose, it was what I could get.. hmmm...

Team Pfizer for life!!!!

 

[vanceme]

yesterday, still breathing we will see how it goes, I have had the virus and the shot. if I get it then its just a new norm

You wont get it, you are bullet proof at this point.

 

[cbmitche]

Man, the shit she has to gear up in is ridiculous. Respirators, goggles, hair wraps, full suit, face shields. Its hot, hard to breath and wearing that respirator for hours on end causes a sore throat from the air and having to scream all day so people can hear what shes saying. Went in at 0600 yesterday and came home at 2100 hrs. I just hope the Ford face shields work better than their engines. But yeah, its physically and emotionally exhausting for her

Well our kids can wear dollar general mask and we actually have real adults that think they are safe in them 🙄.

 

[Stumpfan]

Well our kids can wear dollar general mask and we actually have real adults that think they are safe in them 🙄.

Delta is so damn contagious that shitty masks aren’t going to do anything. Kids 12 and up can get vaccinated so no masks for them. Kids 11 and under aren’t not at risk as much as those older than them. Asking them to wear a n95 or to double mask is pretty silly. No longer is them bringing it to their parents an issue since the parents could be vaxxed. All mask mandates need to go imo. Much more vaccine mandates are needed though. I wish every business would do it and ever MS/HS/college would do it once fda approves.

 

[03Tiger]

Talked to my mom earlier today. Her cardiologist down in Baldwin Co is unvaccinated, didn’t wear a mask in their appointments and told her that she didn’t have to wear one either. Anyway he’s now in the ICU on a ventilator with COVID. Wife has it too, but is faring better than he is so far.

My mom’s cardiologist died early this morning. Sad story.

 

[mrhickory]

While I have not posted an update in a long while, I have been asked many times in the last few weeks with the delta surge. So here goes, my first few updates were related to treatment options and the science but this will mostly only focus on numbers. Unfortunately, at this point, healthcare professionals are just trying to keep our heads above water.

As of yesterday, we surpassed our highs (from January) for COVID census and continue to progress upward. Our numbers have skewed significantly younger and more healthy than previous. By the numbers:

My hospital

Covid census:
January 21 (previous high)-52 patients/18 in icu
Aug 2-56 patients/17 in icu

Average age:
1/21/21-66 yo (all census), 67 yo for icu
8/2/21-45 yo (all census), 43 yo in icu
We currently have 6 patients from their early 20’s to mid 30’s in ICU

% vaccinated:
Currently 94% of census unvaccinated, 100% of ICU patients unvaccinated

Ochsner System on Gulf Coast

Also at record census-84 patients hospitalized with 23 in ICU

Average age: 47 yo (all census), 44 yo for ICU

98% unvaccinated (total census), 100% unvaccinated ICU

Baton Rouge Hospitals (Our Lady of the Lake, Ochsner System)

375 patients hospitalized with average age of 44 yo and 90% unvaccinated.

We have had multiple pediatric admissions with delta as well.

We are currently at around 85% admissions from delta variant.

Regional hospitals are currently at capacity (both floor and ICU beds). We have gotten calls to attempt to transfer from as far away as Beaumont,TX, Memphis and Savannah over the last week. This is a big deal as that hospitals start closest to them and work outward. We were the 26th hospital for one of the attempts.

Other Interesting Notes:

Nearly all of our vaccinated admissions for COVID over the last 3 weeks had been vaccinated with Pfizer. We have had 2 J&J and 0 Moderna.

Interesting that my wife was diagnosed 2 weeks ago after a trip to OBA (the Buccee’s/Florabama variant). She had the Pfizer vaccine in January. I did not catch it and had Moderna. We were on a trip with 7 other couples and had 9 of 16 test positive within 3 days of leaving. Of the 9, 7 unvaccinated but 3 with previous documented covid infections and 2 had been vaccinated with Pfizer. The 7 of us that did not catch it included 4 Moderna vaccinated and 2 with previous covid infections. There were at least 6 others infected (not from our group but from our area) from the night we were at the Florabama from the upstairs bar that we were in. We were all there watching a kid play that is from here.

Delta is highly infectious and currently a symptomatic infected patient is expected to infect 8-10 unvaccinated others. Please note that delta was discovered before mass vaccination so this is not a variant “caused by vaccinations”. I have seen a few memes on the book of faces that made this assertion.

I agree with @stevesawbone about this being a pandemic of the unvaccinated. Although, Pfizer does not seem to be as effective at preventing delta, so far the data seems to show that it is pretty good at preventing severe illness. This is mostly my anecdotal observation.

Please stay safe folks.

Since someone brought this post back…12 days later, these census’s have more than doubled. Crazy, sad times.

 

[Lover of Pearl]

Since someone brought this post back…12 days later, these census’s have more than doubled. Crazy, sad times.

I know this is off topic, but what’re your thoughts on the moderna/pfizer boosters? My dad got his this morning.

 

[03Tiger]

That’s crazy. And sorry for bringing it back, I just replied to original post about her doc. Probably should have put my reply on Covid board.

 

[WoSDWDE]

A pandemic of the unvaccinated.

And since the vaccine is widely available right this very second, why are we freaking out? (not OP)

You either get it or not at this point.

Because they're running out of beds in the hospital for people that need them. My wife's hospital has stopped elective surgeries again (and are shutting down units to increase covid capacity)and her friend hospital in ATL is at max capacity and they're starting to double people up. ICU patients are being put in the ED and people aren't getting the neccessary care they need.

 

[stutsman23]

I know this is off topic, but what’re your thoughts on the moderna/pfizer boosters? My dad got his this morning.

Interested in this as well. Should you stick with the same for the booster or if I had Moderna should I give phizer a try for the booster?

 

[griffna]

Interested in this as well. Should you stick with the same for the booster or if I had Moderna should I give phizer a try for the booster?

The article I read said you can mix boosters. I would get Moderna as it has performed a bit better against delta.

 

[DavistonTiger]

Because they're running out of beds in the hospital for people that need them. My wife's hospital has stopped elective surgeries again (and are shutting down units to increase covid capacity)and her friend hospital in ATL is at max capacity and they're starting to double people up. ICU patients are being put in the ED and people aren't getting the neccessary care they need.

Keep reading...

Tell everyone you have one month to get vaccinated, after that we have no beds for the unvaccinated. Problem solved.

 

[WoSDWDE]

Keep reading...

Tell everyone you have one month to get vaccinated, after that we have no beds for the unvaccinated. Problem solved.

There's probably a lot of hospital workers that feel that way. Hospitals would never willing do that though. As mrhickory said, it'll go to chances of survival. Higher ones being treated with low chances just getting sent home with Ts&Ps.

 

[Torqued]

I currently have covid. How long should I wait before getting the vaccine?

 

[mrhickory]

I currently have covid. How long should I wait before getting the vaccine?

90 days…for everybody else that asked. I’m recommending Moderna. Seems to have a bit more protection against Delta.

 

[stutsman23]

90 days…for everybody else that asked. I’m recommending Moderna. Seems to have a bit more protection against Delta.

Thanks, Doc