Later this evening Auburn will take the court for the second time in three days against Lehigh University. Auburn is coming off a physical game against NC State where the Tigers pulled off a win against a quality opponent thanks to an impressive performance from Samir Doughty. Lehigh shouldn't pose as much of a threat to AU at home as NC State did, but college basketball is a sport where you can never take an opponent lightly, ($1 to Kentucky/Duke). Auburn will look to remain one of four undefeated teams in all of college basketball.
Lehigh Mountain Hawks
3-7 (0-0)
Patriot League
#254 Kenpom
#229 Realtime RPI
#269 NET Ranking
Key Team Statistics:
67.8 Points per game (301st nationally)
36.3 Rebounds per game (206th nationally)
12.5 Assists per game (270th nationally)
70.0 Points allowed per game (208th nationally)
15.2 Turnovers per game
*Lehigh is coming into this game on a 5 game losing streak
*Lehigh is 0-5 when opposing teams have scored at least 74 points
Key Wins: @ Albany
Key Losses: @ Virginia Tech, @ Saint Marys, vs Yale
The Team:
Head coach Brent Reed (207-156) is now in his 13th season as HC of the Mountain Hawks. Reed plays an 8 man rotation, but only one reserve plays more than 15 minutes per game. Auburn just played a team full of experienced guards in NC State, but tonight will be a different story. The Mountain Hawks are starting two true freshman at SG/SF. Brent Reed will look for his lone veteran, point guard Jordan Cohen to lead the charge, and play through P&R offense with their athletic playmaker Center. They won't be a team that looks to run the floor and get quick buckets, but rather they will attempt to slow Auburn down on defense and try to control tempo when they have the ball on offense.
Synergy Lehigh "poor" at transition offense with only 128 points on 154 possessions. That equates to 0.831 points per possession, good for the 4th! percentile. They are also ranked "average" at half court offensive efficiency. Scoring 547 points on 646 possessions, good for 0.847 points per possession which puts them in the 47th percentile. According to Synergy Lehigh looks for Spot Up shooters on 23% of their offensive possessions, and in that category they are "poor" in efficiency, scoring only 145 points on 187 possessions. That gets them into the 13th percentile. Lehigh will try to slow down tempo and get the ball into their shooters hands from driving and dishing.
The undisputed leader of the team is senior Point Guard Jordan Cohen (6'2, 185). Cohen is averaging 13.9 points per game, 4 boards, and 4 assists. He's also the second best outside shooter on the team knocking down 35% of his attempts from three. Cohen will be the go to guy for Coach Reed seeing as he is the lone guard in the starting lineup with big game experience.
The starters at SG/SF will not have the same experience as Cohen. Reed Fenton (6'4, 165) is a freshman shooting guard who is averaging 6.9 points per game, and Evan Taylor (6'6, 200) is the freshman opposite Fenton who is scoring 7.4 points per contest. Fenton and Taylor have been respectable from outside, shooting 33% and 38% respectively, but neither are excellent ball handlers or shoot creators to this point in their young careers. Cohen will be tasked with handling the ball and the two young guards will be looked upon to shift into good positions off of Cohen drives and relocate to open spots for clean looks. As a whole, Lehigh's inexperience has led to a major turnover issue for the Mountain Hawks, and that is something Auburn will look to exploit by pressuring the young guards when they have the ball in their hands.
Down low, Lehigh has two guys who average over 20 points a game combined. Jaemeril Wilson (6'7, 200) is a sophomore forward who will rarely leave the paint, and will look to make his money cleaning up offensive rebounds and putbacks. He's not much of a threat to step out and shoot from outside, so Danjel and the other Tiger forwards will have to do a good job of getting bodies into Wilson down low following shots, and not allowing him success on the block. James Karnik (6'9, 225) is a different story. He will be the guy they look to in the paint to use his athleticism to get buckets. He's small for a true C, but is athletic enough to make up for it. Karnik is making 60% of his FG attempts, and is the only player aside from Cohen averaging double figures at 12.5 points a game. He also cleans up 8 rebounds a game. He will not shoot from outside, but anywhere else inside the line is free game. Austin will have to do a good job of staying on his feet and maintaining good position on entry passes into the Lehigh Center. Austin has a major size advantage, but Karnik's speed could give the Auburn post some issue.
The 6th man is Reed's second and last veteran guard. Marques Wilson (6'4, 210) is a JR shooting guard and the only reserve who plays significant minutes for the Mountain Hawks. He's averaging 6.5 points a game and is another player shooting better than 30% from three. Given the experience and athleticism of Auburn's guards, it's possible Wilson could end up playing more minutes than Fenton or Taylor. The bench is rounded out by Andrei Arion (6'3, 180) and Ed Porter (6'7, 215). Arion is another freshman guard who is currently shooting 14!% from the field while attempting zero threes this season. Taylor is a PF and defacto C who is averaging 2.4 points and 2.9 rebounds a game off the bench.
Things to Watch:
Lehigh has little, to no depth. If Auburn gets any of the starters into foul trouble, the Mountain Hawks will have a lot of issues having success in any aspect of this game.
The Mountain Hawks turn the ball over at a very high rate, and Auburn has once against been very effective at making teams pay for their mistakes. All of three of AU's guards have active hands and are always looking to pick a pocket, or get a ball punched out for a quick and easy bucket in transition. Look for Auburn to bring the heat tonight and pressure the young ball handlers for Lehigh.
Like I stated earlier, this is not going to be a team that looks to push the floor and score in transition. They will take their time and set up their halfcourt offense and look to win the game that way. Unfortunately for them, they have been a poor outside shooting team, and if they aren't going to knock down 12-15 threes in this game, I don't see any way they score enough inside on Austin and Ant to overcome the talent disparity.
Auburn is a 24 point favorite and ESPN gives them a 97% chance to win this game.
Key Matchup:
Ant vs. Karnik
Mac has had a rough couple of games. No one can really deny that. Aside from knocking down some threes he hasn't brought much on offense or defense. He'll have a chance to go up against a center who more or less mirrors his style of play, sans the three attempts. Mac should have better success against a smaller/quicker center especially on defense. I think we'll see a bit of a return to form tonight against an inferior opponent in Lehigh and their guards. Two or three big blocks, and staying in good position down low could do wonders for his confidence.
Prediction:
As stated above, never take an opponent for granted in college hoops. However, this Lehigh team is downright bad on offense. They are not a defensive juggernaut either. Auburn should be in control of this game from tipoff. Auburn needs to use tonight to figure out exactly what they want to be on offense. This team will never be a half court offense running through Austin Wiley. It's also not going to be a team of deadly three point shooters who can hit from anywhere on the court. The Tigers need to be somewhere in the middle. Tonight will be a good opportunity for them to figure out exactly where that middle is. I also expect to see a fair amount of Turbo and Stretch early in the second half. Auburn should win this game handily, but stranger things have happened. Just ask Kentucky.
Auburn - 91
Lehigh - 64
Game Time:
5:00 CT on SEC Network
