** I will be adding additional info later today.
Offense and Defense
*** Auburn Offense:
Rush 5.2 yards/attempt
Pass 9.2 yards/attempt
*** bama Offense:
Rush 6 yards/attempt
Pass 9.1 yards/attempt
*** Auburn Defense Allowing:
Rush 3.1 yards/attempt
Pass 5.8 yards/attempt
*** bama Defense Allowing:
Rush 2.7 yards/attempt
Pass 5.3 yards/attempt
*** Auburn Defense has faced better offensive rushing and passing teams so far this season. This is based on teams faced combined yards per attempt.
Auburn Opponent avgs: Rush 4.8 Pass 7.88
bama Opponent avgs: Rush 4.3 Pass 7.5
** Auburn has averaged 43.2 points at home this season (Mercer not included)
** bama has averaged 35 points when playing not at home. (59 points scored against Vandy, 24, 27 and 31 are the other scores)
** Auburn defense has a total of 32 sacks on the season, bama has 30.
** Auburn defense has 9 players with 20 or more tackles, including 7 players with 5 or more tackles for a loss.
** bama defense has 7 players with 20 or more tackles, including 6 players with 5 or more tackles for a loss.
** Auburn has forced a total of 17 turnovers. 6 int's and 11 fumbles
** bama has forced a total of 19 turnovers. 15 int's and 4 fumbles.
Special Teams:
Kickoff and Punt Returns:
bama is surprisingly unimpressive: 12 returns total on the year (second worst in NCAA) for an average of 20.8 yards, 30 punt returns for an avg. of 7.8 yards. 0 TDs
Auburn: 18 returns for an average of 22 yards, 18 punt returns for an avg. of 9.7, 1 TD.
In terms of Field Goals:
bama - 16/22 72%
Auburn - 19/25 76%
Monday Afternoon Score prediction: Auburn 24 bama 24, OT will determine the SEC West Champion
Tuesday Pre-Game Thoughts:
Hurts
The key to winning this game might come down to which defense effects the opposing QB the most. At this point in the season, teams have well established trend and efficiency based on in game patterns. For example, Hurts has been significantly more of a running threat on 1st downs than any other down. Or Stidham, is significantly a more efficient passer on 1st down than on 3rd down. They both play well into the other strong points of the offense.
Hurts passing and rushing:
2nd down & 3-7: 21/31 183 yards 67% - 14 rushes 33 yards
3rd down & 3-7: 16/27 252 yards 59% - 15 rushes 120 yards
1st down & 8-10: 48/72 780 yards 66% - 44 rushes 364 yards
2nd down & 8-10: 16/27 279 yards 59% - 15 rushes 59 yards
3rd down & 8-10: 6/13 138 yards 46% - 9 rushes 37 yards
** A couple inferences from above: Hurts running on 1st down and 10 is a real and effective component of the bama offense. In fact, Hurts averages 7.8 yards per carry on 1st down. Not to mention the rest of the bama rushing offense is nearly unstoppable on 1st down as well. Scarbourgh avgs 6.2 yards per carrry on 1st down, Harris avgs. 8.6 yards on first down, and Jacobs has an avg of 7.7 on first down runs.
1st down is very important to the bama offense.
One more very important note about the bama offense is what happens on third down:
Hurts has nearly 4x the carries of Scarbrough and Harris on 3rd down rushes. Scarbrough and Harris both are virtually useless on third downs in the bama offense. Harris has 5 carries to date on third down for an avg of 4.4 per run. Scarbrough has 5 carries as well for an 3.2 avg per run.
Ridley is interesting... He has accounted for 33% of the receptions for the bama offense. That is a lot. Not to mention he has accounted for 37% of the receiving yards. He has 52 catches for 858 yards. More interesting is the lack of a second or third WR. The next two WRs combine for 25 catches on the year and only 400 yards.
For comparison, Ryan Davis is the AU leader in receptions with 58 and 564 yards. That is 30% of the receptions, but only 22% of the receiving yards. The next two WRs in terms of receptions combine for 45 catches and 771 receiving yards.
Simply put, the AU offense feature a more diverse passing game and more diverse use of WRs. That's leaving out that Will Hastings numbers which are not included above because I have him technically listed at the WR4 in the offense. He alone has nearly more receiving yards that bama's #2 and #3 WR combined.
The bama offense:
The key to winning this game might come down to which defense effects the opposing QB the most. At this point in the season, teams have well established trend and efficiency based on in game patterns.
Hurts passing and rushing:
2nd down & 3-7: 21 of 31 for 183 yards - 67% completion percentage - 14 rushes 33 yards
3rd down & 3-7: 16 of 27 for 252 yards - 59% completion percentage- 15 rushes 120 yards
1st down & 8-10: 48 of 72 for 780 yards - 66% completion percentage - 44 rushes 364 yards
2nd down & 8-10: 16 of 27 for 279 yards - 59% completion percentage - 15 rushes 59 yards
3rd down & 8-10: 6 of 13 for 138 yards - 46% completion percentage - 9 rushes 37 yards
** A couple inferences from above: Hurts running on 1st down and 10 is a real and effective component of the bama offense. In fact, Hurts averages 7.8 yards per carry on 1st down. Not to mention the rest of the bama rushing offense is nearly unstoppable on 1st down as well. Scarbourgh avgs 6.2 yards per carrry on 1st down, Harris avgs. 8.6 yards on first down, and Jacobs has an avg of 7.7 on first down runs.
1st down is very important to the bama offense.
One more very important note about the bama offense is what happens on third down:
Hurts has nearly 4x the carries of Scarbrough and Harris on 3rd down rushes. Scarbrough and Harris both are virtually useless on third downs in the bama offense. Harris has 5 carries to date on third down for an avg of 4.4 per run. Scarbrough has 5 carries as well for an 3.2 avg per run.
Can Auburn defense control the line of scrimmage to force the bama offense in to 2 and long and 3 and longs? That is a major key.
Update: Adding some down clarification.
bama Offense:
Hurts has thrown 75 of his 200 passes on 1st down. 37%
Hurts has thrown 70 of his 200 passes on 2nd down. 35%
Hurts has thrown 55 of his 200 passes on 3rd down. 27%
Hurts, Harris and Scarbrough account for 170 rushes of their combined 325 carries on 1st down. 52%
Hurts, Harris and Scarbrough account for 101 rushes of their combined 325 carries on 2nd down. 31%
Hurts, Harris and Scarbrough account for 45 rushes of their combined 325 carries on 3rd down. 13%
bama offense run/pass ratio on 1st down: 70% run and 30% pass
bama offense run/pass ratio on 2nd down: 59% run and 41% pass
bama offense run/pass ratio on 3rd down: 45% run and 55% pass
Interestingly, if you combine Hurts rushes and passes on 3rd down, he accounts for 90% of bama offense on 3rd downs.
Hurts is 11 of 20 for 190 yards passing on 3rd and less than 6. He has 14 rushes for 69 yards.
Hurts is 20 of 35 for 326 yards passing on 3rd and more than 6. He has 21 rushes for 101 yards.
Just from looking at the numbers it appears that when they are forced to 3rd downs, it typically is 3rd and more than 6. They convert 43% of their third downs.
Auburn Offense:
Stidham has thrown 87 of his 267 passes on 1st down. 32%
Stidham has thrown 99 of his 267 passes on 2nd down. 37%
Stidham has thrown 80 of his 267 passes on 3rd down. 29%
Kerryon has 119 rushes of his 220 carries on 1st down. 54%
Kerryon has 71 rushes of his 220 carries on 2nd down. 32%
Kerryon has 26 rushes of his 220 carries on 3rd down. 11%
Auburn offense run/pass ratio on 1st down: 58% run and 42% pass
Auburn offense run/pass ratio on 2nd down: 41% run and 58% pass
Auburn offense run/pass ratio of 3rd down: 25% run and 75% pass
*** Interesting numbers and interesting trend among the two teams. bama becomes more balanced on late downs and Auburn is more balanced on early downs.
Tuesday Prediction:
Based off the numbers today, I feel like AU can really influence the game with their defense. I know it sounds cliche or coach speak, but if Auburn can get the bama offense off-schedule on first down, then it really has a chance to make them less effective. Another truth that is not really mentioned is the quality of the opponents bama has faced this season. They have not been truly tested by anybody with comparable talent. At this point, there is no reason to think Auburn is the best team bama has faced this season. Not to mention this is a road game for them too. There are some significant advantages for AU in this game. And I honestly, don't think bama has a single advantage on the field other than at head coach. That sounds like a lot of SSPing, but I don't see where they are markedly better at any position.
Right now, I am at: 31-AU 24-bama
I know that is a 7 point swing but I just see this game favoring AU at the moment.
Offense and Defense
*** Auburn Offense:
Rush 5.2 yards/attempt
Pass 9.2 yards/attempt
*** bama Offense:
Rush 6 yards/attempt
Pass 9.1 yards/attempt
*** Auburn Defense Allowing:
Rush 3.1 yards/attempt
Pass 5.8 yards/attempt
*** bama Defense Allowing:
Rush 2.7 yards/attempt
Pass 5.3 yards/attempt
*** Auburn Defense has faced better offensive rushing and passing teams so far this season. This is based on teams faced combined yards per attempt.
Auburn Opponent avgs: Rush 4.8 Pass 7.88
bama Opponent avgs: Rush 4.3 Pass 7.5
** Auburn has averaged 43.2 points at home this season (Mercer not included)
** bama has averaged 35 points when playing not at home. (59 points scored against Vandy, 24, 27 and 31 are the other scores)
** Auburn defense has a total of 32 sacks on the season, bama has 30.
** Auburn defense has 9 players with 20 or more tackles, including 7 players with 5 or more tackles for a loss.
** bama defense has 7 players with 20 or more tackles, including 6 players with 5 or more tackles for a loss.
** Auburn has forced a total of 17 turnovers. 6 int's and 11 fumbles
** bama has forced a total of 19 turnovers. 15 int's and 4 fumbles.
Special Teams:
Kickoff and Punt Returns:
bama is surprisingly unimpressive: 12 returns total on the year (second worst in NCAA) for an average of 20.8 yards, 30 punt returns for an avg. of 7.8 yards. 0 TDs
Auburn: 18 returns for an average of 22 yards, 18 punt returns for an avg. of 9.7, 1 TD.
In terms of Field Goals:
bama - 16/22 72%
Auburn - 19/25 76%
Monday Afternoon Score prediction: Auburn 24 bama 24, OT will determine the SEC West Champion
Tuesday Pre-Game Thoughts:
Hurts
The key to winning this game might come down to which defense effects the opposing QB the most. At this point in the season, teams have well established trend and efficiency based on in game patterns. For example, Hurts has been significantly more of a running threat on 1st downs than any other down. Or Stidham, is significantly a more efficient passer on 1st down than on 3rd down. They both play well into the other strong points of the offense.
Hurts passing and rushing:
2nd down & 3-7: 21/31 183 yards 67% - 14 rushes 33 yards
3rd down & 3-7: 16/27 252 yards 59% - 15 rushes 120 yards
1st down & 8-10: 48/72 780 yards 66% - 44 rushes 364 yards
2nd down & 8-10: 16/27 279 yards 59% - 15 rushes 59 yards
3rd down & 8-10: 6/13 138 yards 46% - 9 rushes 37 yards
** A couple inferences from above: Hurts running on 1st down and 10 is a real and effective component of the bama offense. In fact, Hurts averages 7.8 yards per carry on 1st down. Not to mention the rest of the bama rushing offense is nearly unstoppable on 1st down as well. Scarbourgh avgs 6.2 yards per carrry on 1st down, Harris avgs. 8.6 yards on first down, and Jacobs has an avg of 7.7 on first down runs.
1st down is very important to the bama offense.
One more very important note about the bama offense is what happens on third down:
Hurts has nearly 4x the carries of Scarbrough and Harris on 3rd down rushes. Scarbrough and Harris both are virtually useless on third downs in the bama offense. Harris has 5 carries to date on third down for an avg of 4.4 per run. Scarbrough has 5 carries as well for an 3.2 avg per run.
Ridley is interesting... He has accounted for 33% of the receptions for the bama offense. That is a lot. Not to mention he has accounted for 37% of the receiving yards. He has 52 catches for 858 yards. More interesting is the lack of a second or third WR. The next two WRs combine for 25 catches on the year and only 400 yards.
For comparison, Ryan Davis is the AU leader in receptions with 58 and 564 yards. That is 30% of the receptions, but only 22% of the receiving yards. The next two WRs in terms of receptions combine for 45 catches and 771 receiving yards.
Simply put, the AU offense feature a more diverse passing game and more diverse use of WRs. That's leaving out that Will Hastings numbers which are not included above because I have him technically listed at the WR4 in the offense. He alone has nearly more receiving yards that bama's #2 and #3 WR combined.
The bama offense:
The key to winning this game might come down to which defense effects the opposing QB the most. At this point in the season, teams have well established trend and efficiency based on in game patterns.
Hurts passing and rushing:
2nd down & 3-7: 21 of 31 for 183 yards - 67% completion percentage - 14 rushes 33 yards
3rd down & 3-7: 16 of 27 for 252 yards - 59% completion percentage- 15 rushes 120 yards
1st down & 8-10: 48 of 72 for 780 yards - 66% completion percentage - 44 rushes 364 yards
2nd down & 8-10: 16 of 27 for 279 yards - 59% completion percentage - 15 rushes 59 yards
3rd down & 8-10: 6 of 13 for 138 yards - 46% completion percentage - 9 rushes 37 yards
** A couple inferences from above: Hurts running on 1st down and 10 is a real and effective component of the bama offense. In fact, Hurts averages 7.8 yards per carry on 1st down. Not to mention the rest of the bama rushing offense is nearly unstoppable on 1st down as well. Scarbourgh avgs 6.2 yards per carrry on 1st down, Harris avgs. 8.6 yards on first down, and Jacobs has an avg of 7.7 on first down runs.
1st down is very important to the bama offense.
One more very important note about the bama offense is what happens on third down:
Hurts has nearly 4x the carries of Scarbrough and Harris on 3rd down rushes. Scarbrough and Harris both are virtually useless on third downs in the bama offense. Harris has 5 carries to date on third down for an avg of 4.4 per run. Scarbrough has 5 carries as well for an 3.2 avg per run.
Can Auburn defense control the line of scrimmage to force the bama offense in to 2 and long and 3 and longs? That is a major key.
Update: Adding some down clarification.
bama Offense:
Hurts has thrown 75 of his 200 passes on 1st down. 37%
Hurts has thrown 70 of his 200 passes on 2nd down. 35%
Hurts has thrown 55 of his 200 passes on 3rd down. 27%
Hurts, Harris and Scarbrough account for 170 rushes of their combined 325 carries on 1st down. 52%
Hurts, Harris and Scarbrough account for 101 rushes of their combined 325 carries on 2nd down. 31%
Hurts, Harris and Scarbrough account for 45 rushes of their combined 325 carries on 3rd down. 13%
bama offense run/pass ratio on 1st down: 70% run and 30% pass
bama offense run/pass ratio on 2nd down: 59% run and 41% pass
bama offense run/pass ratio on 3rd down: 45% run and 55% pass
Interestingly, if you combine Hurts rushes and passes on 3rd down, he accounts for 90% of bama offense on 3rd downs.
Hurts is 11 of 20 for 190 yards passing on 3rd and less than 6. He has 14 rushes for 69 yards.
Hurts is 20 of 35 for 326 yards passing on 3rd and more than 6. He has 21 rushes for 101 yards.
Just from looking at the numbers it appears that when they are forced to 3rd downs, it typically is 3rd and more than 6. They convert 43% of their third downs.
Auburn Offense:
Stidham has thrown 87 of his 267 passes on 1st down. 32%
Stidham has thrown 99 of his 267 passes on 2nd down. 37%
Stidham has thrown 80 of his 267 passes on 3rd down. 29%
Kerryon has 119 rushes of his 220 carries on 1st down. 54%
Kerryon has 71 rushes of his 220 carries on 2nd down. 32%
Kerryon has 26 rushes of his 220 carries on 3rd down. 11%
Auburn offense run/pass ratio on 1st down: 58% run and 42% pass
Auburn offense run/pass ratio on 2nd down: 41% run and 58% pass
Auburn offense run/pass ratio of 3rd down: 25% run and 75% pass
*** Interesting numbers and interesting trend among the two teams. bama becomes more balanced on late downs and Auburn is more balanced on early downs.
Tuesday Prediction:
Based off the numbers today, I feel like AU can really influence the game with their defense. I know it sounds cliche or coach speak, but if Auburn can get the bama offense off-schedule on first down, then it really has a chance to make them less effective. Another truth that is not really mentioned is the quality of the opponents bama has faced this season. They have not been truly tested by anybody with comparable talent. At this point, there is no reason to think Auburn is the best team bama has faced this season. Not to mention this is a road game for them too. There are some significant advantages for AU in this game. And I honestly, don't think bama has a single advantage on the field other than at head coach. That sounds like a lot of SSPing, but I don't see where they are markedly better at any position.
Right now, I am at: 31-AU 24-bama
I know that is a 7 point swing but I just see this game favoring AU at the moment.
