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Update #? (More numbers from the coast-echoing @stevesawbone)

A pandemic of the unvaccinated.

And since the vaccine is widely available right this very second, why are we freaking out? (not OP)

You either get it or not at this point.

there are consequences beyond the individual riding on vaccination though.

1. rapid spread
2. Overwhelmed healthcare
3. Return of social distancing and masking mandates
4. Extended shutdowns
5. Economic impacts
6. Increased deaths
7. Extended length of pandemic crisis
8. Potential for more variants that are more deadly or vaccination resistant
9. Exhaustion of vaccination and antibody protection requiring booster of original vaccination.

other than that Mrs Lincoln.......How was the play?
 
i dont think herd immunity means we dont catch it anymore, it just becomes less likely and less deadly. no more huge spikes.

it means less hospitalizations.

it doesnt mean people wont die or get sick. just way less of it.
I think it means it’s like the flu. We expect a certain amount of deaths per year. I think the vaccine will be more important than the flu vaccine though for most of us. They are developing a vaccine for both in one.
 
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Thanks for including info on previously infected. I don't think people realize just how good that seems to be holding up these days. I wish they would do a trial of just those folks and she if the even need any shots. At the very least it seems one is more than enough to boost a person off the charts.

there seems to be a much larger variation with previously infected vs vaccinated. So not sure that would help. If you have addition health risks, I would suggest getting vaccinated regardless.

also, the protection by antibodies seems to diminish after 6 months. Vaccination seems to last longer.
 
You’re wrong. Moderna and Pfizer create tons of T cells and B cells. These cells are best what they were right after vaccination 8 months later. Hardly any drop. What dropped some were antibodies but not T cells and B cells. We will have protection from severe disease for years. We will have protection from symptomatic Covid for a while (at least 2 years) unless one is elderly or have other issues like yourself.
Here again, this is the info I have from their trials. I'm also comparing their numbers to some DNA vaccines which I believe produce more. I'm going to stop responding to these covid threads because it does nothing but upset me.
 
We’ve always known there will be mutations. That’s what viruses do. Those mutations almost always result in strains that are more contagious but less lethal. And even though this delta variant is a lot more contagious, the vaccines kick its butt. I’m not saying we shouldn’t get vaccinated. Everybody should. But for those who are, it isn’t a big deal. Those who aren’t vaccinated are going to take care of themselves soon. Everybody is getting vaccinated or getting COVID over the next few months. For those vaccinated, there is nothing to fear.

And if a strain that targets children pops up before we have a vaccine safe for kids? That’s my main worry right now. And I think the fear is completely warranted.
 
there seems to be a much larger variation with previously infected vs vaccinated. So not sure that would help. If you have addition health risks, I would suggest getting vaccinated regardless.

also, the protection by antibodies seems to diminish after 6 months. Vaccination seems to last longer.
Not according to a comprehensive study in Israel.The people with antibodies from having COVID were 6 times better at fighting the disease and also had a longer protection.
 
And if a strain that targets children pops up before we have a vaccine safe for kids? That’s my main worry right now. And I think the fear is completely warranted.
There is almost no reason to believe this will happen, which is why your fear is likely unwarranted, but different strokes for different folks.
 
The white anti vaccine far right are very vocal on social media. You are correct in that there is still a large swath of the left that have not been vaccinated as well.

I have not made hardly any posts elsewhere until the last week. But I did make the point that these vaccines were commissioned, developed, and approved by Trump and his administration and that Operation Warp Speed was an outstanding success in bringing available vaccines to the public in record time. This also stemmed the tide back in January. Pointing out to some of these far right folks that Trump was responsible for these and that he and his family were some of the first to receive the vaccines seemed to have some rethink their stance.

shockingly…I got the shot as soon as possible (May) and I’m still a conservative. I’m so sick of idiocy driving this argument. Lib or conservative. Doesn’t matter. Get the vaccine!

Doc…what say you about kids being vaccinated? My son turns 12 this October.
 
There is almost no reason to believe this will happen, which is why your fear is likely unwarranted, but different strokes for different folks.

1) Fear for ones kids is always warranted.
2) Is this specifically not warranted though? Hasn’t the delta variant begun impacting a much younger, healthier age group already? Sure, we don’t know exactly what the next variant will do. But viruses look for hosts and then replicate based upon success with the hosts they find. The more that older people get vaccinated, the more that the age of available hosts will decrease, right? But it seems logical to think that the next widespread variant will come from a strain that has more success with younger people. I’m no virologist, so maybe I’m wrong.

How long ago was it that everyone was saying if you aren’t under 65 and don’t have any medical issues, you have nothing to fear. But the delta variant is showing that isn’t the case. So, again, fear that the next big variant may have even a younger “target” isn’t unwarranted at all. Though maybe my logic fails somewhere in there. Wouldn’t be the first time. Hopefully I am way wrong.
 
I know many have said this, but really appreciate your updates. Your posts in particular, but the bunker overall, convinced me to change my mind.

Not political, just facts, 80% of my friends are conservatives (I am too but tend to be more open minded) and that seems to be the prevailing difference in them not getting the Vax. Even though Trump started the vaccine process, they still see it as political and don't trust the government. I don't either to an extent, but can look at the numbers from unbiased sources like you and see the facts.

I sent your stats to a friend that is hard-core antivaxx, and he sent me this....

My friend that is a doctor in Dallas said the number of internal bleeding/hemorrhaging, heart attacks and stroke post jab are VASTLY underreported. She has begged me to not get the shot.

Have you seen any of this @mrhickory ?
Not as political as the media portrays.Recent poll says unvaccinated is 41% REP 39% DEM
 
There is almost no reason to believe this will happen, which is why your fear is likely unwarranted, but different strokes for different folks.

except for those with health issues.
 
While I have not posted an update in a long while, I have been asked many times in the last few weeks with the delta surge. So here goes, my first few updates were related to treatment options and the science but this will mostly only focus on numbers. Unfortunately, at this point, healthcare professionals are just trying to keep our heads above water.

As of yesterday, we surpassed our highs (from January) for COVID census and continue to progress upward. Our numbers have skewed significantly younger and more healthy than previous. By the numbers:

My hospital

Covid census:
January 21 (previous high)-52 patients/18 in icu
Aug 2-56 patients/17 in icu

Average age:
1/21/21-66 yo (all census), 67 yo for icu
8/2/21-45 yo (all census), 43 yo in icu
We currently have 6 patients from their early 20’s to mid 30’s in ICU

% vaccinated:
Currently 94% of census unvaccinated, 100% of ICU patients unvaccinated

Ochsner System on Gulf Coast

Also at record census-84 patients hospitalized with 23 in ICU

Average age: 47 yo (all census), 44 yo for ICU

98% unvaccinated (total census), 100% unvaccinated ICU

Baton Rouge Hospitals (Our Lady of the Lake, Ochsner System)

375 patients hospitalized with average age of 44 yo and 90% unvaccinated.

We have had multiple pediatric admissions with delta as well.

We are currently at around 85% admissions from delta variant.

Regional hospitals are currently at capacity (both floor and ICU beds). We have gotten calls to attempt to transfer from as far away as Beaumont,TX, Memphis and Savannah over the last week. This is a big deal as that hospitals start closest to them and work outward. We were the 26th hospital for one of the attempts.

Other Interesting Notes:

Nearly all of our vaccinated admissions for COVID over the last 3 weeks had been vaccinated with Pfizer. We have had 2 J&J and 0 Moderna.

Interesting that my wife was diagnosed 2 weeks ago after a trip to OBA (the Buccee’s/Florabama variant). She had the Pfizer vaccine in January. I did not catch it and had Moderna. We were on a trip with 7 other couples and had 9 of 16 test positive within 3 days of leaving. Of the 9, 7 unvaccinated but 3 with previous documented covid infections and 2 had been vaccinated with Pfizer. The 7 of us that did not catch it included 4 Moderna vaccinated and 2 with previous covid infections. There were at least 6 others infected (not from our group but from our area) from the night we were at the Florabama from the upstairs bar that we were in. We were all there watching a kid play that is from here.

Delta is highly infectious and currently a symptomatic infected patient is expected to infect 8-10 unvaccinated others. Please note that delta was discovered before mass vaccination so this is not a variant “caused by vaccinations”. I have seen a few memes on the book of faces that made this assertion.

I agree with @stevesawbone about this being a pandemic of the unvaccinated. Although, Pfizer does not seem to be as effective at preventing delta, so far the data seems to show that it is pretty good at preventing severe illness. This is mostly my anecdotal observation.

Please stay safe folks.
What are your thoughts on vaccines for school age children?
 
Not according to a comprehensive study in Israel.The people with antibodies from having COVID were 6 times better at fighting the disease and also had a longer protection.

link??
 
What are your thoughts on vaccines for school age children?

Post puberty, I feel the vaccines are absolutely safe. I will be waiting a while on my 6 and 3 year old. Until a variant comes along that affects mostly that age with a high rate of morbidity. But this is my personal opinion. My 15 year old has been vaccinated.
 
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Here again, this is the info I have from their trials. I'm also comparing their numbers to some DNA vaccines which I believe produce more. I'm going to stop responding to these covid threads because it does nothing but upset me.
You don’t have any numbers from trials showing they produce very little T cells and B cells.
 
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Now that would surprise me. Conservative leaning guy myself, and literally all the antivaxxers I know, also believe trump is going to take back office in the next thirty days.

The numbers are out there. Very few minorities are taking the vaccine which are mostly overwhelmingly left.

I agree that they aren't as loud about it. But left vs right isn't all that different.

Add that on top of the media being terrified to call out those minority groups, it seems a lot different.
 
The numbers are out there. Very few minorities are taking the vaccine which are mostly overwhelmingly left.

I agree that they aren't as loud about it. But left vs right isn't all that different.

Add that on top of the media being terrified to call out those minority groups, it seems a lot different.
I have wondered how many aren’t as “loud about it.” I imagine there is a percentage that lies about having it, just so they don’t have to face the mob.
 
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The nutty anti vax conservatives are insane. But minority groups aren't taking the vaccine either. They don't trust the government.

It isn't just a conservative thing.
this is true. Somehow one of my closest friends..(normally a very smart lady) keeps getting told a bunch of crazy-sounding stories from her relatives in mexico. She is terrified of the shot and won't discuss it.. I am like 'WHHATTTT????'
 
We’ve always known there will be mutations. That’s what viruses do. Those mutations almost always result in strains that are more contagious but less lethal. And even though this delta variant is a lot more contagious, the vaccines kick its butt. I’m not saying we shouldn’t get vaccinated. Everybody should. But for those who are, it isn’t a big deal. Those who aren’t vaccinated are going to take care of themselves soon. Everybody is getting vaccinated or getting COVID over the next few months. For those vaccinated, there is nothing to fear.
i fear somehow my sweet grandson in Spanish Fort getting it and something happening to him. I know it's rare, but not impossible at all. If this kid-Delta trend continues, I'm going to be nervous as hell until he can be vaccinated.
 
It’s just my anecdotal observation. I did see one study that suggested it may only be 64% effective at preventing delta but I looked at it briefly and have been unable to find it since.
Think they’ll mix the booster vac? Say since I had Pfizer the first go around then would I get moderna if they suggest a booster.
 
i fear somehow my sweet grandson in Spanish Fort getting it and something happening to him. I know it's rare, but not impossible at all. If this kid-Delta trend continues, I'm going to be nervous as hell until he can be vaccinated.
Not sure how old your grandson is, but if it makes you feel better, for kids ages 5-17, the risk of hospitalization from COVID is about half the risk of hospitalization from the flu. The risk of death is even lower. Of course, there is concern. Even the flu is a concern, but there are a lot of other things to worry about that fall into a similar risk range. There are no guarantees except for the proverbial death and taxes, but it is very likely that he will be fine. Love and enjoy him while you have time together.
 
Not sure how old your grandson is, but if it makes you feel better, for kids ages 5-17, the risk of hospitalization from COVID is about half the risk of hospitalization from the flu. The risk of death is even lower. Of course, there is concern. Even the flu is a concern, but there are a lot of other things to worry about that fall into a similar risk range. There are no guarantees except for the proverbial death and taxes, but it is very likely that he will be fine. Love and enjoy him while you have time together.
More likely to be killed by a pit bull
 
Not sure how old your grandson is, but if it makes you feel better, for kids ages 5-17, the risk of hospitalization from COVID is about half the risk of hospitalization from the flu. The risk of death is even lower. Of course, there is concern. Even the flu is a concern, but there are a lot of other things to worry about that fall into a similar risk range. There are no guarantees except for the proverbial death and taxes, but it is very likely that he will be fine. Love and enjoy him while you have time together.
we were together this weekend (his mama and daddy made sure he was here to cheer me up about mom) and he definitely got loved on. He's only two and in daycare part time. He's little and his mother and one of my other kids got respiratory viruses very easily (like me). I'm just anxious. He is my heart walking around outside my body! LOL
 
Not sure how old your grandson is, but if it makes you feel better, for kids ages 5-17, the risk of hospitalization from COVID is about half the risk of hospitalization from the flu. The risk of death is even lower. Of course, there is concern. Even the flu is a concern, but there are a lot of other things to worry about that fall into a similar risk range. There are no guarantees except for the proverbial death and taxes, but it is very likely that he will be fine. Love and enjoy him while you have time together.
Is that from delta? I don’t think we have enough info on delta yet except anecdotal evidence. I would imagine it’s no more dangerous to kids as original Covid but it’s being spread easier so more kids will get it.
 
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Is that from delta? I don’t think we have enough info on delta yet except anecdotal evidence. I would imagine it’s no more dangerous to kids as original Covid but it’s being spread easier so more kids will get it.
No, that is pre-delta stats. I haven’t seen delta hospitalization numbers for kids yet, but, like you, expect it to be no more dangerous to kids than the OG strain. But yeah, everyone is going to get it.

ETA: This is encouraging, especially with COVID spiking in FL.

 
No, that is pre-delta stats. I haven’t seen delta hospitalization numbers for kids yet, but, like you, expect it to be no more dangerous to kids than the OG strain. But yeah, everyone is going to get it.

ETA: This is encouraging, especially with COVID spiking in FL.

They didn’t spike in the first 17 months. hopefully, that continues.
 
This delta variant is serious for people with no pre-existing conditions.

yep. It actually uses your own immune system against you when you can’t breathe, shit gets serious fast.
 
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