"We're in a goddamn free fall here," said James Jeffrey, who served as Obama's ambassador to Iraq and was a top national security aide in the George W. Bush White House.
Obama's Mideast 'free fall'
Mounting chaos in the region puts the administration on the defensive.
By Michael Crowley
Barack Obama faces a slew of Middle East crises that some call the worst in a generation, as new chaos from Yemen to Iraq - along with deteriorating U.S.-Israeli relations - is confounding the president's efforts to stabilize the region and strike a nuclear deal with Iran.
The meltdown has Obama officials defending their management of a region that some call impossible to control, even as critics say U.S. policies there are partly to blame for the spreading anarchy.
"If there's one lesson this administration has learned, from President Obama's 2009 Cairo speech through the Arab Spring, it's that when it comes to this region, nothing happens in a linear way - and precious little is actually about us, which is a hard reality to accept," said a senior State Department official.
Not everyone is so forgiving. "We're in a goddamn free fall here," said James Jeffrey, who served as Obama's ambassador to Iraq and was a top national security aide in the George W. Bush White House.
For years, members of the Obama team have grappled with the chaotic aftermath of the Arab Spring. But of late they have been repeatedly caught off-guard, raising new questions about America's ability to manage the dangerous region.
Obama officials were surprised earlier this month, for instance, when the Iraqi government joined with Iranian-backed militias to mount a sudden offensive aimed at freeing the city of Tikrit from the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant. Nor did they foresee the swift rise of the Iranian-backed rebels who toppled Yemen's U.S.-friendly government and disrupted a crucial U.S. counter terrorism mission against Al Qaeda there.
Both situations took dramatic new turns this week. The U.S. announced its support for a Saudi-led coalition of 10 Sunni Arab nations that began bombing the Houthis, while Egypt threatened to send ground troops - a move that could initiate the worst intra-Arab war in decades.
Meanwhile, the U.S. launched airstrikes against ISIL in Tikrit after originally insisting it would sit out that offensive. U.S. officials had hoped to avoid coordination with Shiite militias under the direct control of Iranian commanders in the country.
Now the U.S. is in the strange position of fighting ISIL alongside Iran at the same time it backs the Sunni campaign against Iran's allies in Yemen - even as Secretary of State John Kerry hopes to seal a nuclear deal with Iran in Switzerland within days.
On Thursday, Iran's foreign minister, who has been meeting with Secretary of State John Kerry in Switzerland to discuss Iran's nuclear program, demanded an immediate halt to the Yemen incursion.
At the same time, civil war rages on in Syria. On Thursday, Robert Menendez, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, sent Obama a letter urging him to respond to charges that the regime of Bashar Assad - a close ally of Tehran - has used chlorine gas against civilians. In late 2013, Obama threatened to punish Assad with airstrikes after his forces deployed nerve gas.
Also in chaos is Libya, home to two dueling governments - and another target of cross-border Arab military action when Egypt and the United Arab Emirates conducted airstrikes against alleged Islamic extremists there in August. That action also reportedly surprised U.S. officials.
It all amounts to a far cry from Obama's optimistic vision when he came to office suggesting that by withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq and focusing on Israeli-Palestinian peace he could stabilize, if not completely calm, the long-troubled area.
Instead, Obama looks poised to leave an even more dangerous and unpredictable region than the one he inherited in 2009.
"The mood here is that we really are at a crisis point that is unprecedented in recent memory," said Suzanne Maloney, a senior fellow in the Middle East policy center at the Brookings Institution, who spoke from the Qatari capital of Doha. "This feels more intense and more complicated" than past moments of turmoil, Maloney added.
Even the one constant in the region for the U.S. - its relationship with Israel - is as strained as it's been in almost 25 years.
Some American officials pointed to bright spots, noting that Israel faces few day-to-day security threats at the moment and that important security and intelligence cooperation with countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia remains strong.
One official called the Arab coalition against Yemen's Houthis a positive development. Kerry has supported discussions in the region about standing up a multi-nation Arab counter-terrorism force that could root out radical groups like ISIL and Al Qaeda. That would relieve pressure on the U.S. to fight radicalism directly.
On Thursday the UAE's foreign minister, Dr. Anwar Gargash, tweeted that the intervention in Yemen "has brought about a new page of Arab cooperation for security in the region."
But the idea of an Arab force has met with skepticism from a White House doubtful that oft-squabbling Arab nations can pull it off. (One supporter of the idea says it could work if limited to a handful of closely aligned members, such as Jordan, Egypt, and the UAE.)
U.S. officials also point to progress in the fight against ISIL, which began in August. On Thursday, retired Gen. John Allen, Obama's envoy to the coalition fighting ISIL, told the House Foreign Affairs Committee that the U.S.-led campaign is "clearly degrading" the group.
That effort also faces new uncertainty. After the U.S. began striking at militants in Tikrit, three Shiite militias with ties to Iran abandoned the fight there, protesting the American role.
Ultimately, senior Obama officials say, there are limits to what the U.S. can accomplish in the region. They argue that the chaos is fueled by ethnic and religious forces largely beyond America's control.
And they warn against overreacting to the roller coaster of daily news headlines in an area that rarely knows calm.
"There's a sense that the only view worth having on the Middle East is the long view," said the State Department official. "We've painfully seen that good can turn to bad and bad can turn to good in an instant, which might be a sobriety worth holding on to at moments like this."
The official offered a hopeful note, adding that a nuclear deal with Iran - which some reports say could come as soon as Sunday - could be a turning point for the region.
"The truth is, you can dwell on Yemen, or you can recognize that we're one agreement away from a game-changing, legacy-setting nuclear accord on Iran that tackles what every one agrees is the biggest threat to the region," the official said.
Authors:
Michael Crowley
mcrowley@politico.com
This post was edited on 3/27 2:20 PM by Archie
“We’re in a goddamn free fall here,”,,,
Obama's Mideast 'free fall'
Mounting chaos in the region puts the administration on the defensive.
By Michael Crowley
Barack Obama faces a slew of Middle East crises that some call the worst in a generation, as new chaos from Yemen to Iraq - along with deteriorating U.S.-Israeli relations - is confounding the president's efforts to stabilize the region and strike a nuclear deal with Iran.
The meltdown has Obama officials defending their management of a region that some call impossible to control, even as critics say U.S. policies there are partly to blame for the spreading anarchy.
"If there's one lesson this administration has learned, from President Obama's 2009 Cairo speech through the Arab Spring, it's that when it comes to this region, nothing happens in a linear way - and precious little is actually about us, which is a hard reality to accept," said a senior State Department official.
Not everyone is so forgiving. "We're in a goddamn free fall here," said James Jeffrey, who served as Obama's ambassador to Iraq and was a top national security aide in the George W. Bush White House.
For years, members of the Obama team have grappled with the chaotic aftermath of the Arab Spring. But of late they have been repeatedly caught off-guard, raising new questions about America's ability to manage the dangerous region.
Obama officials were surprised earlier this month, for instance, when the Iraqi government joined with Iranian-backed militias to mount a sudden offensive aimed at freeing the city of Tikrit from the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant. Nor did they foresee the swift rise of the Iranian-backed rebels who toppled Yemen's U.S.-friendly government and disrupted a crucial U.S. counter terrorism mission against Al Qaeda there.
Both situations took dramatic new turns this week. The U.S. announced its support for a Saudi-led coalition of 10 Sunni Arab nations that began bombing the Houthis, while Egypt threatened to send ground troops - a move that could initiate the worst intra-Arab war in decades.
Meanwhile, the U.S. launched airstrikes against ISIL in Tikrit after originally insisting it would sit out that offensive. U.S. officials had hoped to avoid coordination with Shiite militias under the direct control of Iranian commanders in the country.
Now the U.S. is in the strange position of fighting ISIL alongside Iran at the same time it backs the Sunni campaign against Iran's allies in Yemen - even as Secretary of State John Kerry hopes to seal a nuclear deal with Iran in Switzerland within days.
On Thursday, Iran's foreign minister, who has been meeting with Secretary of State John Kerry in Switzerland to discuss Iran's nuclear program, demanded an immediate halt to the Yemen incursion.
At the same time, civil war rages on in Syria. On Thursday, Robert Menendez, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, sent Obama a letter urging him to respond to charges that the regime of Bashar Assad - a close ally of Tehran - has used chlorine gas against civilians. In late 2013, Obama threatened to punish Assad with airstrikes after his forces deployed nerve gas.
Also in chaos is Libya, home to two dueling governments - and another target of cross-border Arab military action when Egypt and the United Arab Emirates conducted airstrikes against alleged Islamic extremists there in August. That action also reportedly surprised U.S. officials.
It all amounts to a far cry from Obama's optimistic vision when he came to office suggesting that by withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq and focusing on Israeli-Palestinian peace he could stabilize, if not completely calm, the long-troubled area.
Instead, Obama looks poised to leave an even more dangerous and unpredictable region than the one he inherited in 2009.
"The mood here is that we really are at a crisis point that is unprecedented in recent memory," said Suzanne Maloney, a senior fellow in the Middle East policy center at the Brookings Institution, who spoke from the Qatari capital of Doha. "This feels more intense and more complicated" than past moments of turmoil, Maloney added.
Even the one constant in the region for the U.S. - its relationship with Israel - is as strained as it's been in almost 25 years.
Some American officials pointed to bright spots, noting that Israel faces few day-to-day security threats at the moment and that important security and intelligence cooperation with countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia remains strong.
One official called the Arab coalition against Yemen's Houthis a positive development. Kerry has supported discussions in the region about standing up a multi-nation Arab counter-terrorism force that could root out radical groups like ISIL and Al Qaeda. That would relieve pressure on the U.S. to fight radicalism directly.
On Thursday the UAE's foreign minister, Dr. Anwar Gargash, tweeted that the intervention in Yemen "has brought about a new page of Arab cooperation for security in the region."
But the idea of an Arab force has met with skepticism from a White House doubtful that oft-squabbling Arab nations can pull it off. (One supporter of the idea says it could work if limited to a handful of closely aligned members, such as Jordan, Egypt, and the UAE.)
U.S. officials also point to progress in the fight against ISIL, which began in August. On Thursday, retired Gen. John Allen, Obama's envoy to the coalition fighting ISIL, told the House Foreign Affairs Committee that the U.S.-led campaign is "clearly degrading" the group.
That effort also faces new uncertainty. After the U.S. began striking at militants in Tikrit, three Shiite militias with ties to Iran abandoned the fight there, protesting the American role.
Ultimately, senior Obama officials say, there are limits to what the U.S. can accomplish in the region. They argue that the chaos is fueled by ethnic and religious forces largely beyond America's control.
And they warn against overreacting to the roller coaster of daily news headlines in an area that rarely knows calm.
"There's a sense that the only view worth having on the Middle East is the long view," said the State Department official. "We've painfully seen that good can turn to bad and bad can turn to good in an instant, which might be a sobriety worth holding on to at moments like this."
The official offered a hopeful note, adding that a nuclear deal with Iran - which some reports say could come as soon as Sunday - could be a turning point for the region.
"The truth is, you can dwell on Yemen, or you can recognize that we're one agreement away from a game-changing, legacy-setting nuclear accord on Iran that tackles what every one agrees is the biggest threat to the region," the official said.
Authors:
Michael Crowley
mcrowley@politico.com
This post was edited on 3/27 2:20 PM by Archie
“We’re in a goddamn free fall here,”,,,
