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Mathematical advantage of 4 seed vs 5 seed

I4CAW

First Round Draft Pick
Gold Member
May 29, 2001
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Posted this in another thread but thought it might be of broader interest:

Since the NCAAT field expanded in 1985, the 5 seeds have lost 34.87% of the games (53-99). The 4 seeds dropped 32-120 (21.07%).

So, 65% more 12 seed upsets have happened. Percentage of higher seed victories for all 1st round matchups:

1/16 --> 1.32%
2/15 --> 7.24%
3/14 --> 14.47%
4/13 --> 21.07%
5/12 --> 34.87%
6/11 --> 37.50%
7/10 --> 38.82%
8/9 --> 51.3%

Also, the 5 seed is the only position among the top 8 seeds from which no team has won a championship the last 38 seasons.
 
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