The most obvious variable in determining how successful AU will be this fall is the effectiveness of QB Peyton Thorne, below are the three scenarios I see as possbile:
1) What if Thorne lights it up?? A huge part of last season's lack of success was an inability of the primary receivers to execute option routes in the RPO game. Thornes would see what the defense gave him pre-snap, make his determination, and then often times not have the receiver in the right place, thus it looked like he just ate a sack, panicked, or put the ball in the wrong place. His best threat, Rivaldo in the seam, was often forced to play outside bc he was the only target capable of winning one on one battles. Of this group of receivers executes a more streamlined offense better, and doesn't put Thorne in those situations, this offense is better. If the drop rate is cut by a reasonable 30-50% he throws for another 500-700 yards. That said, if PT has a season where he throws for 2900-3200 yds, 25-30 TDs, and completes 63-67% of his passes, this team becomes a threat to win 10 games.
2) What if Thorne is marginal. Lets say the receivers are slightly better, the run game is strong, and Thorne is a 2400-2700 yard QB, has 20-24 TDs, and 10-12 INTs. Auburn wouldnt likely be a threat to win any of their 3 biggest games (UGA, bama, Mizzou). But could still win the ones they are supposed to and 1 to 3 of the 50/50 games (TAM, UK, OK), and be a 7-8 win team.
3) What if Thorne is bad (or gets injured) and an in season QB battle/rotation has to happen? This is obviously worst case scenario. If Thorne proves to be indept, I think you see a two QB system with Sam Jackson and Hank Brown. Walker White has the talent, but needs atleast a red shirt year to get his processing up to speed working against collegiate defensive speed and tight windows before he can win an SEC game for the Tigers (IMO). If this happened AU would have to play above expectations on defense, and be elite on the ground to break the 6 win mark and be a bowl eligible team.
My big ole orange and blue heart truly believes #1 is possible, my brain tells me 2 is probable, and my oh s**t AU fan PTSD won't let me rule out number 3. It's been a fun and very productive off season for the Tigers. I love the staff, I love the energy, and I hope like hell to see it translate into something that will diminish the toilet paper supply in Lee County.
1) What if Thorne lights it up?? A huge part of last season's lack of success was an inability of the primary receivers to execute option routes in the RPO game. Thornes would see what the defense gave him pre-snap, make his determination, and then often times not have the receiver in the right place, thus it looked like he just ate a sack, panicked, or put the ball in the wrong place. His best threat, Rivaldo in the seam, was often forced to play outside bc he was the only target capable of winning one on one battles. Of this group of receivers executes a more streamlined offense better, and doesn't put Thorne in those situations, this offense is better. If the drop rate is cut by a reasonable 30-50% he throws for another 500-700 yards. That said, if PT has a season where he throws for 2900-3200 yds, 25-30 TDs, and completes 63-67% of his passes, this team becomes a threat to win 10 games.
2) What if Thorne is marginal. Lets say the receivers are slightly better, the run game is strong, and Thorne is a 2400-2700 yard QB, has 20-24 TDs, and 10-12 INTs. Auburn wouldnt likely be a threat to win any of their 3 biggest games (UGA, bama, Mizzou). But could still win the ones they are supposed to and 1 to 3 of the 50/50 games (TAM, UK, OK), and be a 7-8 win team.
3) What if Thorne is bad (or gets injured) and an in season QB battle/rotation has to happen? This is obviously worst case scenario. If Thorne proves to be indept, I think you see a two QB system with Sam Jackson and Hank Brown. Walker White has the talent, but needs atleast a red shirt year to get his processing up to speed working against collegiate defensive speed and tight windows before he can win an SEC game for the Tigers (IMO). If this happened AU would have to play above expectations on defense, and be elite on the ground to break the 6 win mark and be a bowl eligible team.
My big ole orange and blue heart truly believes #1 is possible, my brain tells me 2 is probable, and my oh s**t AU fan PTSD won't let me rule out number 3. It's been a fun and very productive off season for the Tigers. I love the staff, I love the energy, and I hope like hell to see it translate into something that will diminish the toilet paper supply in Lee County.
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