The still undefeated Auburn Tigers will return to action tonight at home against the Vanderbilt Commodores. With the students back in town following their Christmas break, I'd expect a packed and loud jungle for tipoff tonight. First time head coach Jerry Stackhouse will be in for treat when his team takes the floor inside Auburn Arena, and will come head to head with a now top 5 Auburn team who doesn't look to be slowing down coming off their best win of the season. Vanderbilt brings with it the leading scorer in the conference, and a team of young, but talented players.
Vanderbilt Commodores
8-5 (0-0)
SEC Conference
#135 Kenpom
#119 Realtime RPI
#127 NET Rankings
Key Team Statistics:
79.2 Points per game (43rd nationally)
34.8 Rebounds per game (288th nationally)
14.2 Assists per game (153rd nationally)
72.6 Points allowed (267th nationally)
Key Wins: vs. Buffalo, vs. Davidson
Key Losses: @Richmond, vs. Tulsa, vs. Loyola Chicago
The Team:
First time head coach Jerry Stackhouse (8-5) brings an inexperienced team to Auburn tonight to take on the #5 ranked Auburn Tigers. Stackhouse's rotation consists of 8 guys, 5 of which are Freshman or Sophomores. This Vandy team is a step in the right direction following an 0-18 conference record in the 2018-2019 season. It's a scrappy team with young talent who will have a chance to show that they can play big time ball in a loud arena against a more talented team. They will run the floor and look to shoot from outside and a step inside the three line mainly due to their size deficiency. Vandy will be without their senior leader at Center for the foreseeable future. Clevon Brown has already missed five games and remains the team's rebounding leader. He injured his knee against Loyola and is out indefinitely. Even with a healthy Brown, this team struggled to rebound. That trend has continued and was a key reason Vandy lost their last game to SMU in overtime. In that game they were out-rebounded 41-29 and SMU outscored Vandy 44-20 in the paint.
The SEC leading scorer will start for the Commodores tonight at PF. Aaron Nesmith (6'6, 213) has been unstoppable on the scoring end of the floor so far this season. He currently averages 23.4 points a game while shooting 51% from the field as well as from outside. He's a prolific scorer that can hurt you from anywhere on the court at any given time. He's also an excellent free throw shooter and rebounder. He will look to follow shots and get in space behind the defense to clean up missed shots.
Starting at PG is former NBA player Scottie Pippen's son. Scotty Pippen Jr. (6'1, 170) has been playing excellent basketball the last handful of games for Vandy. In the last five games he's averaging 15 points and 5 assists. He plays within himself for a freshman and knows his limits. He'll look to get the ball to Nesmith first and foremost, but when the opportunity presents itself he won't be afraid to drive or get off an open look. Vandy has yet to play a defense as aggressive as Auburn's, so it'll be interesting to watch how Pippen Jr. handles the pressure that Auburn's guards are so good at putting on ball handlers.
As stated above, Vanderbilt has been at a size disadvantage since Clevon Brown went down with his knee injury. In his place in the starting rotation is another freshman, Dylan Disu (6'9, 220) has played like a freshman for the most part so far this season. He's averaging 5 points and 5 boards, but isn't exactly a physical presence down low. He won't bang with bigger forwards to make buckets in the paint, and he hasn't yet been a huge presence on the rebounding side either. Auburn's tandem of Wiley and McLemore should have a good opportunity to control the game in the paint. Also, Disu has 1 career block through 13 games this season. Auburn's guards will have plenty of chances to cut and drive into the basket to take advantage of Vanderbilt's lack of a rim protector.
Rounding out the starting lineup is the 2-3 tandem of freshman guard Jordan Wright (6'5, 226) and Jr. guard Maxwell Evans (6'2, 190). Wright has been the least effective starter this season, averaging 3.4 points and 1.5 rebounds a game. He's also shooting 18% from outside. He'll be a role player that will actually see far less minutes than their six man. Evans has been a little more efficient, scoring 7.1 points and bringing down 3 boards. He's a 46% shooter from the field and 38% from three.
Stackhouse's ace in the hole so to speak may be sixth man Saben Lee. Lee (6'2, 183) has not started a game so far this season, but usually plays up to thirty minutes a contest. So far this season he is the team's second leading scorer with 15.8 points and also dishes out a team high 5.5 assists a night. He's been very effective in his role, think Samir from last season, and will look to keep that up tonight against Auburn. He's currently shooting 50% from the floor and is most efficient from inside the three point line. He can drive and dish as well as anyone, and Auburn will have to do a great job of not losing position on Lee when he's in the game.
Things to Watch:
Vandy is small and has very little depth down low. Disu's backup is 6'10, but is prone to foul trouble. Neither of Vandy's bigs are enforcer type posts, and Auburn will absolutely look to take advantage of that. Auburn's guards are excellent at getting to the bucket on drives, but haven't had great success finishing among the tall trees. I don't expect that to be as much of a problem tonight, and Auburn will look to beat Vandy in the paint, while hopefully sharpening up their three ball shooting to prep for Georgia's arrival on Saturday.
Aaron Nesmith has not been guarded by anyone as talented as Isaac Okoro so far this season. I'll talk about this a little more in a minute.
Auburn's key to winning this game and covering the spread will come from their ability to rebound and make good decisions with the ball on offense. I wouldn't be surprised to see Vandy try and zone Auburn as much as they can get away with it. Auburn must adjust and continue to play through Okoro in the high post offense. If Auburn can make good inlet passes to Okoro at the top of the key, and also feed Austin Wiley and Ant effectively, Auburn should have a great chance to get on top early, and put this game away well before the end of regulation.
ESPN gives Auburn a 93.9% chance to win this game.
Auburn is currently a 14.5 point favorite.
Key Matchup:
Issac Okoro vs. Aaron Nesmith
This battle basically speaks for itself. SEC leading scorer vs. arguably the best freshman defender in the conference. What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object? We very well may find out tonight. Nesmith will get his, but I expect Okoro to frustrate him on D more than Nesmith will care for. I won't be surprised to see Isaac best Nesmith on the scoring chart tonight.
Prediction:
Auburn. All day. Vanderbilt has not beaten a ranked opponent on the road since January of 2017. That streak continues. Auburn is more talented, more experienced, and better coached than Vanderbilt. Auburn will be ready to go in this game, and The Jungle will be rocking. Auburn comes out of this one and will face Georgia as an undefeated program.
Auburn - 86
Vanderbilt - 69
Game Time:
8:00 on the SEC Network
