Hello, subscribers, listeners, friends,
Auburn is a mess right now. People always figure everything has to do with the football's team's 4-3 record, and that's certainly a news-maker in its own right, but it's more complicated than a football coach struggling to win football games. This really is a fable that starts with a maverick university president who chose to saddle, champion and celebrate Gus Malzahn's contract extension last winter. He did this against pointed advice that he lay low — advice dispensed by long-time Auburn people who have seen many coaching regimes fall apart despite strong appearances and strong tailwinds. Yet Leath starred in his own parade anyway. And now he's in a precarious position. Does he double down on his bet that Malzahn will be worth $49 million over seven years? Or does he offer forth a "New Phone Who Dis" and cut Malzahn at the knees knowing that the coach is owed $32 million?
It's a tough call. People with whom we've conferred aren't sure which road Leath would travel if pressed into action. See, he's really invested in this situation because he feels the pressure. Yes, everyone knows he was a central figure in The Great Malzahn Contract Debacle, though he had at least tacit support from well-regarded members of the Board of Trustees, and that debacle may cost the university a whole lot of money. There's more. Leath is unpopular on the academic side for various reasons. Everyone over there keeps talking about cost overruns associated with renovations at the president's mansion, renovations he's been overseeing, and other issues of lesser financial impact and spectacle. Leath also appears to be unpopular with the BOT for reasons I can't quite enumerate in this space. Frankly, I'm still getting up to speed on that stuff.
Still, I've never seen an Auburn president so loathed from all sides.
My opinion? His seat is at least as hot as Malzahn's.
My opinion? At least one of these men, Leath or Malzahn or both, will not be employed by Auburn University come Dec. 1.
A lot can happen between today (Oct. 17) and that random deadline I just created for effect. If Auburn loses this game at Ole Miss, which certainly is possible, Malzahn may get fired within a few days. I'd consider that a likely scenario, in fact. If Auburn wins the game in Oxford, well, I'm not sure if that changes much considering the team still has some major challenges ahead with A&M, Georgia and Alabama. From where I sit, a win against Ole Miss merely changes the timeline of an event that, honestly, feels like a foregone conclusion right now. I see no evidence of meaningful support for Malzahn at this stage. Nobody appears to have his back. Nobody is clamoring for patience. Nobody believes in Malzahn.
So what will Leath do and when will he do it?
Considering his own pressures, I believe he'll make the move that gives him the best chance to save his own job. I'm not sure what that will be — I'm still getting up to speed on that — but my gut tells me that Leath will try to string this thing out as long as possible. Why? Anything that keeps him from eating a $32 million buyout seems prudent.
There is another angle, however. Auburn may contend that it will not pay Malzahn $32 million as expected. Auburn may find ways to influence Malzahn to accept less than $32 million, though I find that difficult to envision given Malzahn's unyielding personality. But let's be honest with each other: Auburn can be a savage, cutthroat place. We've seen it many times. We saw it on Oct. 23, 1998, when Terry Bowden was cut loose with a month remaining in the season. (That 20-year anniversary is just days away!) We saw it in 2003 when Auburn officials covertly discussed Tommy Tuberville's job with Bobby Petrino while Tuberville still was employed. We saw it in 2012 when Gene Chizik was cut loose a couple years after winning a national title. And here we are again in 2018. Auburn wants to elude a $32 million payout and if past is prologue, Auburn will, in fact, elude a $32 million payout.
Treachery doesn't have to be illegal. Or even immoral.
If Auburn feels like it can make a defensible case to whittle down that buyout, I believe that fact will impact Leath's thinking when it comes to making a call on Malzahn. In that case, he'll be more likely to remove Malzahn and can say, with a straight face, that it won't cost the university a mound of money.
Can Auburn get on a winning streak and reverse all this? Sure. Anything is possible. The Tigers could beat Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Georgia and Liberty before heading to Tuscaloosa. The possibility seems remote, especially given the tensions felt throughout the Athletic Complex right now, but there is a way out for Malzahn. That's how he sees it. He genuinely believes he'll fix this team's problems and pull a rabbit out of his hat. We've seen him do it before, but his new audience no longer is captivated easily.
He's in a concert hall full of skeptics. They're ill-tempered. And they're ready for the next act to begin.
Auburn is a mess right now. People always figure everything has to do with the football's team's 4-3 record, and that's certainly a news-maker in its own right, but it's more complicated than a football coach struggling to win football games. This really is a fable that starts with a maverick university president who chose to saddle, champion and celebrate Gus Malzahn's contract extension last winter. He did this against pointed advice that he lay low — advice dispensed by long-time Auburn people who have seen many coaching regimes fall apart despite strong appearances and strong tailwinds. Yet Leath starred in his own parade anyway. And now he's in a precarious position. Does he double down on his bet that Malzahn will be worth $49 million over seven years? Or does he offer forth a "New Phone Who Dis" and cut Malzahn at the knees knowing that the coach is owed $32 million?
It's a tough call. People with whom we've conferred aren't sure which road Leath would travel if pressed into action. See, he's really invested in this situation because he feels the pressure. Yes, everyone knows he was a central figure in The Great Malzahn Contract Debacle, though he had at least tacit support from well-regarded members of the Board of Trustees, and that debacle may cost the university a whole lot of money. There's more. Leath is unpopular on the academic side for various reasons. Everyone over there keeps talking about cost overruns associated with renovations at the president's mansion, renovations he's been overseeing, and other issues of lesser financial impact and spectacle. Leath also appears to be unpopular with the BOT for reasons I can't quite enumerate in this space. Frankly, I'm still getting up to speed on that stuff.
Still, I've never seen an Auburn president so loathed from all sides.
My opinion? His seat is at least as hot as Malzahn's.
My opinion? At least one of these men, Leath or Malzahn or both, will not be employed by Auburn University come Dec. 1.
A lot can happen between today (Oct. 17) and that random deadline I just created for effect. If Auburn loses this game at Ole Miss, which certainly is possible, Malzahn may get fired within a few days. I'd consider that a likely scenario, in fact. If Auburn wins the game in Oxford, well, I'm not sure if that changes much considering the team still has some major challenges ahead with A&M, Georgia and Alabama. From where I sit, a win against Ole Miss merely changes the timeline of an event that, honestly, feels like a foregone conclusion right now. I see no evidence of meaningful support for Malzahn at this stage. Nobody appears to have his back. Nobody is clamoring for patience. Nobody believes in Malzahn.
So what will Leath do and when will he do it?
Considering his own pressures, I believe he'll make the move that gives him the best chance to save his own job. I'm not sure what that will be — I'm still getting up to speed on that — but my gut tells me that Leath will try to string this thing out as long as possible. Why? Anything that keeps him from eating a $32 million buyout seems prudent.
There is another angle, however. Auburn may contend that it will not pay Malzahn $32 million as expected. Auburn may find ways to influence Malzahn to accept less than $32 million, though I find that difficult to envision given Malzahn's unyielding personality. But let's be honest with each other: Auburn can be a savage, cutthroat place. We've seen it many times. We saw it on Oct. 23, 1998, when Terry Bowden was cut loose with a month remaining in the season. (That 20-year anniversary is just days away!) We saw it in 2003 when Auburn officials covertly discussed Tommy Tuberville's job with Bobby Petrino while Tuberville still was employed. We saw it in 2012 when Gene Chizik was cut loose a couple years after winning a national title. And here we are again in 2018. Auburn wants to elude a $32 million payout and if past is prologue, Auburn will, in fact, elude a $32 million payout.
Treachery doesn't have to be illegal. Or even immoral.
If Auburn feels like it can make a defensible case to whittle down that buyout, I believe that fact will impact Leath's thinking when it comes to making a call on Malzahn. In that case, he'll be more likely to remove Malzahn and can say, with a straight face, that it won't cost the university a mound of money.
Can Auburn get on a winning streak and reverse all this? Sure. Anything is possible. The Tigers could beat Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Georgia and Liberty before heading to Tuscaloosa. The possibility seems remote, especially given the tensions felt throughout the Athletic Complex right now, but there is a way out for Malzahn. That's how he sees it. He genuinely believes he'll fix this team's problems and pull a rabbit out of his hat. We've seen him do it before, but his new audience no longer is captivated easily.
He's in a concert hall full of skeptics. They're ill-tempered. And they're ready for the next act to begin.
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