The Statement:
There are only 2 ways to win an SEC and a National Championship. This also holds for making the playoffs as well.* (I use an asterisk here because it seems there is always 1 playoff team that we all know should not be included, and we know it should be another SEC team, but either they are put in to keep a conference happy or some other reason. However, this doesn't affect Auburn.
Notre Dame and Oklahoma have been the recipient several times and they are a combined 0-6 in the playoffs.
The 2 ways:
1. Over the previous 4 year recruiting cycle a team must have recruited at 30 or more Top 150sh recruits (5.9 or better on Rivals) with really good roster management. No positions left out.
Plus, this team must have an above average QB. Obviously, a better QB will take his team further.
This is not an automatic guarantee as some HCs are poor game day coaches and a few of these teams must play each other, especially in the SEC. But because this isn't an automatic guarantee doesn't mean a mediocre recruiting team will flourish, it just means a coaching staff on a particular team has squandered their talent.
2. A team must have a very good recruiting team plus a Heisman/generational QB for any given year. This means probably a minimum of 20 Top 150 recruits over the previous 4 years cycle. Think Cam Newton or Hendon Hooker.
Of course, the first is consistent year after year whereas the second is generally a 1 time thing.
No transfers have been taken into account and an excellent QB is the most impactful by far and has upgraded several teams, but most transfers are usually nice pieces but not team changing players.
1 Bama 64
2. UGA 51 ( I was surprised by this being this low)
3. Ohio St. 47
4. TAM 41^
5. LSU 40^
6. Clemson 37
7. Texas 29^ (I am not going to get picky over 1 player)
8. ND 28 (OK 2 players…I guess anything is possible)
4 of the above teams are from the SEC and so this year it is likely only 1 or 2 of these teams will make the playoffs.
OSU has a clear shot at the playoffs and probably only needs to beat Michigan.
Clemson has a clear shot and, again, with good QB play has the superior talented roster in the ACC.
Texas is the clear favorite to win the B12 but with that conference's wild offenses anything is possible. Also it is interesting to note that TCU and Oklahoma have been greatly reinforced over the past several years with transfers. TCU has 2 5 stars and 3 4 stars transferring in this year, as an example.
The non Power 5 teams lately have had some excellent teams, most notably Cincinnati where Fickell brought in several transfers from schools like OSU. However, they pretty much need to run their schedule to have a shot at the playoffs.
If I had to put money on 4 teams right now I would pick UGA, OSU, Texas, and Oregon. (USC plays at Oregon).
The following are Close but will need excellent/ Heisman QB play to be a factor:
9. Oregon 26^ (Is this Bo’s year ?)
10. Oklahoma 24 (have greatly benefited from incredible transfers over the past several years)
11. USC 24^ (Can Williams have that year ?)
12. Miami 23^
Those left that are interesting:
13. Florida 20
14. Tenn. 19^ (Can Milton do as well as Hooker ?)
14. Mich 19 ( Can McCarthy have another stellar year ?)
14. UNC 19 ( this surprised me) (Also, Maye is very good)
17. PSU 18
18. Auburn 16^
Others of Note:
From what I have seen over the years, these numbers from teams 9 through 18 are meaningless for a game played this season. They simply don't have enough talent over each other to matter. These teams have a real chance of beating each other regardless of the numbers. Coaching shows more with these teams more than anywhere else.
Where coaching does not show is when 1-8 plays these other teams, as 1-8 just has too much talent to get beat (Not 100% but USUALLY).
Upsets do occur and some teams are elevated with excellent QB play and elite teams are let down due to poor QB play, but usually an upset won’t affect much when the season is finalized.
It is very doubtful that 13 through 21 will make the playoffs. Oregon and USC at 9 and 11 have a chance due to their QB play.
The reason 30+ is the magic number is that the rules only allow 11 players on the field at a time, 11 for offense and 11 for defense. That means if you have 22 elite starters plus another 8-10 elite subs then you can compete with anyone. The 40 elite players sitting on bama’s bench do not hurt you during a game. In most important games fewer than 45 players actually get in the game.
This is how Clemson competed so well the past 10 years.
I could/did do this over the past 10 years and the results are incredible. The SEC is the toughest to predict because only 1 or 2 teams make it but 95% of the time these numbers will show you 3 of the 4 playoff teams and about 70% of the time it will show you all 4, even when the committee throws out a bone to an undeserving conference.
But what it really shows you is the teams that have very little chance and can only be elevated with Cam Newton or Nick Marshall type QB play. Good luck finding those guys !
I realize all of you, "We'll coach em' up !" guys will have a field day with this but you can't argue the results and the teams that have broken through have always been outliers in weird situations in their conferences and I believe if Auburn was in the P12 or even the B12 then we might have a chance to break through these numbers. But being in the SEC we virtually have zero chance unless we do either number 1 or number 2 above.
The good news is that HF and Co. are on their way to getting to that 30 number of Top 150 recruits over a 4 year period (very close).
Our other option is that Thorne has a Cam Newton type season.
OK, fire way !
@Docdumpsta
There are only 2 ways to win an SEC and a National Championship. This also holds for making the playoffs as well.* (I use an asterisk here because it seems there is always 1 playoff team that we all know should not be included, and we know it should be another SEC team, but either they are put in to keep a conference happy or some other reason. However, this doesn't affect Auburn.
Notre Dame and Oklahoma have been the recipient several times and they are a combined 0-6 in the playoffs.
The 2 ways:
1. Over the previous 4 year recruiting cycle a team must have recruited at 30 or more Top 150sh recruits (5.9 or better on Rivals) with really good roster management. No positions left out.
Plus, this team must have an above average QB. Obviously, a better QB will take his team further.
This is not an automatic guarantee as some HCs are poor game day coaches and a few of these teams must play each other, especially in the SEC. But because this isn't an automatic guarantee doesn't mean a mediocre recruiting team will flourish, it just means a coaching staff on a particular team has squandered their talent.
2. A team must have a very good recruiting team plus a Heisman/generational QB for any given year. This means probably a minimum of 20 Top 150 recruits over the previous 4 years cycle. Think Cam Newton or Hendon Hooker.
Of course, the first is consistent year after year whereas the second is generally a 1 time thing.
No transfers have been taken into account and an excellent QB is the most impactful by far and has upgraded several teams, but most transfers are usually nice pieces but not team changing players.
1 Bama 64
2. UGA 51 ( I was surprised by this being this low)
3. Ohio St. 47
4. TAM 41^
5. LSU 40^
6. Clemson 37
7. Texas 29^ (I am not going to get picky over 1 player)
8. ND 28 (OK 2 players…I guess anything is possible)
4 of the above teams are from the SEC and so this year it is likely only 1 or 2 of these teams will make the playoffs.
OSU has a clear shot at the playoffs and probably only needs to beat Michigan.
Clemson has a clear shot and, again, with good QB play has the superior talented roster in the ACC.
Texas is the clear favorite to win the B12 but with that conference's wild offenses anything is possible. Also it is interesting to note that TCU and Oklahoma have been greatly reinforced over the past several years with transfers. TCU has 2 5 stars and 3 4 stars transferring in this year, as an example.
The non Power 5 teams lately have had some excellent teams, most notably Cincinnati where Fickell brought in several transfers from schools like OSU. However, they pretty much need to run their schedule to have a shot at the playoffs.
If I had to put money on 4 teams right now I would pick UGA, OSU, Texas, and Oregon. (USC plays at Oregon).
The following are Close but will need excellent/ Heisman QB play to be a factor:
9. Oregon 26^ (Is this Bo’s year ?)
10. Oklahoma 24 (have greatly benefited from incredible transfers over the past several years)
11. USC 24^ (Can Williams have that year ?)
12. Miami 23^
Those left that are interesting:
13. Florida 20
14. Tenn. 19^ (Can Milton do as well as Hooker ?)
14. Mich 19 ( Can McCarthy have another stellar year ?)
14. UNC 19 ( this surprised me) (Also, Maye is very good)
17. PSU 18
18. Auburn 16^
Others of Note:
- Miss 9 (Transfer QB is their hope)
- FSU 6^
- S. Car 5 (Transfer QB is their hope)
From what I have seen over the years, these numbers from teams 9 through 18 are meaningless for a game played this season. They simply don't have enough talent over each other to matter. These teams have a real chance of beating each other regardless of the numbers. Coaching shows more with these teams more than anywhere else.
Where coaching does not show is when 1-8 plays these other teams, as 1-8 just has too much talent to get beat (Not 100% but USUALLY).
Upsets do occur and some teams are elevated with excellent QB play and elite teams are let down due to poor QB play, but usually an upset won’t affect much when the season is finalized.
It is very doubtful that 13 through 21 will make the playoffs. Oregon and USC at 9 and 11 have a chance due to their QB play.
The reason 30+ is the magic number is that the rules only allow 11 players on the field at a time, 11 for offense and 11 for defense. That means if you have 22 elite starters plus another 8-10 elite subs then you can compete with anyone. The 40 elite players sitting on bama’s bench do not hurt you during a game. In most important games fewer than 45 players actually get in the game.
This is how Clemson competed so well the past 10 years.
I could/did do this over the past 10 years and the results are incredible. The SEC is the toughest to predict because only 1 or 2 teams make it but 95% of the time these numbers will show you 3 of the 4 playoff teams and about 70% of the time it will show you all 4, even when the committee throws out a bone to an undeserving conference.
But what it really shows you is the teams that have very little chance and can only be elevated with Cam Newton or Nick Marshall type QB play. Good luck finding those guys !
I realize all of you, "We'll coach em' up !" guys will have a field day with this but you can't argue the results and the teams that have broken through have always been outliers in weird situations in their conferences and I believe if Auburn was in the P12 or even the B12 then we might have a chance to break through these numbers. But being in the SEC we virtually have zero chance unless we do either number 1 or number 2 above.
The good news is that HF and Co. are on their way to getting to that 30 number of Top 150 recruits over a 4 year period (very close).
Our other option is that Thorne has a Cam Newton type season.
OK, fire way !
@Docdumpsta
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