TLDR: Good guys 37-24
I believe WURSHINTON is ranked as high as they are because the media needs a PAC12 team to be relevant for tv. Imo, UW is still riding the success of 2016 and the fruits of a poor conference. Do they have talent? Absolutely. Is Petersen a great coach? For sure. However, I don't see their offense being even as good as they were last year and I think their defense is overrated.
In 2016 Browning had 2 NFL WR's that he was throwing to. John Ross was a 1st Rd draft pick in 2017, and Dante Pettis was a 2nd Rd draft pick in 2018. From 2016-2017 (sans John Ross) Browning declined majorly in production. Last year Browning also had 4th Rd draft pick Will Dissly (21 rec 289 yds) as one of his TE. Browning has lost close to 60% (with Hunter Bryant out) of his production from last year. UW this year returns three experienced receivers. McClatcher, Fuller, and Baccellia. McClatcher is 5'7" 182, Fuller is 5'10" 187, Baccellia is 5'10" 173. They have two new receivers that are much bigger. True freshman and former 4 star Maquis Spiker who is 6'3" 180. Second Sophomore Ty Jones who is former 3 star listed at 6'4" 206. Last year Jones had 7 receptions for 71 yards. Will Spiker or Jones be the next John Ross or Dante Pettis? Possibly. However, they will both show up to Atlanta will little (obv none for Spiker) experience. Imo, the biggest receiving threat to our defense is senior TE Drew Sample. Sample is 6'5" 260 and an absolute load to bring down. Last year Sample only had 7 receptions for 84 yards, but with Hunter Bryant out I'd expect him to get at least 7-10 targets on Saturday.
Myles Gaskin is the best returning weapon for UW. His production from last year was comparable to KJ. Gaskin is without a doubt an outstanding back, but I believe his production from last year was boosted by poor defense in the PAC12. In his last outing against Penn State, Gaskin was held to 98 yards. The 98 yards against Penn State includes a 69 (nice) yard explosive run. If you exclude the outlier of the 69 yard run, he was held to 29 (!!!) yards on 13 attempts. I am not discrediting Gaskin in anyway. He is a pre-season all-conference back for a reason. However, our defense has faced plenty of backs with the same level if not more talent and Gaskin alone does not scare me. The wildcard for UW this year is Salvon Ahmed. Ahmed was a 4 star ATH out of hs. He is very explosive and shifty. Reminds me a lot of Swift from thuga. Gaskin and Ahmed are both all purpose backs and will have plenty of targets on Saturday. Last year Gaskin had 19 receptions for 232 yards and Ahmed had 13 receptions for 77 yards. Ahmed also returned kicks last year. Likely both Ahmed and Gaskin will be on KOR this year. If our KO coverage has not substantially improved from last year, there's a strong possibility that a kick could be taken to the house.
UW's offensive line anchor is left tackle Trey Adams. Adams is an all-american and projected 1st round draft pick. At 6'8" 327 he is an absolute mountain of a human being. Adams suffered a season ending knee injury last year and has just recently returned to practice. There was previous speculation that Adams may not play in Atlanta. However, he took every snap in UW's last camp scrimmage. Will he be 100% and agile enough on his knee to defend the rush against the likes of Narlob, Coe, Moultry, Bryant in pass protection? If not, Browning could be running for his life Saturday. The lesser known all-conference O-lineman for UW is right tackle Caleb McGary. McGary is another OL with eye popping size at 6'7" 310. Center/Guard Nick Harris is also hefty at 6'1" 290 EDIT: Nick Harris is 6'1" not 6'10". UW's OL has the potential to be really strong. Much like AU, their offensive success will depend if their front 5 can fend off our front 7 for 60 minutes.
Defensively there are 2 topics talked about amongst talking heads. DT Greg Gaines and the UW secondary. In 2017 DT Greg Gaines played second fiddle to 1st round draft pick Vita Vea. Greg Gaines mimics a lot of Vea. At 6'2" 320 Gaines is a pure run stopper. I've watched the Penn State , Washington State , Stanford, Arizona State, and UCLA games from last year. When these teams spread the ball out wide, Vea and Gaines were rendered essentially useless. Arizona State's (people forget that was Chip Lindsey's last team) RPO offense was very successful in limiting the impact of Vea and Gaines. In that game they were pulled midway through the second quarter in favor of a more agile Onwuzurike and saw limited time after that. Speaking of Onwuzurike. I believe that he is a bigger threat to our style of offense than Gaines. Onwuzurike is 6'3" 275 and much more of a balanced defensive lineman. He fits well in to UW's 3-4 scheme and could give Kim fits. I'd suspect we see Kim getting a lot of help from Harrell and Horton all afternoon.
UW's secondary is talked about as "the best in college football". Sure, they have Taylor Rapp at safety who is a potential 1st round draft pick and all american. He is an outstanding player. McIntosh, Joyner, Miller, and Muprhy are all also very talented and potential Sunday players. However, Jarrett has faced players like and secondaries like this before (bama, thuga) and found success. I'm just not buying the hype on the secondary. UW finished 2017 ranked 32nd in passing defense. The Huskies LB's are interesting. They're kind of just there in space. They're not super impactful and they don't have any major standout players at LB other than ILB Ben Burr-Kirven. UW's 3-4 and 3-3 Nickel defense is also intriguing. They often only rush 3 while dropping 8 into coverage. Our RPO should find lots of success against their front 7, depending on our interior (Kim) OL play.
Prediction:
The results of this game will hinge on a couple of areas on the field. As always - its the line.
For Auburn's defense to be successful the DL will absolutely have to create disruption in the backfield. Particularly on the edge. Narlob, Coe, Bryant, and Moultry must find success against two of UW's best players. Petersen said it himself on Browning - "If we don’t give him a chance to set his feet or get our run game, no one’s going to have a chance". In the 3 games that UW lost last year, the opposing teams DL put tons of pressure on Browning. If our front 4 can consistently provide pressure on a not very mobile Browning, I believe we will hold UW to under 21.
For Auburn's offense to be successful the OL has to get push against Gaines and the UW front 7. If our run game gets to a point where UW is forced to rush 4 with 7+ in the box, Stidham will find open WRs all day.
I believe our offense will struggle early (1 maybe 2 series) then after slight scheme tweaks we will be off to the races putting up 17-24 points before half. I believe our defense will show up in mid-season form, continuing their dominant performances from the majority of last season. Final score predicted at 37-24 Aubs.
I believe WURSHINTON is ranked as high as they are because the media needs a PAC12 team to be relevant for tv. Imo, UW is still riding the success of 2016 and the fruits of a poor conference. Do they have talent? Absolutely. Is Petersen a great coach? For sure. However, I don't see their offense being even as good as they were last year and I think their defense is overrated.
In 2016 Browning had 2 NFL WR's that he was throwing to. John Ross was a 1st Rd draft pick in 2017, and Dante Pettis was a 2nd Rd draft pick in 2018. From 2016-2017 (sans John Ross) Browning declined majorly in production. Last year Browning also had 4th Rd draft pick Will Dissly (21 rec 289 yds) as one of his TE. Browning has lost close to 60% (with Hunter Bryant out) of his production from last year. UW this year returns three experienced receivers. McClatcher, Fuller, and Baccellia. McClatcher is 5'7" 182, Fuller is 5'10" 187, Baccellia is 5'10" 173. They have two new receivers that are much bigger. True freshman and former 4 star Maquis Spiker who is 6'3" 180. Second Sophomore Ty Jones who is former 3 star listed at 6'4" 206. Last year Jones had 7 receptions for 71 yards. Will Spiker or Jones be the next John Ross or Dante Pettis? Possibly. However, they will both show up to Atlanta will little (obv none for Spiker) experience. Imo, the biggest receiving threat to our defense is senior TE Drew Sample. Sample is 6'5" 260 and an absolute load to bring down. Last year Sample only had 7 receptions for 84 yards, but with Hunter Bryant out I'd expect him to get at least 7-10 targets on Saturday.
Myles Gaskin is the best returning weapon for UW. His production from last year was comparable to KJ. Gaskin is without a doubt an outstanding back, but I believe his production from last year was boosted by poor defense in the PAC12. In his last outing against Penn State, Gaskin was held to 98 yards. The 98 yards against Penn State includes a 69 (nice) yard explosive run. If you exclude the outlier of the 69 yard run, he was held to 29 (!!!) yards on 13 attempts. I am not discrediting Gaskin in anyway. He is a pre-season all-conference back for a reason. However, our defense has faced plenty of backs with the same level if not more talent and Gaskin alone does not scare me. The wildcard for UW this year is Salvon Ahmed. Ahmed was a 4 star ATH out of hs. He is very explosive and shifty. Reminds me a lot of Swift from thuga. Gaskin and Ahmed are both all purpose backs and will have plenty of targets on Saturday. Last year Gaskin had 19 receptions for 232 yards and Ahmed had 13 receptions for 77 yards. Ahmed also returned kicks last year. Likely both Ahmed and Gaskin will be on KOR this year. If our KO coverage has not substantially improved from last year, there's a strong possibility that a kick could be taken to the house.
UW's offensive line anchor is left tackle Trey Adams. Adams is an all-american and projected 1st round draft pick. At 6'8" 327 he is an absolute mountain of a human being. Adams suffered a season ending knee injury last year and has just recently returned to practice. There was previous speculation that Adams may not play in Atlanta. However, he took every snap in UW's last camp scrimmage. Will he be 100% and agile enough on his knee to defend the rush against the likes of Narlob, Coe, Moultry, Bryant in pass protection? If not, Browning could be running for his life Saturday. The lesser known all-conference O-lineman for UW is right tackle Caleb McGary. McGary is another OL with eye popping size at 6'7" 310. Center/Guard Nick Harris is also hefty at 6'1" 290 EDIT: Nick Harris is 6'1" not 6'10". UW's OL has the potential to be really strong. Much like AU, their offensive success will depend if their front 5 can fend off our front 7 for 60 minutes.
Defensively there are 2 topics talked about amongst talking heads. DT Greg Gaines and the UW secondary. In 2017 DT Greg Gaines played second fiddle to 1st round draft pick Vita Vea. Greg Gaines mimics a lot of Vea. At 6'2" 320 Gaines is a pure run stopper. I've watched the Penn State , Washington State , Stanford, Arizona State, and UCLA games from last year. When these teams spread the ball out wide, Vea and Gaines were rendered essentially useless. Arizona State's (people forget that was Chip Lindsey's last team) RPO offense was very successful in limiting the impact of Vea and Gaines. In that game they were pulled midway through the second quarter in favor of a more agile Onwuzurike and saw limited time after that. Speaking of Onwuzurike. I believe that he is a bigger threat to our style of offense than Gaines. Onwuzurike is 6'3" 275 and much more of a balanced defensive lineman. He fits well in to UW's 3-4 scheme and could give Kim fits. I'd suspect we see Kim getting a lot of help from Harrell and Horton all afternoon.
UW's secondary is talked about as "the best in college football". Sure, they have Taylor Rapp at safety who is a potential 1st round draft pick and all american. He is an outstanding player. McIntosh, Joyner, Miller, and Muprhy are all also very talented and potential Sunday players. However, Jarrett has faced players like and secondaries like this before (bama, thuga) and found success. I'm just not buying the hype on the secondary. UW finished 2017 ranked 32nd in passing defense. The Huskies LB's are interesting. They're kind of just there in space. They're not super impactful and they don't have any major standout players at LB other than ILB Ben Burr-Kirven. UW's 3-4 and 3-3 Nickel defense is also intriguing. They often only rush 3 while dropping 8 into coverage. Our RPO should find lots of success against their front 7, depending on our interior (Kim) OL play.
Prediction:
The results of this game will hinge on a couple of areas on the field. As always - its the line.
For Auburn's defense to be successful the DL will absolutely have to create disruption in the backfield. Particularly on the edge. Narlob, Coe, Bryant, and Moultry must find success against two of UW's best players. Petersen said it himself on Browning - "If we don’t give him a chance to set his feet or get our run game, no one’s going to have a chance". In the 3 games that UW lost last year, the opposing teams DL put tons of pressure on Browning. If our front 4 can consistently provide pressure on a not very mobile Browning, I believe we will hold UW to under 21.
For Auburn's offense to be successful the OL has to get push against Gaines and the UW front 7. If our run game gets to a point where UW is forced to rush 4 with 7+ in the box, Stidham will find open WRs all day.
I believe our offense will struggle early (1 maybe 2 series) then after slight scheme tweaks we will be off to the races putting up 17-24 points before half. I believe our defense will show up in mid-season form, continuing their dominant performances from the majority of last season. Final score predicted at 37-24 Aubs.
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