The #8 Auburn Tigers are now one of two undefeated teams in all of college basketball. They will look to remain in the ranks of the unbeaten when they take on the best team they will have faced to date in the Mississippi State Bulldogs on their home floor. Now that football season has officially come to an end for Auburn, the fanbase can turn their attention solely to the team that has a very positive outlook for the new decade. This is the start of what will be a very entertaining SEC slate for the Tigers. Starting off 1-0 in conference will go a long way in giving this team the confidence they need to dominate the SEC as they did their non conference schedule.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
9-3 (0-0)
SEC Conference
#48 Kenpom
#60 Realtime RPI
#70 NET Rankings
Key Team Statistics:
73.7 points per game (149th nationally)
37.3 Rebounds per game (162nd nationally)
14.8 Assists per game (109th nationally)
63.8 points allowed (70th nationally)
Key Wins: vs. Kansas State, vs. Tulane
Key Losses: vs. Villanova, vs. La Tech, vs. NMSU
The Team:
Ben Howland is possibly putting his largest roster ever on the court this season. This is a team of mammoth sized men who are excellent at what you'd expect them to be excellent at, rebounding and cleaning up around the glass for second chance points. Howland (87-59) deploys a 9 man rotation this season, with all four reserves getting over 10 minutes a game. This game is going to be different than any game we've watched so far this season, seeing as Auburn will be facing two starters for State that are 6'10+. Not to mention three guards at 6'6+ counting the key reserves for Howland's squad. Auburn will need to play exceptional defense and fight to maintain position in the paint when shots go up in order to limit State's second chances around the bucket.
Nick Weatherspoon (6'2, 185) is two games removed from his 10 game suspension and is so far averaging 9.0 points/ 2.0 rebounds/ 2.0 assists per game. He's shooting 46% from the field and has yet to take a 3 point shot this season. They were expecting him to be a bit rusty once he was allowed to hit the floor again, but I'd expect his numbers to steadily climb as he plays more games and gets back in his groove. He's an excellent guard who has plenty of experience in big time SEC games, and he will be a leader for this team as they look to knock off Auburn on their floor tonight.
The other leader for the bulldogs is senior guard Tyson Carter (6'4, 175). In Weatherspoon's absence Carter has been the go to guard for State. He's currently averaging a team high tying 15.4 points per game and dishing out 4.2 assists while only turning the ball o er 2.3 times a contest. He's shooting 32% from outside and is a very efficient free throw shooter at 82%. If this game comes down to fouls, Auburn needs to keep the ball out of Carter's hands late.
Rounding out the backcourt is Robert Woodard II (6'7, 230), who is averaging 11.8 points/ 7.3 rebounds and is shooting over 50% from the field and outside. Woodard may be Howland's secret weapon this season seeing as most of the attention will be on the more experienced guards in the lineup. However, if you sleep on Woodard he can go off from anywhere on the floor and make you pay for forgetting about him. Woodard will crash the boards on shots and look to finish at the rim. I'd expect a heavy dose of Isaac Okoro on Woodard in this game.
The difference in this game could come down to the size of State's PF and C. Reggie Perry (6'10, 250) and Abdul Ado (6'11, 255) are two massive bodies down low. Perry is an excellent scorer, averaging 15.4 points / 9.8 rebounds while shooting 51% from the field. He won't look to step outside often, but when he does he can still knock down a respectable 30%. Ado is not a game changer when it comes to scoring himself, but when it comes to getting offensive boards and allowing other guys to score second chance points, he is one of the best in the country. Ado currently leads the SEC in offensive rebounds a game. Auburn has to have Austin Wiley playing smart and staying in position in order to avoid foul trouble. If Austin Wiley is forced to sit for a chunk of minutes due to fouls, Auburn will be at a considerable disadvantage in the size department. I expect Auburn to be forced to give up some shots to help down on the posts when Mac is on the floor. He doesn't exactly match up well with bigger bodied forwards. Danjel Purifoy is also going to have to continue to play good defense in order to slow up Perry and prevent him from taking over the game for State.
Mississippi State has two reserves averaging close to 10 points off the bench in Iverson Molinar and DJ Stewart Jr. Both are the backup guards and both are shooting over 33% from three. These two are the only scoring Howland really gets from his bench. The other two reserves that get considerable minutes are Keyshawn Feazell at F, and Prince Oduro at C. Both are averaging 2.0 points a game.
Things to Watch:
Mississippi State will arguably be the best team Auburn will have faced to this point in the season. However; the same can be said about Auburn for State. They have played a rather weak schedule to this point and dropped games to unranked Louisiana Tech at home, and NMSU on neutral court. Their lone ranked matchup came in a loss to Villanova at the Myrtle Beach Invitational. It will be interesting to see how State plays against a more athletic team in Auburn.
State has a lot of big bodies on the floor at any given point in time. Auburn will most assuredly look to run the floor and dictate pace in order to wear down the big mean for the Bulldogs. Auburn typically plays the best when games can be decided by transition and turnovers. State has also had issues this season in giving up too many turnovers a game to be successful in big time matchups. If Auburn can exploit that, I expect them to win this game.
Mississippi State is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. Auburn has to make a point to get in position when shots go up, and prevent state from cleaning up the glass and getting second chance points. If Mississippi State is allowed to dominate the glass, I don't see any way Auburn gets enough possessions to win. Austin must stay out of foul trouble, and the rest of the Tigers forwards cannot be easily backed down by the bigger forwards of State. Auburn's guys need to play physical and not let State get in a rhythm on offense down low.
ESPN currently gives Mississippi State a 50.8% chance to win this game.
Auburn is a 1 point favorite.
Key Matchup:
Austin Wiley vs. Abdul Ado
This will be a fun matchup to watch. Ado is an incredible rebounder as is Perry, but Austin has dominated down low for the last month. Austin must stay out of for trouble in this game for Auburn to have a good chance for a W. Ado isn't a huge scoring threat, but as stated above if he's given a chance to get offensive boards he will find open shooters and give his guys plenty of chances to make Auburn pay for losing the rebounding battle. Austin is the key for Auburn in this game, and I don't believe State's forwards have played against a player of Austin's caliber so far this season.
Prediction:
If Auburn wins this game, I think they go into Tuscaloosa at 15-0 (3-0) next week. This is the biggest chance for San Diego State to become the lone standing undefeated team. State has the bigger bodies, but Auburn has the more athletic lineup. If Auburn can push the pace and create turnovers, they will win. If State can slow Auburn down and keep this a half court style game, State will win. I haven't seen enough out of Auburn's half court offense to think they can pull this one out yet. I hope I'm wrong, but I think Auburn falls to 2-16 in their last 18 games in the Hump after tonight.
Mississippi State - 70
Auburn - 67
Game Time:
3:30 on the SECN
