(WARNING: This shat is TL/DR, so you have been served. Taunts and harsh gifs encouraged, you bastages.)
It's seemingly an accepted "given" that it's just hard to win as the visiting team in college basketball. But objectively, what appear to be the factors at work in college basketball's home team dominance? (The midpoint of the current 351 home court winning percentages is 67.65%, with half of those teams' winning percentages above it and half below it.)
How has a good, yet flawed team like Auburn managed to be unblemished this long season in Auburn Arena, which is sure to continue through tomorrow night vs aTm? I believe it is more than simply The Jungle making it loud, and hard on the visitors. I believe it's also the "placebo effect" of our players simply believing that they play better and shoot better in our house (see below).
It "appears" that vocal home crowds effect almost every element of the game environment, favorably for the home team, and unfavorably for the visitor, EVEN referee tendencies. Duh.
But does it make any sense that even teams with good records aren't able to have more success on the road?
Seth Davis did quite a bit of research, and his theories as to why college hoops has the biggest home court advantage centered on three factors: teams often practice in the same arenas where they play games, which creates familiarities with rims, atmospherics and sight lines; young athletes are more prone to be influenced by unfamiliar environments and hostile crowds; and referees tend to be swayed by the home crowds.
Interestingly, in 2017, the statistics marked a slight decline in home team wins in college basketball, but why? Rick Pitino had believable theories.
Pitino immediately cited improved refereeing as the driving force. “I think the refereeing has gotten much stronger because of television,” he said. “Now, if a ref acts like a homer or makes a mistake, the TV guys will jump on them. That has made them conscious of not being homers.”
Pitino also cited advances in digital video that allow for a better evaluation process. “Seven years ago, even five years ago, we didn’t have the use of technology that we have now to show referees their mistakes,” he said. “Like, we have [ACC officiating coordinator] Bryan Kersey. I’ll send him clips of four or five mistakes from one of our games, and he’ll say, ‘The guys already have that on their computers.’ These officials are being evaluated so much, the crowd is no longer getting to them. Whereas in the past, if I walked in and saw certain refs on a game, I’d say this is going to a much bigger home court advantage.”
Lettuce look to the NBA database, with the following excerpts from a statistical analysis thereof.
Between 1999-2008, a team with home-court advantage in the playoffs won more than three out of four series. In the first round, home teams won series at a rate of 81.3 percent. In the conference semifinals, home teams won 80 percent of the time. In the conference finals, it is interesting to note that the winning percentage dropped to 50 percent. In the NBA Finals, it climbed back up to 80 percent.
Of the four major American professional sports, home court advantage is the most significant in the NBA, with teams consistently winning around 60 percent of their regular season games in their home arenas. (Note, while this article is 6 years dated, the stats have not likely changed materially).
From 1998-2008, home teams in the regular season won 7,021 games while losing 4,569 games for a winning percentage of 60.6.
During this same period of time, home teams in the postseason won 513 games while losing only 278. The winning percentage in the playoffs for home teams was 64.9 (more than four percentage points higher than it was for home teams in the regular season).
So in the much more balanced NBA as compared to college hoops, what factors drive the home court advantage so significantly?
To try to answer some of the differences between playing on the road and playing at home, let's analyze the statistics:
When at home (between 2003-2011) compared to on the road, teams decreased their turnovers by 3.1 percent per game, increased scoring by 3.4 percent, increased fast-break points by 12.7 percent and decreased fouls committed by 4.7 percent.
What explains the large disparity in home and away numbers?
Referee bias and the psychological impact of playing at home are two of the biggest factors.
Studies have show that when a crowd is vocal, it impacts the way referees call a game. Albeit subconsciously, referees have historically favored home teams. Between 2003-2011, referees called an average of 22.15 fouls on away teams per game and only 21.13 fouls on home teams.
In addition, the psychological impact of playing at home is a self-sustaining placebo effect: Home-court advantage gives the home team an edge simply because players believe that it does.
Between 1999-2008, a team with home-court advantage in the playoffs won more than three out of four series. In the first round, home teams won series at a rate of 81.3 percent. In the conference semifinals, home teams won 80 percent of the time. In the conference finals, it is interesting to note that the winning percentage dropped to 50 percent. In the NBA Finals, it climbed back up to 80 percent.
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1520496-how-important-is-home-court-advantage-in-the-nba
It's seemingly an accepted "given" that it's just hard to win as the visiting team in college basketball. But objectively, what appear to be the factors at work in college basketball's home team dominance? (The midpoint of the current 351 home court winning percentages is 67.65%, with half of those teams' winning percentages above it and half below it.)
How has a good, yet flawed team like Auburn managed to be unblemished this long season in Auburn Arena, which is sure to continue through tomorrow night vs aTm? I believe it is more than simply The Jungle making it loud, and hard on the visitors. I believe it's also the "placebo effect" of our players simply believing that they play better and shoot better in our house (see below).
It "appears" that vocal home crowds effect almost every element of the game environment, favorably for the home team, and unfavorably for the visitor, EVEN referee tendencies. Duh.
But does it make any sense that even teams with good records aren't able to have more success on the road?
Seth Davis did quite a bit of research, and his theories as to why college hoops has the biggest home court advantage centered on three factors: teams often practice in the same arenas where they play games, which creates familiarities with rims, atmospherics and sight lines; young athletes are more prone to be influenced by unfamiliar environments and hostile crowds; and referees tend to be swayed by the home crowds.
Interestingly, in 2017, the statistics marked a slight decline in home team wins in college basketball, but why? Rick Pitino had believable theories.
Pitino immediately cited improved refereeing as the driving force. “I think the refereeing has gotten much stronger because of television,” he said. “Now, if a ref acts like a homer or makes a mistake, the TV guys will jump on them. That has made them conscious of not being homers.”
Pitino also cited advances in digital video that allow for a better evaluation process. “Seven years ago, even five years ago, we didn’t have the use of technology that we have now to show referees their mistakes,” he said. “Like, we have [ACC officiating coordinator] Bryan Kersey. I’ll send him clips of four or five mistakes from one of our games, and he’ll say, ‘The guys already have that on their computers.’ These officials are being evaluated so much, the crowd is no longer getting to them. Whereas in the past, if I walked in and saw certain refs on a game, I’d say this is going to a much bigger home court advantage.”
Lettuce look to the NBA database, with the following excerpts from a statistical analysis thereof.
Between 1999-2008, a team with home-court advantage in the playoffs won more than three out of four series. In the first round, home teams won series at a rate of 81.3 percent. In the conference semifinals, home teams won 80 percent of the time. In the conference finals, it is interesting to note that the winning percentage dropped to 50 percent. In the NBA Finals, it climbed back up to 80 percent.
Of the four major American professional sports, home court advantage is the most significant in the NBA, with teams consistently winning around 60 percent of their regular season games in their home arenas. (Note, while this article is 6 years dated, the stats have not likely changed materially).
From 1998-2008, home teams in the regular season won 7,021 games while losing 4,569 games for a winning percentage of 60.6.
During this same period of time, home teams in the postseason won 513 games while losing only 278. The winning percentage in the playoffs for home teams was 64.9 (more than four percentage points higher than it was for home teams in the regular season).
So in the much more balanced NBA as compared to college hoops, what factors drive the home court advantage so significantly?
To try to answer some of the differences between playing on the road and playing at home, let's analyze the statistics:
When at home (between 2003-2011) compared to on the road, teams decreased their turnovers by 3.1 percent per game, increased scoring by 3.4 percent, increased fast-break points by 12.7 percent and decreased fouls committed by 4.7 percent.
What explains the large disparity in home and away numbers?
Referee bias and the psychological impact of playing at home are two of the biggest factors.
Studies have show that when a crowd is vocal, it impacts the way referees call a game. Albeit subconsciously, referees have historically favored home teams. Between 2003-2011, referees called an average of 22.15 fouls on away teams per game and only 21.13 fouls on home teams.
In addition, the psychological impact of playing at home is a self-sustaining placebo effect: Home-court advantage gives the home team an edge simply because players believe that it does.
Between 1999-2008, a team with home-court advantage in the playoffs won more than three out of four series. In the first round, home teams won series at a rate of 81.3 percent. In the conference semifinals, home teams won 80 percent of the time. In the conference finals, it is interesting to note that the winning percentage dropped to 50 percent. In the NBA Finals, it climbed back up to 80 percent.
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1520496-how-important-is-home-court-advantage-in-the-nba
