OK, It’s a long post, but I thought it might be worthy of discussing. I’ve seen pieces of this, but putting it all together makes for some (IMO) interesting conversations. Here’s why I think AU’s offense will be much improved. And I added some numbers, so you can play along and add up your own #s if you are so inclined.
TLDR: I think AU’s offense will improve from 10th in the SEC to around 5th, and I’m listing the reasons why.
WR room
Last year’s starters were Var/JJ/Burton, Hooks, and Brown. This year’s will likely be Coleman, KLS, and Lewis. Is Coleman an upgrade from Brown? Is KLS an upgrade from Hooks? Is Lewis an upgrade at slot? I think all 3 are upgrades, and 2 of them are significant upgrades. On the bench, is Perry Thompson better off the bench than Shorter? We can go deeper, but realistically the top 4 is the critical component, and it's a lot better.
How much so? I’d argue Coleman is good for 2 more catches/game, KLS is good for 1-2, and Lewis 1-2. The bench upgrades are probably good for 1/game as well. I’d argue the WR room adds 30-40 yards/game to next year’s passing. If you want to play along – how much do you think the WR upgrades add, in terms of catches or yards/game?
Better QB
Yes, it’s still Thorne. But there are several reasons to think he’ll play better, including 2nd year in the system, better coaching with BHF, no more rando swapping Robby in and out, and a better all-around surrounding cast. I’d say the first 3 are worth 10-15 yards/game (the last one is factored in elsewhere).
Better RBs
Same top 3 overall, but they’ll all be a year bigger, faster, and stronger. Let’s be conservative and give it 5-10 yards/game based on that.
Better TE room
Fairweather is back, and with the surrounding talent, he should get more opportunities for mismatches. Deal, Frazier, and Riley are all back too. Let’s say they as a group pick up one more catch/game, so maybe 10 yards/game additional.
Better OL
Last year all 5 OL were first year starters at AU. Three of them are back as returning starters, and we upgraded at one of the other two spots. Losing Britton is the only real impact, and the other 4 spots should be improved this Fall. I think it’s fair to say we’ll give up half a sack less and add 10 yards rushing/game from the OL.
Coaching improvement
There was a lot of talk about last year’s offense not watching enough film, WRs not understanding the reads, and conflict between BHF and Monty. This year, BHF has his coaches and is running the show. That has to result in improvement. I’d give it 20 yards/game.
Rolling all that up
If you take each of those areas and stack them:
WRs: +35 yards/game
QB: +10 yards/game
RBs: +5 yards/game
TEs: +10 yards/game
OL: +15 yards/game
Coaching: +20 yards/game
I’d total that up as roughly +90 yards/game, which would have put us 5th in the SEC last year. That would add about 8 pts/game, also putting us 5th in scoring.
Maybe you think that’s too optimistic. I’d be curious to see anyone else’s opinions on how much each of these areas might improve the offense.
TLDR: I think AU’s offense will improve from 10th in the SEC to around 5th, and I’m listing the reasons why.
WR room
Last year’s starters were Var/JJ/Burton, Hooks, and Brown. This year’s will likely be Coleman, KLS, and Lewis. Is Coleman an upgrade from Brown? Is KLS an upgrade from Hooks? Is Lewis an upgrade at slot? I think all 3 are upgrades, and 2 of them are significant upgrades. On the bench, is Perry Thompson better off the bench than Shorter? We can go deeper, but realistically the top 4 is the critical component, and it's a lot better.
How much so? I’d argue Coleman is good for 2 more catches/game, KLS is good for 1-2, and Lewis 1-2. The bench upgrades are probably good for 1/game as well. I’d argue the WR room adds 30-40 yards/game to next year’s passing. If you want to play along – how much do you think the WR upgrades add, in terms of catches or yards/game?
Better QB
Yes, it’s still Thorne. But there are several reasons to think he’ll play better, including 2nd year in the system, better coaching with BHF, no more rando swapping Robby in and out, and a better all-around surrounding cast. I’d say the first 3 are worth 10-15 yards/game (the last one is factored in elsewhere).
Better RBs
Same top 3 overall, but they’ll all be a year bigger, faster, and stronger. Let’s be conservative and give it 5-10 yards/game based on that.
Better TE room
Fairweather is back, and with the surrounding talent, he should get more opportunities for mismatches. Deal, Frazier, and Riley are all back too. Let’s say they as a group pick up one more catch/game, so maybe 10 yards/game additional.
Better OL
Last year all 5 OL were first year starters at AU. Three of them are back as returning starters, and we upgraded at one of the other two spots. Losing Britton is the only real impact, and the other 4 spots should be improved this Fall. I think it’s fair to say we’ll give up half a sack less and add 10 yards rushing/game from the OL.
Coaching improvement
There was a lot of talk about last year’s offense not watching enough film, WRs not understanding the reads, and conflict between BHF and Monty. This year, BHF has his coaches and is running the show. That has to result in improvement. I’d give it 20 yards/game.
Rolling all that up
If you take each of those areas and stack them:
WRs: +35 yards/game
QB: +10 yards/game
RBs: +5 yards/game
TEs: +10 yards/game
OL: +15 yards/game
Coaching: +20 yards/game
I’d total that up as roughly +90 yards/game, which would have put us 5th in the SEC last year. That would add about 8 pts/game, also putting us 5th in scoring.
Maybe you think that’s too optimistic. I’d be curious to see anyone else’s opinions on how much each of these areas might improve the offense.
