No. 5 Auburn vs. No. 12 New Mexico State: This is a great game. Auburn has excellent guards in Jared Harper and Bryce Brown, and a corps of terrific perimeter shooters. The Tigers force a turnover on 25 percent of their opponents' possessions, third in Division I. New Mexico State has won 30 games and has great depth. The Aggies outrebound opponents by more than nine rebounds per game, third in Division I, and allow only 8.3 transition points on average. New Mexico State plays 10 guys and leads the nation in bench minutes. Still, as dangerous as the Aggies are, the Tigers should win and move forward. Bruce Pearl will have Auburn prepared.
No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 13 Northeastern: Kansas' résumé has the Jayhawks among the top 16 teams in the country. I am not sure they will be able to reach the destination of the Final Four, or even the second weekend. Kansas defends well but does not score as easily as it has in the past. If KU had Udoka Azubuikeand Lagerald Vick, this would be a Final Four team. Without those guys, this team is young and thin. Dedric Lawson is one of the best and most efficient big men in the nation, and he will be on NBA scouts' radar. Lawson knows how to play. Northeastern will be a handful. Bill Coen has five starters back from a team that should have gotten to the NCAA tournament last year but lost a big lead to Charleston. Vasa Pusica averages 17.8 points and is one of the most competitive guards in the country. Pusica always seems to rise to the occasion, scoring 30 points in last year's Colonial title game and 21 points in this year's title game. Northeastern is a terrific offensive team with a dynamic backcourt of Pusica and Jordan Roland, but Kansas should still win. Move the Jayhawks forward.
Second round
North Carolina vs. Utah State: The Tar Heels will run, rebound and wear out the Aggies. Queta can hang with Carolina, but he might be breathing hard at the end of the game after running so much. Expect Carolina to move to the second weekend.
Auburn vs. Kansas: This is where it ends for a depleted Kansas team. This group has worked hard for Bill Self and done some amazing things. Still, the Jayhawks' roster was too thin to win the Big 12 title. Auburn will win this game.
Sweet 16
North Carolina vs. Auburn: This will be a fast-paced game, even faster than the game Auburn won against Tennessee in the SEC tournament. North Carolina thrives in a full-court transition game, and Coby White and Cameron Johnson will score for the Tar Heels, while Kenny Williams will likely guard Fletcher Magee. North Carolina will win this one, but only if the Tar Heels guard the 3-point line.
Houston vs. Kentucky: Kentucky has too much talent for Houston, and too much depth. I expect Kentucky to win this game and move on to the Elite Eight.
Elite Eight
North Carolina vs. Kentucky: These teams played earlier this season, and Kentucky won. In the NCAA rematch, I favor the Tar Heels, although the Wildcats have the better and bigger frontcourt. The key to beating North Carolina is to make the Heels into a half-court team and take away transition opportunities. Kentucky can do that. Still, Carolina will move on to the Final Four.
Final Four
Michigan vs. Duke: Duke has Zion Williamson. Enough said.
Virginia vs. North Carolina: The Tar Heels will even the score after losing to Virginia at the Dean Smith Center on Big Monday.
National championship
Duke vs. North Carolina: These rivals meet in the NCAA tournament for the first time ever. North Carolina had a shot in the air to beat Duke in the ACC semifinals, but it didn't fall. If Coby White gets another chance to win at the buzzer, he makes it this time. UNC wins
No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 13 Northeastern: Kansas' résumé has the Jayhawks among the top 16 teams in the country. I am not sure they will be able to reach the destination of the Final Four, or even the second weekend. Kansas defends well but does not score as easily as it has in the past. If KU had Udoka Azubuikeand Lagerald Vick, this would be a Final Four team. Without those guys, this team is young and thin. Dedric Lawson is one of the best and most efficient big men in the nation, and he will be on NBA scouts' radar. Lawson knows how to play. Northeastern will be a handful. Bill Coen has five starters back from a team that should have gotten to the NCAA tournament last year but lost a big lead to Charleston. Vasa Pusica averages 17.8 points and is one of the most competitive guards in the country. Pusica always seems to rise to the occasion, scoring 30 points in last year's Colonial title game and 21 points in this year's title game. Northeastern is a terrific offensive team with a dynamic backcourt of Pusica and Jordan Roland, but Kansas should still win. Move the Jayhawks forward.
Second round
North Carolina vs. Utah State: The Tar Heels will run, rebound and wear out the Aggies. Queta can hang with Carolina, but he might be breathing hard at the end of the game after running so much. Expect Carolina to move to the second weekend.
Auburn vs. Kansas: This is where it ends for a depleted Kansas team. This group has worked hard for Bill Self and done some amazing things. Still, the Jayhawks' roster was too thin to win the Big 12 title. Auburn will win this game.
Sweet 16
North Carolina vs. Auburn: This will be a fast-paced game, even faster than the game Auburn won against Tennessee in the SEC tournament. North Carolina thrives in a full-court transition game, and Coby White and Cameron Johnson will score for the Tar Heels, while Kenny Williams will likely guard Fletcher Magee. North Carolina will win this one, but only if the Tar Heels guard the 3-point line.
Houston vs. Kentucky: Kentucky has too much talent for Houston, and too much depth. I expect Kentucky to win this game and move on to the Elite Eight.
Elite Eight
North Carolina vs. Kentucky: These teams played earlier this season, and Kentucky won. In the NCAA rematch, I favor the Tar Heels, although the Wildcats have the better and bigger frontcourt. The key to beating North Carolina is to make the Heels into a half-court team and take away transition opportunities. Kentucky can do that. Still, Carolina will move on to the Final Four.
Final Four
Michigan vs. Duke: Duke has Zion Williamson. Enough said.
Virginia vs. North Carolina: The Tar Heels will even the score after losing to Virginia at the Dean Smith Center on Big Monday.
National championship
Duke vs. North Carolina: These rivals meet in the NCAA tournament for the first time ever. North Carolina had a shot in the air to beat Duke in the ACC semifinals, but it didn't fall. If Coby White gets another chance to win at the buzzer, he makes it this time. UNC wins
