We are coming up on the last weekend of SEC softball competition, and somehow, our Tigers are tied for third place in the conference. We share a 13-8 record with the hated Razorbacks. Georgia is ahead of us in sole possession of 2nd place at 15-5, and Tennessee leads at 17-4. Alabama is a game behind Auburn and Arkansas in 5th place at 12-9, and LSU is a game behind them at 11-10.
The important thing is to finish at least 4th, as the top 4 teams do not play on Wednesday, and would only have to win 3 games to win the tournament.
So let's break down some scenarios! What does Auburn have to do against the next-to-last-place MSU Bulldogs to secure one of those top-4 seeds?
SCENARIO 1: Auburn sweeps MSU. In this case, Auburn could claim the 2 seed with an LSU sweep of Georgia in Baton Rouge and one Arkansas loss against Missouri. If Arkansas sweeps Mizzou, they would claim the 2 seed in this case, Auburn would be 3, and Georgia 4. Should Georgia win at least 1 against LSU, they would reclaim the 2 seed and Auburn and Arkansas would be fighting for 3 and 4. Importantly, Auburn is guaranteed a top-4 seed and a Wednesday bye if they sweep the Bulldogs.
SCENARIO 2: Auburn loses one game (guess which one?) against the Bulldogs, but takes the series. In this case, the 2 seed is lost to them, but importantly, they cannot drop below 4, because both Auburn and Arkansas hold the tiebreaker advantage over the hated Crimson Tide by virtue of taking a series from them during the season- both in Tuscaloosa. Even an Alabama sweep of Ole Miss would only tie them with Auburn, guaranteeing Auburn at least the 4 seed.
SCENARIO 3: Auburn loses two - or worse, 3 games to MSU. I'm not even going to math this one out. Wailing, gnashing of teeth, dogs and cats living together, real end-of-the-world stuff here.
IN CONCLUSION: Two Auburn wins over the hated Starkvegas Bullpups would mean at least a top-4 SEC finish for the Fighting Mickey Deans, and give us a Wednesday bye in the tournament. Anything less would be unacceptable.
The important thing is to finish at least 4th, as the top 4 teams do not play on Wednesday, and would only have to win 3 games to win the tournament.
So let's break down some scenarios! What does Auburn have to do against the next-to-last-place MSU Bulldogs to secure one of those top-4 seeds?
SCENARIO 1: Auburn sweeps MSU. In this case, Auburn could claim the 2 seed with an LSU sweep of Georgia in Baton Rouge and one Arkansas loss against Missouri. If Arkansas sweeps Mizzou, they would claim the 2 seed in this case, Auburn would be 3, and Georgia 4. Should Georgia win at least 1 against LSU, they would reclaim the 2 seed and Auburn and Arkansas would be fighting for 3 and 4. Importantly, Auburn is guaranteed a top-4 seed and a Wednesday bye if they sweep the Bulldogs.
SCENARIO 2: Auburn loses one game (guess which one?) against the Bulldogs, but takes the series. In this case, the 2 seed is lost to them, but importantly, they cannot drop below 4, because both Auburn and Arkansas hold the tiebreaker advantage over the hated Crimson Tide by virtue of taking a series from them during the season- both in Tuscaloosa. Even an Alabama sweep of Ole Miss would only tie them with Auburn, guaranteeing Auburn at least the 4 seed.
SCENARIO 3: Auburn loses two - or worse, 3 games to MSU. I'm not even going to math this one out. Wailing, gnashing of teeth, dogs and cats living together, real end-of-the-world stuff here.
IN CONCLUSION: Two Auburn wins over the hated Starkvegas Bullpups would mean at least a top-4 SEC finish for the Fighting Mickey Deans, and give us a Wednesday bye in the tournament. Anything less would be unacceptable.
