With one SEC game down and few days before we play again, now is a good time to look at how the SEC schedule sets up for us and the other teams which appear to be contenders. @MattAU05 and I were discussing this earlier and both agree the SEC slate couldn't set up much more favorably for us. KenPom only has us projected to lose 2 games, @bama and @ UT. Their system takes all the games' percentages into account so you typically end up with a couple of extra losses when factoring in the collective odds of all the games. They have our projected record at 14-4. For the TLDR crew, we're in great shape and projected to win the league by Kenpom by 2 games...
96 South Carolina W, 75-66 74 79% Away ×
29 Florida W, 75-67 71 76% Home ×
16 Alabama L, 76-75 74 46% Away ×
108 Mississippi W, 71-62 69 79% Away ×
214 Georgia W, 85-62 72 98% Home ×
10 Kentucky W, 75-71 72 63% Home ×
158 Missouri W, 76-63 71 89% Away ×
33 Oklahoma W, 73-64 70 79% Home
16 Alabama W, 79-73 74 69% Home ×
214 Georgia W, 82-65 72 93% Away ×
46 Arkansas W, 78-73 75 66% Away ×
63 Texas A&M W, 75-62 70 87% Home ×
71 Vanderbilt W, 75-62 69 88% Home ×
29 Florida W, 71-70 71 55% Away ×
108 Mississippi W, 74-59 69 92% Home ×
11 Tennessee L, 71-69 73 40% Away ×
6 Mississippi St. W, 70-68 68 59% Away ×
96 South Carolina W, 78-63 74 92% Home
The biggest thing that jumps out to me is the lack of a really tough stretch of back to back or more games that are toss ups or worse. Our toughest back to back games per their percentages are @UT and then @Miss State. Toughest road games are @bama and @UT. Arky looks bad right now, but I always assume they will be a tough out at their place. If it comes down the last game of the season, we have USCe at home again just as we did when we clinched our last regular season title. Obviously anything can happen, but right now we appear to be in an extremely good position.
Looking at the other contenders, bama has a few really tough stretches. They play us at home, @MSU, and LSU in a row in a few weeks. Then they have to play Baylor, play us again again on the road, and then UK. Then they get Ark, MSU and @UK in a row. They also have to finish the season at @LSU. KenPom has them going 12-6.
29 Florida L, 75-74 72 47% Away
158 Missouri W, 79-68 72 85% Away
8 Auburn W, 76-75 74 54% Home
36 Mississippi St. W, 73-72 69 52% Away
13 LSU W, 73-71 74 57% Home
158 Missouri W, 82-64 72 95% Home
214 Georgia W, 84-70 73 91% Away
1 Baylor L, 77-74 72 39% Home
8 Auburn L, 79-73 74 31% Away
10 Kentucky W, 77-76 72 55% Home
108 Mississippi W, 74-67 70 74% Away
46 Arkansas W, 84-75 75 79% Home
36 Mississippi St. W, 76-69 69 74% Home
10 Kentucky L, 79-74 72 32% Away
71 Vanderbilt W, 74-70 70 66% Away
96 South Carolina W, 81-68 74 89% Home
63 Texas A&M W, 77-67 70 82% Home
13 LSU L, 75-70 74 34% Away
LSU's schedule is absolutely brutal. KenPom has them projected for 12-6, but that seems generous given how tough their schedule is and that they already have an L.
10 Kentucky W, 71-68 72 59% Home ×
11 Tennessee W, 68-65 73 60% Home ×
29 Florida W, 68-67 72 52% Away ×
46 Arkansas W, 77-67 75 82% Home ×
16 Alabama L, 73-71 74 43% Away ×
11 Tennessee L, 68-65 73 37% Away ×
63 Texas A&M W, 71-60 70 85% Home ×
57 TCU W, 68-64 70 65% Away
108 Mississippi W, 71-56 70 91% Home ×
71 Vanderbilt W, 68-62 70 69% Away ×
63 Texas A&M W, 68-63 70 67% Away ×
36 Mississippi St. W, 70-62 68 77% Home ×
214 Georgia W, 81-59 72 98% Home ×
96 South Carolina W, 71-63 74 76% Away ×
10 Kentucky L, 71-67 72 36% Away ×
158 Missouri W, 76-57 71 96% Home ×
46 Arkansas W, 74-70 75 63% Away ×
16 Alabama W, 75-70 74 66% Home
UK has a more manageable schedule than LSU with no really tough stretches, but they have tougher road games than anyone else having to visit all of the other top contenders. KenPom also has them going 12-6.
13 LSU L, 71-68 72 41% Away ×
213 Georgia W, 85-63 70 98% Home ×
71 Vanderbilt W, 72-66 68 71% Away ×
11 Tennessee W, 72-69 71 63% Home ×
63 Texas A&M W, 72-66 68 68% Away ×
8 Auburn L, 75-71 72 37% Away ×
36 Mississippi St. W, 74-65 67 78% Home ×
4 Kansas L, 80-74 72 30% Away
71 Vanderbilt W, 75-62 68 87% Home ×
16 Alabama L, 77-76 72 45% Away ×
96 South Carolina W, 76-67 72 78% Away ×
29 Florida W, 75-68 70 75% Home ×
11 Tennessee L, 72-69 71 39% Away ×
16 Alabama W, 79-74 72 68% Home ×
13 LSU W, 71-68 72 64% Home ×
46 Arkansas W, 78-74 73 64% Away ×
108 Mississippi W, 75-60 68 91% Home ×
29 Florida W, 72-71 70 54% Away ×
Finally, you have UT among the chief contenders. I think they have the second most favorable remaining schedule to us so its a good thing they already dropped a game. They have to go to LSU and UK and then host LSU in the next 3 weeks. 3 losses by third week of January would make it tough for them to win the regular season, assuming someone ends up going 13-5 or better.
108 Mississippi W, 72-57 69 91% Home
13 LSU L, 68-65 73 40% Away
96 South Carolina W, 76-61 73 91% Home
10 Kentucky L, 72-69 71 37% Away
73 Vanderbilt W, 69-63 69 70% Away
13 LSU W, 68-65 73 63% Home
29 Florida W, 72-65 71 74% Home
17 Texas L, 63-61 65 43% Away
63 Texas A&M W, 72-61 69 85% Home
96 South Carolina W, 73-65 73 77% Away
36 Mississippi St. W, 68-66 68 57% Away
73 Vanderbilt W, 72-60 69 87% Home
10 Kentucky W, 72-69 71 61% Home
46 Arkansas W, 75-72 74 64% Away
157 Missouri W, 74-61 71 88% Away
8 Auburn W, 71-69 73 60% Home
213 Georgia W, 79-63 71 93% Away
Arkansas W, 79-68 74 83% Home
Overall, I think we have the most favorable slate and we're also the most complete and consistent team in the league based on everyone's play to this point. It's a long season and our guys are going to have to be ready to take everyone's best shot, starting next week in Columbia. Martin will have his guys fired up to try and get a marquee win over a top 10 team. The more we win, the more other teams will circle us on their schedules as the game that can be their signature win. I am confident we have the coaching staff and the roster to manage that sort of pressure and grind.
Projected overall KenPom standings:
Auburn 14-4
UT - 12-6
LSU - 12-6
UK- 12-6
bama - 12-6
UF - 10-8
MSU - 10-8
To compare KenPom to other metrics, ESPN has us as a slight favorite to win the league with a projected for 12.8 wins over UK at 12.7.
96 South Carolina W, 75-66 74 79% Away ×
29 Florida W, 75-67 71 76% Home ×
16 Alabama L, 76-75 74 46% Away ×
108 Mississippi W, 71-62 69 79% Away ×
214 Georgia W, 85-62 72 98% Home ×
10 Kentucky W, 75-71 72 63% Home ×
158 Missouri W, 76-63 71 89% Away ×
33 Oklahoma W, 73-64 70 79% Home
16 Alabama W, 79-73 74 69% Home ×
214 Georgia W, 82-65 72 93% Away ×
46 Arkansas W, 78-73 75 66% Away ×
63 Texas A&M W, 75-62 70 87% Home ×
71 Vanderbilt W, 75-62 69 88% Home ×
29 Florida W, 71-70 71 55% Away ×
108 Mississippi W, 74-59 69 92% Home ×
11 Tennessee L, 71-69 73 40% Away ×
6 Mississippi St. W, 70-68 68 59% Away ×
96 South Carolina W, 78-63 74 92% Home
The biggest thing that jumps out to me is the lack of a really tough stretch of back to back or more games that are toss ups or worse. Our toughest back to back games per their percentages are @UT and then @Miss State. Toughest road games are @bama and @UT. Arky looks bad right now, but I always assume they will be a tough out at their place. If it comes down the last game of the season, we have USCe at home again just as we did when we clinched our last regular season title. Obviously anything can happen, but right now we appear to be in an extremely good position.
Looking at the other contenders, bama has a few really tough stretches. They play us at home, @MSU, and LSU in a row in a few weeks. Then they have to play Baylor, play us again again on the road, and then UK. Then they get Ark, MSU and @UK in a row. They also have to finish the season at @LSU. KenPom has them going 12-6.
29 Florida L, 75-74 72 47% Away
158 Missouri W, 79-68 72 85% Away
8 Auburn W, 76-75 74 54% Home
36 Mississippi St. W, 73-72 69 52% Away
13 LSU W, 73-71 74 57% Home
158 Missouri W, 82-64 72 95% Home
214 Georgia W, 84-70 73 91% Away
1 Baylor L, 77-74 72 39% Home
8 Auburn L, 79-73 74 31% Away
10 Kentucky W, 77-76 72 55% Home
108 Mississippi W, 74-67 70 74% Away
46 Arkansas W, 84-75 75 79% Home
36 Mississippi St. W, 76-69 69 74% Home
10 Kentucky L, 79-74 72 32% Away
71 Vanderbilt W, 74-70 70 66% Away
96 South Carolina W, 81-68 74 89% Home
63 Texas A&M W, 77-67 70 82% Home
13 LSU L, 75-70 74 34% Away
LSU's schedule is absolutely brutal. KenPom has them projected for 12-6, but that seems generous given how tough their schedule is and that they already have an L.
10 Kentucky W, 71-68 72 59% Home ×
11 Tennessee W, 68-65 73 60% Home ×
29 Florida W, 68-67 72 52% Away ×
46 Arkansas W, 77-67 75 82% Home ×
16 Alabama L, 73-71 74 43% Away ×
11 Tennessee L, 68-65 73 37% Away ×
63 Texas A&M W, 71-60 70 85% Home ×
57 TCU W, 68-64 70 65% Away
108 Mississippi W, 71-56 70 91% Home ×
71 Vanderbilt W, 68-62 70 69% Away ×
63 Texas A&M W, 68-63 70 67% Away ×
36 Mississippi St. W, 70-62 68 77% Home ×
214 Georgia W, 81-59 72 98% Home ×
96 South Carolina W, 71-63 74 76% Away ×
10 Kentucky L, 71-67 72 36% Away ×
158 Missouri W, 76-57 71 96% Home ×
46 Arkansas W, 74-70 75 63% Away ×
16 Alabama W, 75-70 74 66% Home
UK has a more manageable schedule than LSU with no really tough stretches, but they have tougher road games than anyone else having to visit all of the other top contenders. KenPom also has them going 12-6.
13 LSU L, 71-68 72 41% Away ×
213 Georgia W, 85-63 70 98% Home ×
71 Vanderbilt W, 72-66 68 71% Away ×
11 Tennessee W, 72-69 71 63% Home ×
63 Texas A&M W, 72-66 68 68% Away ×
8 Auburn L, 75-71 72 37% Away ×
36 Mississippi St. W, 74-65 67 78% Home ×
4 Kansas L, 80-74 72 30% Away
71 Vanderbilt W, 75-62 68 87% Home ×
16 Alabama L, 77-76 72 45% Away ×
96 South Carolina W, 76-67 72 78% Away ×
29 Florida W, 75-68 70 75% Home ×
11 Tennessee L, 72-69 71 39% Away ×
16 Alabama W, 79-74 72 68% Home ×
13 LSU W, 71-68 72 64% Home ×
46 Arkansas W, 78-74 73 64% Away ×
108 Mississippi W, 75-60 68 91% Home ×
29 Florida W, 72-71 70 54% Away ×
Finally, you have UT among the chief contenders. I think they have the second most favorable remaining schedule to us so its a good thing they already dropped a game. They have to go to LSU and UK and then host LSU in the next 3 weeks. 3 losses by third week of January would make it tough for them to win the regular season, assuming someone ends up going 13-5 or better.
108 Mississippi W, 72-57 69 91% Home
13 LSU L, 68-65 73 40% Away
96 South Carolina W, 76-61 73 91% Home
10 Kentucky L, 72-69 71 37% Away
73 Vanderbilt W, 69-63 69 70% Away
13 LSU W, 68-65 73 63% Home
29 Florida W, 72-65 71 74% Home
17 Texas L, 63-61 65 43% Away
63 Texas A&M W, 72-61 69 85% Home
96 South Carolina W, 73-65 73 77% Away
36 Mississippi St. W, 68-66 68 57% Away
73 Vanderbilt W, 72-60 69 87% Home
10 Kentucky W, 72-69 71 61% Home
46 Arkansas W, 75-72 74 64% Away
157 Missouri W, 74-61 71 88% Away
8 Auburn W, 71-69 73 60% Home
213 Georgia W, 79-63 71 93% Away
Arkansas W, 79-68 74 83% Home
Overall, I think we have the most favorable slate and we're also the most complete and consistent team in the league based on everyone's play to this point. It's a long season and our guys are going to have to be ready to take everyone's best shot, starting next week in Columbia. Martin will have his guys fired up to try and get a marquee win over a top 10 team. The more we win, the more other teams will circle us on their schedules as the game that can be their signature win. I am confident we have the coaching staff and the roster to manage that sort of pressure and grind.
Projected overall KenPom standings:
Auburn 14-4
UT - 12-6
LSU - 12-6
UK- 12-6
bama - 12-6
UF - 10-8
MSU - 10-8
To compare KenPom to other metrics, ESPN has us as a slight favorite to win the league with a projected for 12.8 wins over UK at 12.7.
