How many named hurricanes do you predict for 2023? How many major hurricanes (Cat 3 or higher at land fall) do you predict?
Record-high ocean temperatures are setting the stage for an active Atlantic hurricane season with explosive tropical development, but just one thing is missing: storms. There have been no tropical storms in the Atlantic basin in nearly a month, and none so far this year have come close to the United States.
But the busiest stretch of hurricane season kicks off in less than a week. And with ocean heat running high, experts are urging people to get their safety plans in place and prepare for tropical trouble that could start within the next couple of weeks.
Ocean heat is off the charts, so where are the hurricanes? Forecasters warn a change is coming© Provided by CNN
A growing expert consensus is now forecasting an uptick in hurricane activity. An updated outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday called for an above-average hurricane season – an increase from the near-normal forecast it released in May.
“We have increased the chance for above normal activity to 60% from 30%,” Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said in a news release. “The chances of a below normal season are now at only 15%.”
Rosencrans told CNN there was “moderate confidence” conditions will become more conducive for tropical development within a week or two. And forecasters are honing in on the development potential in the open Atlantic during this time and into September, a forecast that lines up with typical climatology.
NOAA forecasters join other experts in the field that have recently increased their hurricane risk outlooks, including researchers at Colorado State University.
The forecasts are leaning on several climatological factors, but also on exceptionally warm oceans, which provide storms the fuel needed to explode in strength and even undergo rapid intensification. NOAA said sea surface temperatures were warmer than anticipated, and a major factor in increasing the odds of an active season.
Ocean heat is off the charts, so where are the hurricanes? Forecasters warn a change is coming
Story by By Mary Gilbert, CNN Meteorologist •16hRecord-high ocean temperatures are setting the stage for an active Atlantic hurricane season with explosive tropical development, but just one thing is missing: storms. There have been no tropical storms in the Atlantic basin in nearly a month, and none so far this year have come close to the United States.
But the busiest stretch of hurricane season kicks off in less than a week. And with ocean heat running high, experts are urging people to get their safety plans in place and prepare for tropical trouble that could start within the next couple of weeks.
Ocean heat is off the charts, so where are the hurricanes? Forecasters warn a change is coming© Provided by CNN
A growing expert consensus is now forecasting an uptick in hurricane activity. An updated outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday called for an above-average hurricane season – an increase from the near-normal forecast it released in May.
“We have increased the chance for above normal activity to 60% from 30%,” Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said in a news release. “The chances of a below normal season are now at only 15%.”
Rosencrans told CNN there was “moderate confidence” conditions will become more conducive for tropical development within a week or two. And forecasters are honing in on the development potential in the open Atlantic during this time and into September, a forecast that lines up with typical climatology.
NOAA forecasters join other experts in the field that have recently increased their hurricane risk outlooks, including researchers at Colorado State University.
The forecasts are leaning on several climatological factors, but also on exceptionally warm oceans, which provide storms the fuel needed to explode in strength and even undergo rapid intensification. NOAA said sea surface temperatures were warmer than anticipated, and a major factor in increasing the odds of an active season.
