I've seen a lot of negative expectations on the board recently and I feel differently about the upcoming season than seemingly everyone else so I wanted to do a deep dive as to why.
TLDR: I think we end up with 8-10 wins
Offense: Last season our offense lost us a lot of games and made games that should've been blowouts into nail biters. This season every single position group will be better. OL got better with more experience and more talent. RB will get better because everyone has one more year of experience this season. I expect Alston to make a huge impact alongside Hunter this season. WR got the biggest overhaul of the offseason. Last year, we didn't have a single guy that was worthy of being a starter in the SEC. This year we have two transfers in Lewis and Lambert-Smith that seem to be better than anyone we had last year. Also, we have a star studded freshman class highlighted by Cam Coleman who might be the best WR to ever play on the plains. At TE Fairweather will have more experience and a better body. Lastly QB, anyone with two eyes was left unimpressed by Thorne, myself included. I was in the same boat as most of you, hoping to sign a transfer QB. After we didn't, I've thought about him and our situation with him a lot. Last year, he didn't participate in spring which is huge for the QB position. He also had a terrible receiving staff, as I mentioned above, that created no separation and had a bunch of drops to go along with the separation. This year, he has a whole season, spring ball, and a bolstered receiving staff to help him make a huge jump in production. I'm not expecting a Heisman type season by any means but that's fine he will still be greatly improved with the better help around him.
Defense: The defense is a bigger question mark for me due to the talent, especially in the secondary, that we lost but it sounds as though the new pieces did well in the spring. My one worry on the defensive side of the ball is depth on the D-line. Im confident in the starters but big boys need breathers and only time will tell if the other transfers and incoming freshman have what it takes to play at this level.
Week 1: Alabama A&M 6:30 (95%)
I really don't see a chance we lose this one but crazier things have happened in CFB so I'll give them a 5% chance at an upset
Week 2: Cal 2:30 (75%)
I don't know anything about this Cal team but they got left high and dry by conference realignment. I can't imagine this team is more talented than they were last year and they looked bad last year. We get them at home and an early kickoff means they'll be dealing with the heat and humidity in full force. I see a 14+ point victory here.
Week 3: New Mexico 6:30 (90%)
Losing to a New Mexico school last season was the biggest head shaker from last season. The boys remember it and so do the coaches, it won't happen again.
Week 4: Arkansas (75%)
Arkansas has been awful the last two years. I see more of the same coming out of Fayetteville this year. Good guys move to 4-0.
Week 5: Oklahoma (41%)
OU plays Tenn at home the week before. This is the first game that I predict we find out how good this team can be. Hopefully it's a night game and Jordan-Hare will be rocking. OU will be a damn good team but getting them at home gives a real chance. I was going to give us a 40% chance to win but yours truly will be at his first game in 6 years after moving out west so that's got to count for something.
Week 6: @georgia (20%)
Georgia is a machine right now and Samford Stadium has not been kind to the tigers recently. I'll give us a punchers chance but don't have high hopes here.
Week 7: Bye
I love where we have our bye. After what is likely a loss, possibly 2 losses in a row with 2 road games on the horizon, this gives the team a chance to regroup and prepare for the second half of the season.
Week 8: @Mizzou (49%)
Mizzou had a great season last year but lost their D coordinator to LSU. They play UMass the week before so basically a bye. I think Mizzou is good this year but not as good as last. They have a sneaky good home field advantage but we have 2 weeks to prepare. I think it's basically a 50/50 game but since their the home team I give them a slight advantage.
Week 9: @Kentucky (55%)
If this game was at home I'd give us a much higher chance of winning but it's always tough to win on the road in the SEC. Kentucky has a brutal schedule too. I see the tigers beating the wildcats in a close one here.
Week 10: Vandy (85%)
The fact that my autocorrect kept trying to change Vandy to Candy is all you need to know about this one.
Week 11: Bye
As much as I loved when our first bye is I don't like when this one is. Sandwiched between two easy games doesn't do much for us but at least we get a late rest.
Week 12: LA-Monroe (90%)
We lost late to NM State last year so there's always a chance but I don't see it.
Week 13: Texas A&M (60%)
TBH I don't know much about this A&M team but the game being at home after a cupcake then bye then cupcake makes me like our odds.
Week 14: @turds (35%)
The team across the state still has a ton of talent but I think losing Saban can't be overstated. deboer has never been in a situation with the environment that the iron bowl brings (yes, I know he was in the natty last year). It's on the road so they definitely have the edge but we have a shot here.
Summary: I see 6 very probable W's on the schedule. The rest besides UGAly are winnable, we win some of them but definitely not all of them. Then uga is a keep it close for confidence game. As far as Auburn schedule's go, I think this one sets up very nicely for us. I think at the end of the season we're all very pleased with the outcome of the season and then start getting delusional about Natty chances in 2025.
TLDR: I think we end up with 8-10 wins
Offense: Last season our offense lost us a lot of games and made games that should've been blowouts into nail biters. This season every single position group will be better. OL got better with more experience and more talent. RB will get better because everyone has one more year of experience this season. I expect Alston to make a huge impact alongside Hunter this season. WR got the biggest overhaul of the offseason. Last year, we didn't have a single guy that was worthy of being a starter in the SEC. This year we have two transfers in Lewis and Lambert-Smith that seem to be better than anyone we had last year. Also, we have a star studded freshman class highlighted by Cam Coleman who might be the best WR to ever play on the plains. At TE Fairweather will have more experience and a better body. Lastly QB, anyone with two eyes was left unimpressed by Thorne, myself included. I was in the same boat as most of you, hoping to sign a transfer QB. After we didn't, I've thought about him and our situation with him a lot. Last year, he didn't participate in spring which is huge for the QB position. He also had a terrible receiving staff, as I mentioned above, that created no separation and had a bunch of drops to go along with the separation. This year, he has a whole season, spring ball, and a bolstered receiving staff to help him make a huge jump in production. I'm not expecting a Heisman type season by any means but that's fine he will still be greatly improved with the better help around him.
Defense: The defense is a bigger question mark for me due to the talent, especially in the secondary, that we lost but it sounds as though the new pieces did well in the spring. My one worry on the defensive side of the ball is depth on the D-line. Im confident in the starters but big boys need breathers and only time will tell if the other transfers and incoming freshman have what it takes to play at this level.
Week 1: Alabama A&M 6:30 (95%)
I really don't see a chance we lose this one but crazier things have happened in CFB so I'll give them a 5% chance at an upset
Week 2: Cal 2:30 (75%)
I don't know anything about this Cal team but they got left high and dry by conference realignment. I can't imagine this team is more talented than they were last year and they looked bad last year. We get them at home and an early kickoff means they'll be dealing with the heat and humidity in full force. I see a 14+ point victory here.
Week 3: New Mexico 6:30 (90%)
Losing to a New Mexico school last season was the biggest head shaker from last season. The boys remember it and so do the coaches, it won't happen again.
Week 4: Arkansas (75%)
Arkansas has been awful the last two years. I see more of the same coming out of Fayetteville this year. Good guys move to 4-0.
Week 5: Oklahoma (41%)
OU plays Tenn at home the week before. This is the first game that I predict we find out how good this team can be. Hopefully it's a night game and Jordan-Hare will be rocking. OU will be a damn good team but getting them at home gives a real chance. I was going to give us a 40% chance to win but yours truly will be at his first game in 6 years after moving out west so that's got to count for something.
Week 6: @georgia (20%)
Georgia is a machine right now and Samford Stadium has not been kind to the tigers recently. I'll give us a punchers chance but don't have high hopes here.
Week 7: Bye
I love where we have our bye. After what is likely a loss, possibly 2 losses in a row with 2 road games on the horizon, this gives the team a chance to regroup and prepare for the second half of the season.
Week 8: @Mizzou (49%)
Mizzou had a great season last year but lost their D coordinator to LSU. They play UMass the week before so basically a bye. I think Mizzou is good this year but not as good as last. They have a sneaky good home field advantage but we have 2 weeks to prepare. I think it's basically a 50/50 game but since their the home team I give them a slight advantage.
Week 9: @Kentucky (55%)
If this game was at home I'd give us a much higher chance of winning but it's always tough to win on the road in the SEC. Kentucky has a brutal schedule too. I see the tigers beating the wildcats in a close one here.
Week 10: Vandy (85%)
The fact that my autocorrect kept trying to change Vandy to Candy is all you need to know about this one.
Week 11: Bye
As much as I loved when our first bye is I don't like when this one is. Sandwiched between two easy games doesn't do much for us but at least we get a late rest.
Week 12: LA-Monroe (90%)
We lost late to NM State last year so there's always a chance but I don't see it.
Week 13: Texas A&M (60%)
TBH I don't know much about this A&M team but the game being at home after a cupcake then bye then cupcake makes me like our odds.
Week 14: @turds (35%)
The team across the state still has a ton of talent but I think losing Saban can't be overstated. deboer has never been in a situation with the environment that the iron bowl brings (yes, I know he was in the natty last year). It's on the road so they definitely have the edge but we have a shot here.
Summary: I see 6 very probable W's on the schedule. The rest besides UGAly are winnable, we win some of them but definitely not all of them. Then uga is a keep it close for confidence game. As far as Auburn schedule's go, I think this one sets up very nicely for us. I think at the end of the season we're all very pleased with the outcome of the season and then start getting delusional about Natty chances in 2025.
