Seth's Sweet 16 Specials: My picks ATS for all eight regional semifinals
By Seth Davis
As always, these projections should be used for entertainment purposes only. Any similarities between these picks and the actual course of events are strictly coincidental. Obviously.
Loyola vs. Nevada (-1½), Thursday, 7:07 p.m. ET, CBS. I have a simple rule in picking games: When in doubt, go with the nun. So yes, Sister Jean, I like the Ramblers to advance. Loyola does not depend on creating steals or scoring in the post, which makes Nevada a comfortable matchup. The Wolf Pack isn’t the fastest team you’ll see (they’re ranked 105th in the country in tempo), but they do depend on having a quickness advantage in the halfcourt. That will be offset by Loyola’s defense (27th in efficiency) and ability to control pace (319th). The pick: Loyola
Texas A&M vs. Michigan (-2½), Thursday, 7:37 p.m., TBS. I’ve been driving the Michigan bandwagon since New Year's Day, but this one spooks me. There is no more imposing interior defender in this tournament than Robert Williams, who has the size and explosiveness that calls to mind another Aggie, DeAndre Jordan. What’s really scary is that Williams has three other agile bigs playing alongside him in 6-10 senior Tonny Trocha-Morelos, 6-10 junior Tyler Davis and 6-9 junior D.J. Hogg (who has also made 64 3-pointers this season, the most on the team). But as much as Texas A&M clamped down on North Carolina, Michigan is actually the more efficient defensive team, and the Wolverines take great care of the ball (fourth nationally in turnover percentage). I’m also thinking the Aggies will revert to the mean on their outside shooting after going 10-for-24 from behind the arc against North Carolina. The pick: Michigan
Kansas State vs. Kentucky (-10), Thursday, 9:37 p.m., CBS. For all the talk about Loyola, Nevada, Florida State and Syracuse, Kansas State is the most unlikely Sweet 16 team. Not only were the Wildcats offensively challenged while going 10-8 in the Big 12 this season, but they have played the last three games without 6-10 junior forward Dean Wade, their leading scorer and rebounder, who was out with a foot injury. Wade said he will try to give it a go on Thursday night, but it won’t matter against a Kentucky team that deploys a fleet of long-winged gazelles in the frontcourt. I love the way Kentucky has been defending with purpose the last month, but mostly I love the rapid improvement of 6-6 freshman point guard Shae Gilgeous-Alexander, who is coming off a stellar 27-point, six-rebound, six-assist performance in the win over Buffalo. The pick: Kentucky
Florida State vs. Gonzaga (-5½), Thursday, 10:07 p.m., TBS. Gonzaga doesn’t use as many players as Florida State, but it does have a longer roster of guys who can take over with their offense. Against Ohio State, the Zags survived subpar outings from their two leading scorers, forwards Johnathan Williams and Killian Tillie, as well as 6-3 junior point guard Josh Perkins. That's because 6-5 freshman guard Zach Norvell Jr. and 6-8 sophomore forward Rui Hachimura were sensational (combined 53 points on 17-for-29 shooting). I also like that Perkins is an experienced floor general who doesn’t need to score to control the game, especially since the Seminoles will want to play at a fast tempo. And while Gonzaga isn’t quite as good defensively as it was last year, it will put up more resistance at that end of the floor than Xavier did. The pick: Gonzaga
Clemson vs. Kansas (-4½), Friday, 7:07 p.m., CBS. All praise to Clemson for its 31-point shellacking of Auburn on Sunday, but I’m a little surprised the line is this small. Devonte’ Graham had one of his worst games of the season in the second round, and 7-foot sophomore center Udoka Azubuike was only available for limited minutes. Yet the Jayhawks still fought off a physical, plucky Seton Hall team to win by four. With another six days to recover, Azuibuike should be closer to full strength, and I highly doubt Graham will turn in another clunker. Throw in a rock chalky home crowd in Omaha, and I like the Jayhawks to pull away for a comfortable win. The pick: Kansas
West Virginia vs. Villanova (-5), Friday, 7:27 p.m., TBS. This is by far the most delicious matchup of the Sweet 16: Press Virginia against Guard U. Much of the pregame dialogue will center on whether the Wildcats can limit their turnovers, but I say this game will hinge on whether the Mountaineers can limit their fouls. West Virginia was ranked 337th in the country this season in defensive free throw rate. That might be a necessary evil for going for all those traps and steals, but in this case it will really help a Villanova team that has struggled at times getting to the foul line while jacking too many 3s. The Wildcats took 41 3s – 65 percent of their attempts – against Alabama while only attempting 16 free throws. They rank 305th in the country in offensive free throw rate. It’s impossible to prepare for the relentlessness of West Virginia’s pressure, and though I’m sure Jevon Carter relishes the opportunity to guard Jalen Brunson, Brunson has faced his share of tough, gritty, defensive guards in the Big East. In the end, I expect Villanova to beat the press for open 3s and take advantage of West Virginia’s propensity to foul. Can’t wait to watch. The pick: Villanova
Syracuse vs. Duke (-11½), Friday, 9:37 p.m., CBS. This is a dream matchup for a zone-o-phile like me. We should stop being surprised when Jim Boeheim’s team overachieves in March. It’s not just because the zone is so good (it is); it’s also because it’s so unfamiliar. That will be less of an advantage here for three reasons. First, Duke is also a fulltime zone team now, which presumably means the players and coaches should be more comfortable trying to score against it. Second, by the time this game tips off, Mike Krzyzewski will have had six days, not two, to prepare his players for the Syracuse zone. Third and most important, Duke has already played against that Syracuse once this season, and it resulted in a 60-44 win. So why pick an underdog here? Because it will be played at a slow tempo, it’s the NCAA Tournament and that is a pretty big point spread. I doubt Syracuse can win, but I think it can hang. The pick: Syracuse
Texas Tech vs. Purdue (-1½), Friday, 9:57 p.m., TBS. Many people might see Isaac Haas’s injury as a reason to tilt toward Texas Tech, but I feel the opposite. The Red Raiders are offensively challenged at times, but they are speedy, athletic and tough on defense, which means the smaller Purdue lineup might be better-equipped to combat it. Still, the Red Raiders are ranked No. 4 in the country in defensive efficiency, and now that senior guard Keenan Evans is on the mend while treating his sprained toe, Texas Tech is back to showing the form it had in early February when it appeared headed for the Big 12 title. The pick: Texas Tech
