I took a pretty close look at our play-by-play stats. Sorry if this is not 100% accurate - this was gleaned from the ESPN play-by-play stats and further, sorry if a lot of this is obvious. I did find quite a bit of it interesting. Unless otherwise noted, stats exclude plays which resulted in a penalty and goal-line situations (to improve comparability on average yards). If you find an error, please let me know and I'll fix ASAP.
WE ARE VERY PREDICTABLE IN CERTAIN SITUATIONS...BUT IT DOESN'T MATTER
ANYWAYS - flame away people.
WE ARE VERY PREDICTABLE IN CERTAIN SITUATIONS...BUT IT DOESN'T MATTER
- On first down (excl. goal-line and plays that resulted in penalties), we ran 24 of 27x (89%) and averaged 5.3 ypc (yards/carry). In the fourth quarter, we ran on all 7 first downs, but still averaged 4.3ypc.
- On second downs with >3 yards to go, we passed 10 times in 14 situations (71%), including all 6 situations which were "long" (>7yds to convert). Yet, we still averaged 8.5 yards/attempt (y/a) overall and 11.5 y/a on long situations (JJ was a sniper here - 4 of 6, 17.3yds avg. per completion). On the flip side, we ran 6x in 7 second and short situations yet averaged 4.3 ypc and converted 4 of 6.
- On 13 third downs, only 4 plays resulted in first downs. The remainder of third downs were comprised of 4 fourth downs, 2 INTs and 3 penalties. On plays which did not result in penalties, we only average 3.1 yards per play (compared to 6 yards per play on downs 1-2).
- All 3 penalties extended short (2) and mid (1) conversion distances to long distances (of which none were converted). Note that we were 3/3 in converting third and 1-7 yards to go (short-to-mid) in plays that did not result in penalties.
- Out of 7 third and long situations, we converted once (see below....though)
- JJ was 1/5 on third and long and only 2/6 overall on third down. His YPA was a paltry 3.2 yards on third down overall.
- Our average yard/play on 3rd down was ~3.1yd/play, compared to ~6 yd/play on downs 1-2
- Remember that one third and long conversion I mentioned? Talk about clutch - it was a 3rd and 8 toss to Duke Williams late in the 2nd half which eventually resulted in the go-ahead TD that won us the game.
- No penalties on any of our 3 TD drives (with 1 on our FG drive)
- Only faced one third down on 3 TD drives and two on FG drive.
- On average, gained 7.15yards/play on first and second downs on TD drives
- Zero passes on first down
- Play call was heavily run slanted - 19 runs to 5 passes on TD drives
- 70% pass completion (100% on TD drives) on scoring drives.
- Four penalties on six drives
- The 3 pass plays called on first down were all on drives that resulted in INTs.
- 7 third downs faced (only 2 converted).
- On our 2 punting drives (both 3 and outs), we averaged only 0.5 yards/carry on 1st down.
- On INT drives, 7 passes to 10 runs. JJ's only incompletions on these drives were the INTs and all three INTs were preceded by long (>7yds) passing plays, meaning, did he get overconfident?
- Despite how predictable we may be on first down and other certain situations, we are still extremely effective at moving the football. So, it doesn't matter.
- Penalties must be avoided and are drive killers. We absolutely cannot afford them.
- Passing on first down may not predict the overall success of a drive.
- As much as we crucify JJ, our ability to run the football was ultimately the success factor in whether we scored or not. We just need JJ to not make stupid mistakes and get overconfident.
ANYWAYS - flame away people.
