Bruce Pearl's 7-0 Auburn Tigers will return to the court on Thursday for their first game in nine days. After winning the Legends Classic in Brooklyn the 14th ranked Tigers return to Auburn Arena looking to stay undefeated against the 7-2 Furman Paladins.
FURMAN PALADINS
7-2 Overall
3rd place in Southern Conference
#74 Kenpom Rankings
#102 Realtime RPI
Key Team Statistics:
78.2 Points per game (79th nationally)
33.1 Rebounds per game (342nd nationally)
15.0 Assists per game (90th nationally)
60.3 Points allowed per game (36th nationally)
The Team:
Furman coach Bob Richey deploys a seven man rotation for the bulk of his team's minutes. Those seven guys all average over twenty minutes a contest. Furman deploys two true guards and three forwards who are nearly identical in size. I'd expect the 3-5 positions for Furman to be almost interchangeable depending on which reserve guards come onto the floor.
The point guard will be Alex Hunter (5'11, 175 Junior) who is averaging 9.3 ppg/ 3.6 rbg/ 3.3 assists while shooting 40% from the field and 30% from 3. Hunter is a do it all point guard who isn't afraid to shoot from outside or drive into the lane and kick to open shooters on the perimeter. One guy Hunter will be looking for is his starting shooting guard Jordan Lyons. Lyons, at 5'11 and 190 pounds, is the leading scorer for the Paladins this season. Stat line averages of 14.8 ppg / 2.1 Rpg / 2.3 assists and is currently shooting 37% from the field. Lyons is the highest volume three point shooter on the team, but is so far only hitting 27% from outside.
At Forward, Furman deploys three guys who are interchangeable at the 3-5. The go to guy for coach Richey is going to be the 6'7 junior Clay Mounce. Mounce is Furman's version of Chuma Okeke. The guy loves to work down low, but isn't afraid to step out and get hot from 3. He's shooting 44% from three right now, and also averages almost 7 rebounds a game. I would expect to see a heavy dose of Okoro/Danjel guarding Mounce and trying to force him inside and require him to make his money finishing through Auburn's big bodies down low.
The other two forwards are Noah Gurley (6'8, 210) and Jalen Slawson (6'7, 210). Gurley is the third and last Paladin averaging double digits in the scoring column at 13.4 ppg, while Slawson is one of the better rebounders on the team pulling down 5.3 boards. Gurley will look to play down low, but will shoot from outside if Auburn chooses to leave him with space. He's knocked down 6-12 attempts from 3 so far this season, so he is capable of hurting you from deep. Slawson will look to pick up offensive boards and clean up misses down low for some trash baskets.
The two key reserves coming off the bench for Furman are both guards, and are both bigger bodies than the two starters. Mike Bothwell at 6'3, 190 is capable of coming off the bench and leading the team in scoring on any given night. He's a 50% shooter from the field and 34% from 3. When he's in, he'll be looking to score at every opportunity. The second guard off the bench is Tre Clark. Clark is a 6'5 junior guard who is a slasher/backdoor cutting guard who will not look to take any shots from outside. He is however connecting on 47% of his shoots from the floor.
Things to Watch:
The Paladins do not have a lot of depth at the forward position, but so far this season their post players have done an excellent job of staying out of foul trouble. Mounce, in the loss to Alabama earlier in the season, actually played FORTY minutes. If Auburn can force their posts into committing some early fouls, then the Tigers would have a legit size advantage at guard and C.
Speaking of the forwards, Furman is one of the worst rebounding teams in the country. They do not follow their shots well, and have trouble blocking out thicker, more athletic post players. I don't see many opportunities for second chance points for Furman tonight seeing as Auburn has been excellent in that area. They also aren't an excellent shot blocking team, so I expect Auburn will continue to have success getting to, and finishing, at the rim.
Furman is 7-0 when three or more players account for ten points or better.
Furman lost to Alabama by 8 while shooting a season high 41 three pointers in that game, only converting on 27% of those attempts.
The Charleston Southern team that beat Missouri last night lost to this team by fifty. College basketball is wild.
ESPN Predictor gives Auburn an 80.8% of winning this game.
Key Matchup:
Austin Wiley v. Furman's Center?
Thumbing through the lineup/roster I do not know exactly which unfortunate soul will be tasked with guarding Austin Wiley, but due to Austin's emergence in Brooklyn, I feel that whomever does get the job will be in for a long night. Austin will have the size advantage regardless of which post player is on him. Austin must continue to play tough and keep the ball off the floor when receiving interior passes. Due to Furman's issues at rebounding, Austin could have a career number of boards tonight as well.
Prediction:
Pain. This is a bad matchup for Furman. Auburn rebounds well, gets to the paint well, and still shoots a high percentage of three point shots. Not to mention Auburn's defense has been suffocating to this point in the season. Furman does not have a ton of depth, and they don't get a lot of production on the offensive end from their bench. Don't be surprised if the game is relatively close at half, but this is another game where Auburn will be able to wear down their opponent and be up 15-20 points without fans noticing. I cannot find a line for this game, but with it being Auburn's first home game since the middle of November, I think the guys will be up for playing in the jungle again. Austin could have a career night, and Headband Samir will be shooting on his home goals. I like Auburn. Bigly.
Auburn - 92
Furman - 70
Game tips tomorrow night at 8:00 CT on SEC Network
