I went through offensive and defensive stats and opponents, to compare AU and LSU going into the game.
TLDR: LSU by ~4, all other things being equal.
Note, I only used P5 opponents here, so Samford and Mass are tossed for AU, and Grambling is tossed for LSU.
Nothing earth shattering here, but there are a few interesting insights. And it’s a limited data set, but still directionally relevant.
It’s statistical analysis, so if you don’t like stats, scroll.
LSU D vs. AU O
LSU’s D is not as bad as advertised, at least scoring-wise. It’s more that they’ve played 3 very good offenses in OM, Mizzou, and FSU. They give given up a lot of points, but only a point more than what those teams typically score as a composite. The OM and Mizzou games looked bad, but the MSU game was much better D than their relative PPG.
Combine that with our O, which comes in 7 points below the average PPG allowed by our P5 opponents, and it’s a little more unsettling. Our passing numbers are atrocious, but everyone already knows that.
The upshot – Our offense is more of a problem overall than LSU’s defense, by 6 points. Advantage LSU, but we have improved steadily, while LSU has stayed about the same.
The wildcard stat – We’re the best rushing team they’ve faced, by a large margin. They’ve faced 2 teams that average over 160 YPG rushing, and they’re 0-2 vs. them. We rush for 202 YPG.
LSU O vs. AU D
LSU’s offense has been stellar, and they put up 14 PPG more then opposing defenses allow. The bulk of the difference is passing, and they average over 100 more YPG than opposing defenses allow. We hold teams to 80 fewer YPG, so that should be a great matchup. Very much strength on strength.
AU’s D has been rock solid (24th nationally), holding teams 15 PPG below their average, even with our offense struggling. LSU hasn’t played a top 40 defense. We’re significantly better than that in both YPG and scoring. We’re much better as a defense then anyone they’ve faced, and that may a little to why their offense has looked so good.
The upshot – This is pretty evenly matched. Our defense is statistically slightly better than their offense is, relative to teams played. LSU O vs AU D is a push.
The wildcard stat – We’re the best defensive scoring team they’ve faced by a good bit. LSU has played 2 teams that give up less than 25 PPG and they’re 0-2 vs. them. We give up 18 PPG.
Surprisingly, death valley is only worth 2 points additional advantage, per one national bookie. The reputation is big, the on-field results show otherwise. If the turnovers and special teams are about even, then statistically speaking, this should be 33-28 LSU. Of course, we’ll have to see whether the wildcard stats above actually matter.
TLDR: LSU by ~4, all other things being equal.
Note, I only used P5 opponents here, so Samford and Mass are tossed for AU, and Grambling is tossed for LSU.
Nothing earth shattering here, but there are a few interesting insights. And it’s a limited data set, but still directionally relevant.
It’s statistical analysis, so if you don’t like stats, scroll.
LSU D vs. AU O
LSU’s D is not as bad as advertised, at least scoring-wise. It’s more that they’ve played 3 very good offenses in OM, Mizzou, and FSU. They give given up a lot of points, but only a point more than what those teams typically score as a composite. The OM and Mizzou games looked bad, but the MSU game was much better D than their relative PPG.
Combine that with our O, which comes in 7 points below the average PPG allowed by our P5 opponents, and it’s a little more unsettling. Our passing numbers are atrocious, but everyone already knows that.
The upshot – Our offense is more of a problem overall than LSU’s defense, by 6 points. Advantage LSU, but we have improved steadily, while LSU has stayed about the same.
The wildcard stat – We’re the best rushing team they’ve faced, by a large margin. They’ve faced 2 teams that average over 160 YPG rushing, and they’re 0-2 vs. them. We rush for 202 YPG.
LSU O vs. AU D
LSU’s offense has been stellar, and they put up 14 PPG more then opposing defenses allow. The bulk of the difference is passing, and they average over 100 more YPG than opposing defenses allow. We hold teams to 80 fewer YPG, so that should be a great matchup. Very much strength on strength.
AU’s D has been rock solid (24th nationally), holding teams 15 PPG below their average, even with our offense struggling. LSU hasn’t played a top 40 defense. We’re significantly better than that in both YPG and scoring. We’re much better as a defense then anyone they’ve faced, and that may a little to why their offense has looked so good.
The upshot – This is pretty evenly matched. Our defense is statistically slightly better than their offense is, relative to teams played. LSU O vs AU D is a push.
The wildcard stat – We’re the best defensive scoring team they’ve faced by a good bit. LSU has played 2 teams that give up less than 25 PPG and they’re 0-2 vs. them. We give up 18 PPG.
Surprisingly, death valley is only worth 2 points additional advantage, per one national bookie. The reputation is big, the on-field results show otherwise. If the turnovers and special teams are about even, then statistically speaking, this should be 33-28 LSU. Of course, we’ll have to see whether the wildcard stats above actually matter.
