Year 3 in this era of college sports is by and large considered the swing season for how a head coaching tenure will likely play out, and as such I thought it might be an interesting case study to look back at the 2022 coaching carousel and see how Auburn and Hugh Freeze stand compared to their P4 counterparts.
In full disclosure not every head coaching job is the same as each has its own inherit disadvantages, whether they be lack of NIL resources, stringent academic requirements, sub par personnel, difficult or unsupportive administration, poor regional recruiting area, and so on and so forth. With this in mind, remember that all progress is likely not linear nor directly correlated to wins and losses in the first couple of seasons. With that said, I’m listing the coaches below in order of how they’ve done over two seasons by win loss record, so with that said, here we go!
1. Jeff Brohm (19-8) Louisville - While not the flashiest recruiter, Brohm has proved to be a hell of a QB evaluator and a fantastic program builder. The native son of Kentucky has certainly proved to be an upgrade from his predecessor in Scott Satterfield.
2. Brent Key (18-16) Georgia Tech - Key was seen as a bridge coach hire by Rambling Wreck after missing out on Willie Fritz, and to his credit he has done quite well at rebuilding the mess Geoff Collins created at a very difficult place to accrue wins.
3. Kenny Dillingham (14-12) Arizona State - Easily the youngest coach of the group, he’s also the only coach on this list to make a College Football Playoff and win a conference championship. With one of the top QB & WR duos in the country returning, this appears on the outside looking in like it could be another big year for the Sun Devils.
4. Deion Sanders (13-12) Colorado - Having inherited probably the worst roster in all of college football at the P5 level (it was still P5 at the time), Coach Prime has moved quickly to turn around a once proud program that had struggled badly to win consistently over the last 20 years. That said, this year might be CP’s most challenging year yet without super star Travis Hunter and all Big 12 QB Sheduer Sanders no longer being the roster. Having already earned a significant extension and seeing a sizable commitment from Colorado’s administration, I’m extremely intrigued to see if the 2025 iteration of the Buffs can pick up where the prior regular season left off, or if the loss of their two stars causes some regression in the win/loss column for year 3.
5. Luke Fickell (13-13) Wisconsin - Probably the most lauded hire at the time, Fickell has struggled at Wisconsin to find the same level of winning consistency that he displayed at Cincinnati over the course of tenure there. Even for a patient program like Wisconsin, year 3 feels like a big one for a coach who was seen as a can’t miss star in this industry just 2 seasons ago.
6. Matt Rhule (12-13) Nebraska - If year 3 at Nebraska is anything like what it’s been at Rhule’s other 2 previous stops, Nebraska fans should be rejoicing at the end of this coming season. Regardless of his past, this feels like a big season for Rhule who is still overcoming some of the stigma attached to him for his highly publicized flameout in the NFL, and for Nebraska fans who have been begging for a return to their to their once proud winning ways.
7. Hugh Freeze (11-14) Auburn - Coming off of a disappointing 2024 season, Hugh Freeze finds himself with maybe the most preseason hype of anyone on this list due to his lights out recruiting the past two seasons. That said, finding consistency on the field this fall and Auburn reasserting itself as a top half team in the conference is what is being expected by its fan base come this fall. Fair or not, that is the expectation by many, so year 3 of the Freeze tenure might be the most intriguing of any coached discussed yet due to the fallout of what could happen should reasonable expectations not be met.
8. Scott Satterfield (8-16) Cincinnati - I didn’t understand this hire when it was made, and I don’t love the fit or trajectory of the program now. By all accounts Satterfield is a good man, but he has the look of someone who’ll be a Offensive Coordinator at a P4 school and not a Head Coach, sooner rather than later.
9. Troy Taylor (6-18) Stanford - Tough job to begin with, but it’s even worse when you get fired before you make it to year 3 for workplace misconduct.
10. Zach Arnett (5-6) Mississippi State - A bad fit for a difficult job that he also got under some really difficult circumstances. Unfortunately for Arnett, he made enough mistakes early on that MSU leadership decided to make a coaching change after year one. Most in the industry still see him as a very bright and talented DC, and I’ll be interested to see if he ever resumes coaching at the Power 4 level again.
11. Ryan Walters (5-19) Purdue - Fired after 2 seasons, and unfortunately just looked in over his head from day one. Talented young coach, and after some more seasoning I suspect he’ll be in the running for another head coaching job, albeit probably at a lower level.
That’s all for now, but my major take away’s from this exercise is that minus Brohm the winning percentages of the top 7 coaches on this list are all lumped pretty closely together (about .500ish), and so while some on this list have certainly had more success than others, it’s not as wide a gap in win differential as some might think.
***Bonus Note****
Also found it interesting that the top 3 coaches on this list are all an alumnus of the university they are employed by presently.
In full disclosure not every head coaching job is the same as each has its own inherit disadvantages, whether they be lack of NIL resources, stringent academic requirements, sub par personnel, difficult or unsupportive administration, poor regional recruiting area, and so on and so forth. With this in mind, remember that all progress is likely not linear nor directly correlated to wins and losses in the first couple of seasons. With that said, I’m listing the coaches below in order of how they’ve done over two seasons by win loss record, so with that said, here we go!
1. Jeff Brohm (19-8) Louisville - While not the flashiest recruiter, Brohm has proved to be a hell of a QB evaluator and a fantastic program builder. The native son of Kentucky has certainly proved to be an upgrade from his predecessor in Scott Satterfield.
2. Brent Key (18-16) Georgia Tech - Key was seen as a bridge coach hire by Rambling Wreck after missing out on Willie Fritz, and to his credit he has done quite well at rebuilding the mess Geoff Collins created at a very difficult place to accrue wins.
3. Kenny Dillingham (14-12) Arizona State - Easily the youngest coach of the group, he’s also the only coach on this list to make a College Football Playoff and win a conference championship. With one of the top QB & WR duos in the country returning, this appears on the outside looking in like it could be another big year for the Sun Devils.
4. Deion Sanders (13-12) Colorado - Having inherited probably the worst roster in all of college football at the P5 level (it was still P5 at the time), Coach Prime has moved quickly to turn around a once proud program that had struggled badly to win consistently over the last 20 years. That said, this year might be CP’s most challenging year yet without super star Travis Hunter and all Big 12 QB Sheduer Sanders no longer being the roster. Having already earned a significant extension and seeing a sizable commitment from Colorado’s administration, I’m extremely intrigued to see if the 2025 iteration of the Buffs can pick up where the prior regular season left off, or if the loss of their two stars causes some regression in the win/loss column for year 3.
5. Luke Fickell (13-13) Wisconsin - Probably the most lauded hire at the time, Fickell has struggled at Wisconsin to find the same level of winning consistency that he displayed at Cincinnati over the course of tenure there. Even for a patient program like Wisconsin, year 3 feels like a big one for a coach who was seen as a can’t miss star in this industry just 2 seasons ago.
6. Matt Rhule (12-13) Nebraska - If year 3 at Nebraska is anything like what it’s been at Rhule’s other 2 previous stops, Nebraska fans should be rejoicing at the end of this coming season. Regardless of his past, this feels like a big season for Rhule who is still overcoming some of the stigma attached to him for his highly publicized flameout in the NFL, and for Nebraska fans who have been begging for a return to their to their once proud winning ways.
7. Hugh Freeze (11-14) Auburn - Coming off of a disappointing 2024 season, Hugh Freeze finds himself with maybe the most preseason hype of anyone on this list due to his lights out recruiting the past two seasons. That said, finding consistency on the field this fall and Auburn reasserting itself as a top half team in the conference is what is being expected by its fan base come this fall. Fair or not, that is the expectation by many, so year 3 of the Freeze tenure might be the most intriguing of any coached discussed yet due to the fallout of what could happen should reasonable expectations not be met.
8. Scott Satterfield (8-16) Cincinnati - I didn’t understand this hire when it was made, and I don’t love the fit or trajectory of the program now. By all accounts Satterfield is a good man, but he has the look of someone who’ll be a Offensive Coordinator at a P4 school and not a Head Coach, sooner rather than later.
9. Troy Taylor (6-18) Stanford - Tough job to begin with, but it’s even worse when you get fired before you make it to year 3 for workplace misconduct.
10. Zach Arnett (5-6) Mississippi State - A bad fit for a difficult job that he also got under some really difficult circumstances. Unfortunately for Arnett, he made enough mistakes early on that MSU leadership decided to make a coaching change after year one. Most in the industry still see him as a very bright and talented DC, and I’ll be interested to see if he ever resumes coaching at the Power 4 level again.
11. Ryan Walters (5-19) Purdue - Fired after 2 seasons, and unfortunately just looked in over his head from day one. Talented young coach, and after some more seasoning I suspect he’ll be in the running for another head coaching job, albeit probably at a lower level.
That’s all for now, but my major take away’s from this exercise is that minus Brohm the winning percentages of the top 7 coaches on this list are all lumped pretty closely together (about .500ish), and so while some on this list have certainly had more success than others, it’s not as wide a gap in win differential as some might think.
***Bonus Note****
Also found it interesting that the top 3 coaches on this list are all an alumnus of the university they are employed by presently.
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