At least looking at the stats to date.
1) AU rushing for 150 yards is the single biggest key to this game. For reference:
AU is 4-0 when we run for 150, 0-6 otherwise. Teams that run for 150+ vs TAMU are 2-1, the rest are 0-7. The 1 game anomaly was vs Mcneese, a 47 yard garbage time run near the end of the game vs scrubs. Not relevant.
Passing for big yards vs. TAMU doesn’t help, other than setting up the run. The 3 teams that threw for the most yards vs TAMU all lost. Have to run the ball to beat them.
2) Stopping the TAMU offense
TAMU has a fairly predictable outcome based on rushing yards, total offense, and points.
TAMU is 2-2 when they run for under 150, and 6-0 when they run for over 150.
TAMU’s magic number for total offense is 350. They’re 7-0 when they go above it, 1-2 otherwise.
TAMU’s magic number for offensive points is 21, they’re 8-0 when they get there, 0-2 when they don’t.
Gotta keep them below 150 rushing, 350 total, and 21 pts.
3) Adapting to the QB that TAMU has in the game
They’ve started Weigman 3 games and Reed 4 games. As expected, the passing yards are much better in the CW games and the running yards are much better when Reed starts. The difference is about 30 yards in both cases.
With Reed, the less they throw the more they score. With CW the more they throw the more they score. Part of the challenge for Durkin this week is that if we throttle the running game with Reed, he may switch to CW, and we’ll have to run a completely different look with him.
AU has a history of making any backup QB entering the game a Heisman candidate. Gotta hold the line if they make a switch.
1) AU rushing for 150 yards is the single biggest key to this game. For reference:
AU is 4-0 when we run for 150, 0-6 otherwise. Teams that run for 150+ vs TAMU are 2-1, the rest are 0-7. The 1 game anomaly was vs Mcneese, a 47 yard garbage time run near the end of the game vs scrubs. Not relevant.
Passing for big yards vs. TAMU doesn’t help, other than setting up the run. The 3 teams that threw for the most yards vs TAMU all lost. Have to run the ball to beat them.
2) Stopping the TAMU offense
TAMU has a fairly predictable outcome based on rushing yards, total offense, and points.
TAMU is 2-2 when they run for under 150, and 6-0 when they run for over 150.
TAMU’s magic number for total offense is 350. They’re 7-0 when they go above it, 1-2 otherwise.
TAMU’s magic number for offensive points is 21, they’re 8-0 when they get there, 0-2 when they don’t.
Gotta keep them below 150 rushing, 350 total, and 21 pts.
3) Adapting to the QB that TAMU has in the game
They’ve started Weigman 3 games and Reed 4 games. As expected, the passing yards are much better in the CW games and the running yards are much better when Reed starts. The difference is about 30 yards in both cases.
With Reed, the less they throw the more they score. With CW the more they throw the more they score. Part of the challenge for Durkin this week is that if we throttle the running game with Reed, he may switch to CW, and we’ll have to run a completely different look with him.
AU has a history of making any backup QB entering the game a Heisman candidate. Gotta hold the line if they make a switch.
