Between family holiday festivities and coaching wrestling tournaments, I missed getting the draft into our illustrious commodore @Jay G. Tate in a timely manner, my sincerest apologies. So for the few of you that think the piece is worth reading I am posting this week's Know the Enemy ITT. Hope you all had a Merry Christmas and wishing you all a Happy New Year!
Know the Enemy: Houston
The Birmingham Bowl is not at all where an Auburn team expects nor wants to land to finish the season, albeit better than sitting at home. While an eleven-and-two Houston team from the AAC will cherish the chance to knock off a prominent SEC name brand. Dana Holgorsen brings the same kind of offense into the game, from the same coaching tree, that Mike Leach torched Auburn with earlier this season. The Cougars aren’t one-dimensional, though. They lead the nation in thid down defense, are top five in the country in sacks, have the 13th ranked rush defense, and have a secondary that has snatched away fourteen interceptions this season.
Houston quarterback Clayton Tune is one of the nation’s most underrated passers and is a very efficient distributor of the football. Tune has thrown 28 touchdowns to only nine interceptions. Tune also has the athleticism to evade pressure within the pocket, while keeping his eyes downfield and allowing receivers to run themselves open.
Houston has a game-breaker at receiver in Nathaniel Dell. Dell has 80 receptions or over 1,100 yards. He moves around the formation sets and uses his elite quickness and route running skills to find yardage in the middle of the field. Flex tight end Christian Trahan is the next most frequently targeted player and is an effective short to medium range receiver underneath deeper routes that clear out the safeties.
Freshman Alton McKaskill is a big back with quick feet and good vision. He’s a super patient runner that keeps moving forward while waiting for holes to open, making him an ideal inside zone runner. Ta’Zhawn Henry is a jitterbug change of pace back that dances running lanes open and creates in space after catching swing passes.
The Houston offensive line is built to do two things, zone block aggressively in the run game, and get deep vertical sets in pass protection that absorb pressure like a sponge. The line has several players that received all-conference honors, but they are anchored by their guard tandem of red shirt senior Keenan Murphy and Oklahoma transfer (and Montgomery, AL native) Tank Jenkins.
The Houston defensive front is a hybrid 4-2-5/3-3-5 playing with 3 down linemen and a standing or loose edge in a five technique to one side. Logan Hall was one of the best players in college football this season for the Cougars. He would start for any team in the SEC and star, but he has opted out of the bowl to begin preparing for the NFL combine. Instead, they will have to rely on Edge players David Anenih and Logan Parish (who doubles as the team’s fullback) to maintain their disruption up front.
Will linebacker Deontay Anderson is a transfer from Ole Miss that plays very well in space and can be an effective blitzer. He provides an impact level of mobility at the second level of defense. Mike linebacker Donovan Mutan is a sound tackler with good mobility. He tracks the ball well and is very effective at tackling running backs and receivers after making catches on short passes.
As a football fan, not getting to see Marcus Jones play in this game is disappointing. The defensive back is an absolute elite cover corner with great ball skills, and one of the nation’s best special-teams players. He has multiple kick-off and punt returns for touchdowns. Jones won the Paul Hornung award given to college football’s most versatile player. In his absence Houston must lean on Damarion Williams to lead the secondary. Williams is an all-conference caliber player himself, with tremendous length and speed to cover. Free safety Gervarrius Owens is an excellent football player as well. Owens was First Team All-AAC. He has the speed, range, and football intelligence needed to excel as a deep zone safety. He diagnoses quickly, comes out of his drop, and reacts to the football as good as any player the Tigers have seen all season.
Marcus Jones was a game changer for the Cougars as a returner. Without him, I would speculate that Dell gets the first chance to make a play on special teams. Dalton Witherspoon has been very inconsistent in place kicking duties this season but has connected on a field goal from 51 yards out.
Critical Matchups:
- Jaylin Simpson vs Nathaniel Dell: With Roger McCreary no longer on the field for the Tigers, the next man up will have to man up on critical passing downs. Simpson has shown tons of promise, and this will be his chance to show he can be depended on.
- Jalil Irvin vs NT Chidozie Nwankwo: Irving gets a tough task in his first start. I’m not sure he can do much less than Brahm’s has done this season. Nwankwo is a fire plug. While short in stature, he’s extremely strong and mobile from the nose tackle position. He often gets immediate penetration and forces run plays to redirect deep in the backfield resulting in tackles for a loss. Irvin will have to do a good job of moving laterally with his initial steps, then driving for movement once engaged.
-Dana Holgorsen vs Derrick Mason: The last time AU saw an Air Raid offense they were roasted like chickens on the sun for the last 2.5 quarters of the game. Tune can be every bit as good as Will Rogers and Holgorsen is one of Leach’s padawans. Auburn will need to change its tune, pressure on early downs, then play off on long yardage downs and rally to the football, and play with much more intelligent leverage in man coverage situations.
Big Game Crystal Ball Predictions:
* Derrick Hall- Houston's pass protection isn’t great. Their tackles certainly aren’t on the level of Alabama’s, and last time we saw hall he was picking putting the Heisman Trophy winner in the grass with regularity. Hall’s rush presence could mean all the difference in the game.
* Nathaniel Dell-Great receiver vs a defense without their best defensive back, in a scheme that is receiver friendly...not a good mixture for Auburn, but a great mix for Dell to have a big day.
* Tank Bigsby-In Houston’s two losses their opponents committed to running the ball more than 25 times per game. Auburn knows that. Bigsby will get his normal touches, as well as Shivers’s third down reps. I would imagine he will play an emotional game, since recommitting himself to the team and the staff, and I’d imagine Harsin is going to feed bell-cow with more frequency than we saw from Mike Bobo all season.
**Prediction: This one is tough. If Logan Hall and Marcus Jones were playing, I could comfortably pick Houston. If McCreary and McClain were playing, I could comfortably pick Auburn. This will be way more of a defensive battle than the surface value suggests. I don’t think Auburn can lean on TJ Finley at all to win it as a passer, so they will have to work behind a new look offensive line to establish a run game. That hasn’t worked well all season. However, I think there are three wild cards at play. Houston won’t have a grasp of what a Harsin-called offense will look like, Harsin could use Davis at quarterback to create more opportunities in the QB run-game, and Auburn’s pass rush looked elite last time out. Momentum is everything in college football, all the time. Auburn needs to build off a strong recruiting finish with a win, to continue their strong recruiting throughout the off-season, and further encourage players, fans, and boosters to buy into Harsin’s new culture. I don’t think it will be pretty, but I think it will get done. In a game that won’t get the respect it deserves, AU downs a top 20 team en route to getting Harsin his first AU bowl win. Auburn 23-Houston 20
Know the Enemy: Houston
The Birmingham Bowl is not at all where an Auburn team expects nor wants to land to finish the season, albeit better than sitting at home. While an eleven-and-two Houston team from the AAC will cherish the chance to knock off a prominent SEC name brand. Dana Holgorsen brings the same kind of offense into the game, from the same coaching tree, that Mike Leach torched Auburn with earlier this season. The Cougars aren’t one-dimensional, though. They lead the nation in thid down defense, are top five in the country in sacks, have the 13th ranked rush defense, and have a secondary that has snatched away fourteen interceptions this season.
Houston quarterback Clayton Tune is one of the nation’s most underrated passers and is a very efficient distributor of the football. Tune has thrown 28 touchdowns to only nine interceptions. Tune also has the athleticism to evade pressure within the pocket, while keeping his eyes downfield and allowing receivers to run themselves open.
Houston has a game-breaker at receiver in Nathaniel Dell. Dell has 80 receptions or over 1,100 yards. He moves around the formation sets and uses his elite quickness and route running skills to find yardage in the middle of the field. Flex tight end Christian Trahan is the next most frequently targeted player and is an effective short to medium range receiver underneath deeper routes that clear out the safeties.
Freshman Alton McKaskill is a big back with quick feet and good vision. He’s a super patient runner that keeps moving forward while waiting for holes to open, making him an ideal inside zone runner. Ta’Zhawn Henry is a jitterbug change of pace back that dances running lanes open and creates in space after catching swing passes.
The Houston offensive line is built to do two things, zone block aggressively in the run game, and get deep vertical sets in pass protection that absorb pressure like a sponge. The line has several players that received all-conference honors, but they are anchored by their guard tandem of red shirt senior Keenan Murphy and Oklahoma transfer (and Montgomery, AL native) Tank Jenkins.
The Houston defensive front is a hybrid 4-2-5/3-3-5 playing with 3 down linemen and a standing or loose edge in a five technique to one side. Logan Hall was one of the best players in college football this season for the Cougars. He would start for any team in the SEC and star, but he has opted out of the bowl to begin preparing for the NFL combine. Instead, they will have to rely on Edge players David Anenih and Logan Parish (who doubles as the team’s fullback) to maintain their disruption up front.
Will linebacker Deontay Anderson is a transfer from Ole Miss that plays very well in space and can be an effective blitzer. He provides an impact level of mobility at the second level of defense. Mike linebacker Donovan Mutan is a sound tackler with good mobility. He tracks the ball well and is very effective at tackling running backs and receivers after making catches on short passes.
As a football fan, not getting to see Marcus Jones play in this game is disappointing. The defensive back is an absolute elite cover corner with great ball skills, and one of the nation’s best special-teams players. He has multiple kick-off and punt returns for touchdowns. Jones won the Paul Hornung award given to college football’s most versatile player. In his absence Houston must lean on Damarion Williams to lead the secondary. Williams is an all-conference caliber player himself, with tremendous length and speed to cover. Free safety Gervarrius Owens is an excellent football player as well. Owens was First Team All-AAC. He has the speed, range, and football intelligence needed to excel as a deep zone safety. He diagnoses quickly, comes out of his drop, and reacts to the football as good as any player the Tigers have seen all season.
Marcus Jones was a game changer for the Cougars as a returner. Without him, I would speculate that Dell gets the first chance to make a play on special teams. Dalton Witherspoon has been very inconsistent in place kicking duties this season but has connected on a field goal from 51 yards out.
Critical Matchups:
- Jaylin Simpson vs Nathaniel Dell: With Roger McCreary no longer on the field for the Tigers, the next man up will have to man up on critical passing downs. Simpson has shown tons of promise, and this will be his chance to show he can be depended on.
- Jalil Irvin vs NT Chidozie Nwankwo: Irving gets a tough task in his first start. I’m not sure he can do much less than Brahm’s has done this season. Nwankwo is a fire plug. While short in stature, he’s extremely strong and mobile from the nose tackle position. He often gets immediate penetration and forces run plays to redirect deep in the backfield resulting in tackles for a loss. Irvin will have to do a good job of moving laterally with his initial steps, then driving for movement once engaged.
-Dana Holgorsen vs Derrick Mason: The last time AU saw an Air Raid offense they were roasted like chickens on the sun for the last 2.5 quarters of the game. Tune can be every bit as good as Will Rogers and Holgorsen is one of Leach’s padawans. Auburn will need to change its tune, pressure on early downs, then play off on long yardage downs and rally to the football, and play with much more intelligent leverage in man coverage situations.
Big Game Crystal Ball Predictions:
* Derrick Hall- Houston's pass protection isn’t great. Their tackles certainly aren’t on the level of Alabama’s, and last time we saw hall he was picking putting the Heisman Trophy winner in the grass with regularity. Hall’s rush presence could mean all the difference in the game.
* Nathaniel Dell-Great receiver vs a defense without their best defensive back, in a scheme that is receiver friendly...not a good mixture for Auburn, but a great mix for Dell to have a big day.
* Tank Bigsby-In Houston’s two losses their opponents committed to running the ball more than 25 times per game. Auburn knows that. Bigsby will get his normal touches, as well as Shivers’s third down reps. I would imagine he will play an emotional game, since recommitting himself to the team and the staff, and I’d imagine Harsin is going to feed bell-cow with more frequency than we saw from Mike Bobo all season.
**Prediction: This one is tough. If Logan Hall and Marcus Jones were playing, I could comfortably pick Houston. If McCreary and McClain were playing, I could comfortably pick Auburn. This will be way more of a defensive battle than the surface value suggests. I don’t think Auburn can lean on TJ Finley at all to win it as a passer, so they will have to work behind a new look offensive line to establish a run game. That hasn’t worked well all season. However, I think there are three wild cards at play. Houston won’t have a grasp of what a Harsin-called offense will look like, Harsin could use Davis at quarterback to create more opportunities in the QB run-game, and Auburn’s pass rush looked elite last time out. Momentum is everything in college football, all the time. Auburn needs to build off a strong recruiting finish with a win, to continue their strong recruiting throughout the off-season, and further encourage players, fans, and boosters to buy into Harsin’s new culture. I don’t think it will be pretty, but I think it will get done. In a game that won’t get the respect it deserves, AU downs a top 20 team en route to getting Harsin his first AU bowl win. Auburn 23-Houston 20
