For you folks who don't follow the NBA, praise from John Hollinger is a big deal. He's been a long-time stat/analytics guru. And he says Jabari passes the test that way, but also passes the eye test--I believe Hollinger was there in Atlanta to watch him Saturday. Here are the full comment:
Cleveland rocks! And so does potential No. 1 draft pick Jabari Smith: Hollinger’s Week That Was
Coming into the season, the general consensus was that the top prospects for the 2022 NBA Draft were Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren and Duke’s Paolo Banchero.
Not anymore.
Several NBA scouts and multiple GMs were in Atlanta on Saturday to watch Auburn’s Jabari Smith Jr. against Nebraska, and they had to come away impressed after his 21 points, five rebounds, four assists and two steals in just 23 minutes led the Tigers to a 99-68 thrashing of the Huskers.
Folks, Smith isn’t just “in the running” for the top pick; he might be the favorite at this point. Analytically, his resume from the early part of the season is about as strong as you could imagine: A 30.9 PER and 13.9 BPM, very high rates of steals (3.7 per 100) and assists (5.3 per 100) for a big forward, and did I mention that he’s shooting 44.7 percent from 3 and 84.6 percent from the line? There are no offsetting warts here; he has a low turnover rate, and he’s scoring and dishing at a high rate. You might want to see him shoot a little better inside the arc, a consequence of his shooting a lot of jump shots rather than getting all the way to the cup. That’s about it.
Watching him shoot before Saturday’s game, I can’t emphasize enough what a non-fluke those shooting stats are. Smiths’ release is absolute butter, a smooth launch with clean mechanics and perfect spin that traces an elegant 45-degree parabola toward the bottom of the net. He has to clean up some footwork shooting off the dribble, but he’s already very comfortable rising up from shorter range to hit jump shots, as he showed multiple times Saturday.
That’s the best thing about Smith: I talked about his stats above, and they’re awesome, but holy eye test, Batman. He can run and jump and make plays for other people; he can move on the perimeter and still challenge shots at the rim, and he might be the best shooter in the draft.
Watch here, for instance, as he jumps a half-beat too soon to challenge a 3-pointer, helicopters in the air for a while waiting for the shooter to catch up and stuffs the shot with his wrist. This is not common.
Are there still boxes left for Smith to check? Sure. At 6-10, scouts will want to see him dominate on the interior a bit more — his rebound rate is fine (14.2 percent) but hardly exceptional for this level of prospect, and he’s only blocked six shots in nine games. But this is searching really, really hard for things to nit-pick.
I think Holmgren is going to be an elite rim protector, and Banchero looks like a young Carmelo Anthony, but if I had the top pick tomorrow, there’s no question whom I would take. There are very, very few prospects who combine elite athleticism with elite skill level, and Smith looks like he’s one of them.
@DM8 this is the full article I was telling you about.
Cleveland rocks! And so does potential No. 1 draft pick Jabari Smith: Hollinger’s Week That Was
PROSPECT OF THE WEEK: Jabari Smith Jr., 6-10, freshman PF, Auburn
(Note: This section won’t necessarily profile the best prospect of the week. Just the one I’ve been watching.)Coming into the season, the general consensus was that the top prospects for the 2022 NBA Draft were Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren and Duke’s Paolo Banchero.
Not anymore.
Several NBA scouts and multiple GMs were in Atlanta on Saturday to watch Auburn’s Jabari Smith Jr. against Nebraska, and they had to come away impressed after his 21 points, five rebounds, four assists and two steals in just 23 minutes led the Tigers to a 99-68 thrashing of the Huskers.
Folks, Smith isn’t just “in the running” for the top pick; he might be the favorite at this point. Analytically, his resume from the early part of the season is about as strong as you could imagine: A 30.9 PER and 13.9 BPM, very high rates of steals (3.7 per 100) and assists (5.3 per 100) for a big forward, and did I mention that he’s shooting 44.7 percent from 3 and 84.6 percent from the line? There are no offsetting warts here; he has a low turnover rate, and he’s scoring and dishing at a high rate. You might want to see him shoot a little better inside the arc, a consequence of his shooting a lot of jump shots rather than getting all the way to the cup. That’s about it.
Watching him shoot before Saturday’s game, I can’t emphasize enough what a non-fluke those shooting stats are. Smiths’ release is absolute butter, a smooth launch with clean mechanics and perfect spin that traces an elegant 45-degree parabola toward the bottom of the net. He has to clean up some footwork shooting off the dribble, but he’s already very comfortable rising up from shorter range to hit jump shots, as he showed multiple times Saturday.
That’s the best thing about Smith: I talked about his stats above, and they’re awesome, but holy eye test, Batman. He can run and jump and make plays for other people; he can move on the perimeter and still challenge shots at the rim, and he might be the best shooter in the draft.
Watch here, for instance, as he jumps a half-beat too soon to challenge a 3-pointer, helicopters in the air for a while waiting for the shooter to catch up and stuffs the shot with his wrist. This is not common.
Are there still boxes left for Smith to check? Sure. At 6-10, scouts will want to see him dominate on the interior a bit more — his rebound rate is fine (14.2 percent) but hardly exceptional for this level of prospect, and he’s only blocked six shots in nine games. But this is searching really, really hard for things to nit-pick.
I think Holmgren is going to be an elite rim protector, and Banchero looks like a young Carmelo Anthony, but if I had the top pick tomorrow, there’s no question whom I would take. There are very, very few prospects who combine elite athleticism with elite skill level, and Smith looks like he’s one of them.
@DM8 this is the full article I was telling you about.
