One of four remaining undefeated teams in the country will look to keep the streak alive tonight. Auburn comes into this game with a 9-0 record and currently #1 in the Realtime RPI. Auburn is coming off a rusty performance against a scrappy Saint Louis team, and will look to regain top form against a quality power five opponent. North Carolina State got the better of the Tigers last year in Raleigh, but the Tigers get a chance for redemption on their home court tonight.
North Carolina State Wolfpack
8-2 (1-1)
5th in ACC
#36 Kenpom Rankings
#122 Realtime RPI
#53 NET Ranking
Key Team Statistics:
82.5 Points per game (21st nationally)
14.3 Assists per game (135th nationally)
34.3 Rebounds per game (307th nationally)
70.6 Points allowed per game (220th nationally)
Key Losses: Georgia Tech, Memphis (without James Wiseman)
Key Victories: Wisconsin, @wake Forest, @UNCG
The Team:
Kevin Keatts (53-26) is in his third season as the head coach for NC State. This season Keatts has one of his deepest teams, playing as many as 11 guys a game, but having eight who average at least double digit minutes a contest. NC State has a plethora of talented and experienced guards who are excellent at running the floor and getting buckets in transition, but you also can't sleep on their ability to spot up and shoot from anywhere once the ball crosses half court.
Synergy Sports ranks NC State's offense as "Excellent" in 8 of the 18 total categories. In transition, the Wolfpack have 148 points on 131 possessions, good for the 86th percentile. In half court offense they have 674 points on 705 possessions which equates to 0.956 points per possession which ranks in the 92nd percentile. Their key offensive plays according to Synergy are Spot Up shooting, Pick and Roll ball handler, and of course Transition offense. Spot Up shooting has made up almost 25% of their total offense. 216 points on 194 possessions so far this season. That ranks in the 97th percentile in college basketball.
Markell Johnson (6'1, 175) is a senior Point Guard who has faced Bruce Pearl's team before with great success. Last year against the Tigers in Raleigh, Johnson accounted for twenty seven points in his team's victory. He's currently averaging 13 points per game and 6.2 assists per game. He has experience in big time games, and it is safe to assume he won't be too worried about the environment of Auburn Arena negatively affecting his play. According to Synergy Sports, Johnson makes most teams pay as the primary ball handler coming off pick and rolls, as well as in iso situations. It will be up to J'von and the rest of the guards to do an excellent job of getting over screens and not going underneath and giving the Wolfpack guards space for open shots.
CJ Bryce (6'5, 210) is the team's leading scorer from the 2 or 3 position depending on rotations. He's averaging 15.9 points per game, and is also the team's leading rebounder with 6.5 boards a game. He's currently shooting 54% from the field and knocking down 41% of his three point attempts. Bryce and Johnson are also very serviceable from the charity stripe hitting 80% and 71% respectively. Braxton Beverly (6'0, 180) is a junior shooting guard who will start alongside Bryce. Beverly is one of the best outside shooters on the team connecting on 45.7% of his three attempts, which is actually higher than his overall field goal percentage of 45.6%. Splitting hairs there for sure, but still impressive.
The starting forwards have changed depending on opponent, but in their last contest it was Pat Andree (6'8, 220) at the 4, and the freshman Manny Bates (6'11, 230) at C. Andree had his best game of the season against UNCG scoring 15 and connecting on 62.5% of his 3 attempts. He's also a prolific free throw shooter hitting 90% of his chances through 10 games. Bates is averaging the least amount of points for all starters, but has been efficient none the less. He's shooting 58.3% from the field, and will stay and play close to the basket. Andree will step out and is a threat from anywhere. His game will closely mirror Danjel's.
Coach Keatts also gets very good production out of his top three bench players. Top reserve is Devon Daniels (6'5, 205). A junior guard who is averaging 11.4 points per game and 3.7 boards. Daniels is one the team's most efficient players in transition as well. When he gets the ball running the floor he averages 1.46 points per possession which is in the 94th percentile. The main reserves are rounded out by two forwards in Jericole Hellems (6'7, 205) and DJ Funderburk (6'10, 225). Both guys are averaging over ten points per game.
Things to Watch:
The Wolfpack are a deep team with shooters at just about every position. All signs point to this being a fast paced game with both teams attempting to wear down the other. That could lead to sloppy play for one or both teams. NC State was excellent at turning Auburn over last year, and also slowing down the Tigers by full court pressing. If NC State chooses to pressure the Auburn ball handlers, then the Tigers must handle the pressure better than they have so far this season. Auburn hasn't played a team that sold out on face guarding from the inbound since USA, and at that time J'von did not handle the pressure well. He will be key for the Tigers breaking the press and settling down to get into set plays in the half court.
NC State is currently one of the worst rebounding teams in the country. This bodes well for Auburn seeing as the Tigers have continued to do well limiting second chance options on the scoring end and preventing teams from picking up extra possessions. Auburn will need to win the rebounding battle and convert some fast breaks before NC State can set up their pressure in order to take control of this game.
As stated above, this is a team full of shooters who make their money off driving into the lane and dishing to shooters relocating around the perimeter. Auburn must do a good job of getting over screens and being careful not to lose their man when hedging to help on the attacking guard. Auburn's bigs also need to do a good job of staying out foul trouble, seeing as NC State enlists some of the biggest forwards AU will have faced this season. Austin Wiley needs to continue to play smart defensive basketball and be in position to affect shots in the post. NC State will do an excellent job of finding open shooters if Auburn is undisciplined when it comes to guarding the pick and roll ball handler.
Auburn is a 7.5 point favorite and ESPN gives AU a 71.8% chance to win.
Key Matchup:
Markell Johnson v. J'von McCormick
Johnson got the best of Auburn last year. He's going to attack the basket and he's going to distribute to his open shooters. Auburn, and specifically J'von are going to have to be disciplined on defense and do a great job of getting over screens and stepping out on their shooters. Johnson will almost assuredly be the guy who is charged with full court pressuring J'von or Samir, so Auburn's PG and defacto backup PG will have to be excellent at controlling tempo and making smart passes. This should be an excellent matchup to watch between two backcourts that are slap full of experienced leaders at PG/SG. If J'von continues to play at a high level, I believe Auburn will go as far as he takes them. Tonight will be another good chance to prove he can be the guy that Jared Harper was for Auburn last season.
Prediction:
This game will be close. NC State has been solid ATS this season. They are a team of excellent shooters, but Auburn has been a team that has shown they can take over games with their lockdown defense. I believe Auburn will have a lot of good looks from outside, but if they chose to run the offense through Austin when he's on the floor then AU must make smarter decisions about when to make interior passes. They have been poor so far this season at putting Austin in good positions under the basket. However, when Austin does receive a good pass in position he has to do a better job of finishing at a higher percentage. I think J'von will continue his good play, and Samir will have a good shooting night on the home court. It would also be nice to see Danjel be more aggressive attacking the basket, but after this long that may just be wishful thinking. The Wolfpack's poor rebounding will be their downfall. I think Auburn wins, but don't be surprised if this game comes down to the wire.
Auburn - 78
NC State - 75
Game Time:
8:00 CT on ESPN2
As always, S/O to @Jay G. Tate for providing Synergy Data
