8-game model could be gaining steam as SEC spring meetings approach
Story by Zach Barnett • Yesterday 1:46 PM
8-game model could be gaining steam as SEC spring meetings approach© Provided by Football Scoop
If you're invested in seeing the SEC play a 9-game conference schedule, the latest bits of news to come out of the conference are either A) a warning shot, B) a cry for help, C) a negotiating ploy, or D) all of the above. If you're not invested seeing the SEC move its schedule from eight games to nine or are (understandably) nauseated by a topic that has dragged on for years now... well, why are you here?
There's a lot to digest here, so let's break it all down into bite-sized chunks.
What are we talking about here? Once Texas and Oklahoma come aboard in 2024, the SEC will abandon the divisional structure it's employed since 1992 and simply pit all 16 teams into one race for the two berths in the SEC Championship.
This much is settled. The question is whether the league moves to:
A 1 + 7 model, where each team plays one annual revival and rotates through the other 14 teams every other year,
or
A 3 + 6 model, where each team plays plays three teams annually and rotates through the 12 remaining teams semi-annually.
Briefly, what are the arguments for each?
The 3 + 6 model, obviously, increases the SEC's schedule from eight to nine. It preserves every secondary rivalry, such as Auburn-Georgia, Alabama-Tennessee and Texas-Texas A&M, while possibly creating new ones. If the goal is to sell as many tickets and attract as many eyeballs as possible, this is the clear and obvious choice. Imagine putting Texas and A&M in the same conference, then not having them play every year.
Writing for The Athletic, Andy Staples compared the choice between 3 + 6 and 1 + 7 to a choice between red velvet cake and steaming elephant poop for dessert. In reality, it's not so simple.
If the SEC office could make the choice for its member institutions, 3 + 6 would be it. But that's not the case. Each school gets a vote, and the 3 + 6 model has real drawbacks, at least on some campuses. An extra SEC game means eight extra SEC losses. In a sport that penalizes losses more than it rewards victories, that matters.
If you're the AD of a middle-class SEC programs, do you think your fans would rather go 8-4, or go 7-5 and watch Auburn-Georgia on TV?
Why are we talking about this now?
The SEC's long-awaited spring meetings are next week in Destin and two news items emerged Wednesday that make the 1 + 7 model seem, if not the favorite, then no longer the heavy underdog it appeared to be months ago.
Seth Emerson, the Georgia beat writer for The Athletic, shared this:
Georgia is among the schools that in the past has favored going to nine games, and those schools were long believed to be in the majority. But during the past few months, support has wavered, and there is now a real chance that keeping an eight-game format will win out. That could make next week’s meetings dramatic, with a vote that could go either way.
For 247Sports, Brandon Marcello writes this:
SEC administrators hoping for a smooth transition to an expanded, nine-game conference schedule may face a stiff breeze of opposition next week on the sandy beaches of Florida when spring meetings begin Tuesday in Miramar Beach.
Do we know where each school stands on the issue?
According to Marcello, Arkansas, Kentucky, Mississippi State and South Carolina are in favor of 1 + 7. (We've tried to not put words in anyone's mouth here when laying out the arguments... but, honestly, isn't that who you'd expect?) Auburn, Ole Miss and Tennessee are on the fence, and Vanderbilt is non-committal. Texas and Oklahoma will be in the room for the first time and are in favor of 3 + 6, but neither get a vote.
Isn't there someone you're leaving out?
Good question, Zach.
There is, and his name is Nick Saban.
Oh, word?
“I’ve always been an advocate for playing more [conference] games,” Saban told Sports Illustrated back in March. “But if you play more games, I think you have to get the three fixed [opponents] right. They’re giving us Tennessee, Auburn and LSU. I don’t know how they come to that [decision].”
Is it possible there might be an ulterior motive at play here? Maybe a master chess move Saban has in mind?
C'mon, man. It's Nick Saban.
Two notes here:
1) Alabama already plays Auburn, Tennessee and LSU annually.
2) To date, Birmingham has not released any annual cross-matches. Everything you've seen floating around the Internet thus far has been something between "fans/media just having fun" and "informed speculation."
Saban has campaigned for nine or even 10 SEC games before, so something tells me if the SEC swapped LSU for Mississippi State (whom Bama has played 106 times to LSU's 87, and whose Starkville campus is just 82 miles away from Tuscaloosa), Saban's support would swing to 3 + 6.
Is there something else at play that you haven't mentioned it?
Of course there is: money.
“I may be saying more than Commissioner (Greg) Sankey would want me to say, but obviously if you go to a nine-game schedule, you have to be compensated for going to a nine-game schedule,” Georgia president Jere Morehead told The Athletic. “There’s still some dynamics that have to play out with our media partners.”
The SEC's all-in deal with ESPN/ABC that begins next year will grow from a scheduled $811 million per year to $926 million per year upon the additions of Texas and Oklahoma, but the SEC anticipated that ESPN would pay more for the acquisitions of Texas and Oklahoma and also for the opportunity to see 16 non-conference SEC telecasts turn into eight S-E-C telecasts.
Right now it's still waiting.
Disney is in the process of cutting jobs across the company, so Bristol may not be enthused to shell out more money for a product it already purchased.
Is there a deadline at play here?
Sort of.
The SEC announced its 2023 league schedule on Sept. 20, 2022, so there could be another 100-ish days between the spring meetings and D-Day. However, if the SEC grows its conference schedule from eight games to nine, its schools will need time to cancel on-the-books non-conference games for the 2024 season.
Every SEC school but Auburn, Oklahoma and Texas has four non-con games on the books for 2024, according to the FB Schedules database. That's 13 games that need to be canceled. Time is of the essence.
There's also a human element at play here.
You're probably tired of reading about this topic. Those in the room are certainly tired of talking about it.
“I am ready for it to be done,” Morehead said. “We’ve talked about it and talked about it. I’m not sure it will get completed (next week). We’ll see. There’s just a lot of dynamics still playing around on that issue.”
So what does all this mean? Tell me what to think!
Honestly, I'm not sure. Wednesday's news may be strategic warning shots, they may not.
Greg Sankey likes to lock the doors and keep the conversation flowing until a "unanimous" consensus emerges. I'm not sure that's possible here. I'm told a simple majority is expected to win the vote.
Will a vote be held next week, and which side will emerge victorious? If Sankey and the SEC office put their thumb on the scale, it'll be the 3 + 6 model. But if not?
In all my years studying human behavior -- and especially my years covering college football -- I've never gone wrong when betting on the side of money and the side of self-interest over the common good. And so if ESPN doesn't give the SEC assurances it'll pay up for extra SEC games, I expect the 1 + 7 model to win.
What outcome would piss the absolute most people off?
The SEC announces next week it will move to the 1 + 7 model as an interim solution, pledging to continue studying the issue before a final, final vote ahead of the College Football Playoff's expansion in 2026.
