Terrence Shannon Jr./Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
I'm still thinking about basketball a lot.
We all tend to think of Auburn as a team that loves to attack (and score) in transition. That is part of Bruce Pearl's DNA — at least when he has a team with a roster commensurate with the SEC's top half. Still, the frequency and effectiveness of Auburn's transition game waxes and wanes a bit more than I realized.
Here's a look at Auburn's transition stats for the past four seasons:
SEASON | NATL. RATING | 2FGA | 2FGM | 2FG% | 3FGA | 3FGM | 3FG% |
2021-22 | 61% (V Good) | 146 | 242 | 60% | 55 | 141 | 39% |
2020-21 | 15% (Poor) | 119 | 190 | 58% | 46 | 135 | 34% |
2019-20 | 47% (Good) | 132 | 220 | 60% | 41 | 126 | 33% |
2018-19 | 90% (Excellent) | 165 | 257 | 64% | 104 | 239 | 44% |
As a rule, somewhere between 17% and 22% of the Tigers' shot attempts come in transition from year to year.
This season, 19% of Auburn's shot attempts were in transition, which is higher than most.
Here's how often this season's Elite Eight teams shot in transition:
TEAM | % of FGA IN TRANSITION |
Arkansas | 17.8 |
Kansas | 17.1 |
Miami | 16.2 |
Duke | 15.5 |
Saint Peter's | 14.9 |
North Carolina | 13.6 |
Houston | 12.3 |
Villanova | 8.4 |
What does all this mean? Pearl always views transition as a big part of how Auburn scores. Pearl's best Auburn teams (2022 and 2019) were fueled by effective transition attacks, which I don't consider a fluke. He needs rim attackers for straightforward/leveraged scenarios and he needs catch-and-shoot trailers who can sink it from the perimeter when defenses are able to scramble to the rim.
This information is useful when building a roster.
With that in mind, consider this:
• Johni Broome, the F/C from Morehead State, was 25-of-28 (89%) from 2FG in transition last season, which puts him in the top 1% of all Division I players. It's worth noting that only 6% of his shots came in transition. Still, this staff believes Broome can remain similarly effective under a heavier transition workload. I'm not saying he'll be a primary transition guy, but he doesn't have to be a primary transition guy to boost the Tigers' transition game.
• Manny Bates, the C from NC State, was 7-of-10 from 2FG in transition in 2020-21 — his last healthy season. That team actually used the transition game a lot, but wasn't very good at it. Bates certainly is more of a defensive player. This number really crystalizes things.
• Chance Westry, the G/F whom Auburn signed in its Class of 2022, is viewed as a plus in both the transition and dribble-drive game. He is not a spot-up shooter at this stage of his career. We can't analyze his numbers since he hasn't yet played in a college game, but he certainly looks like a player who can bolster the Tigers' transition game during the next few years.
• Julian Phillips, the G/F whom Auburn is pursuing as a Class of 2022 signee, looks like a unicorn to me. I mean, he's a McDonald's All-American. His high-school team pushes in transition and Phillips more often makes miracles happen with alley-oops and deft bounce passes as a rim finisher. However, he also has range and can function as a trailing menace if his defensive responsibilities leave him playing catch-up on the break. Phillips' court awareness is elite. I see him as an Isaac Okoro clone except with better shooting at this stage in his development. He'd be a plus on the break for sure.
• Terrence Shannon Jr., the G/F Auburn is pursuing as a transfer from Texas Tech, was a key component of the Red Raiders' transition game. He was 24-of-32 (75%) from 2FG and 5-of-11 (46%) on the break last season. He is perhaps the best transition player in the Portal right now — he's in the 89th percentile nationally — and is without a doubt the best spot-up shooter (97th percentile) in the Portal. There's a reason Bruce Pearl has been Shannon's primary contact throughout this dalliance. He'd be an immediate shot in the arm to an offense searching for someone to pick up Jabari Smith's considerable slack.
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