Over the past few weeks, I've made some unpopular assertions about the state of the AU football program. Undoubtedly, some of the people who argued with me then will agree with me now. That's okay.
Before I get into the hard truths you came to read, let me first turn your attention to my proven track record of accurate predictions in the past few weeks. I bet 5 dimes on AU to cover against Ark St, and I explained my reasoning here. When we did cover, I made some unpopular statements about our talent level on offense. You can view that thread here. I recommend you read that post because I cover some things there that I won't be discussing here, but are still pertinent.
After betting AU HUGE against Ark St, I shifted my bets to A&M and under the following week, among a few others which were also winners. You can view that post here. Clearly I have my finger on the pulse of this AU team in a way few other fans do.
With my track record of sound logic and accurate predictions proven, let me shift your attention to the premises on which I have based all of my (documented) wagers.
1. Our biggest problem BY FAR is lack of talent on offense. The simple, hard truth is that Gus's offense needs an above-average QB to operate efficiently. There are a few toxic combinatory areas of deficiency for Gus's offense, and each of our QB has a different set.
-SW is not quick enough and his long balls are not good. He cannot stretch a defense out. Perhaps in another system he'd have more success with a more sophisticated pocket passing scheme. But under Gus's current offense, Gus is not allowing him to even attempt to stretch the defense vertically. Given his proclivity for doing that in the past, I have to assume SW is not consistent enough in his long ball delivery. My theory is that his hands are not big enough to consistently get good launch when he throws as hard as he can.
-JF3 does not know the offense and is not a good passer. Perhaps Gus could design a system where JF3 was our QB and we ran the ball 75% of the time, but I have my doubts JF3 could learn and execute a system like that.
-JJ has more deficiencies than strengths.
We also have a huge talent problem at OT. Just look at our OT recruiting compared to other top-tier SEC schools.
We have solid young talent in Pettway, who may be the best new back in the league. This should have been easy to spot in practice by the coaches, but was missed before our huge home opener.
We have solid young WR talent that may not be ready to play. Once again, this is on the coaches. They have to know how bad our other WRs are and figure out how to get the young guys in there ASAP.
Chandler Cox is not good. Every time he touches the ball we suffer.
Gus is in over his head in talent evaluation and recruiting. If you can't do the latter, you better be DAMN good at the former. Gus is not. The personnel decisions he's made to begin the year are proof. His offense is great when it has the pieces it needs, but when it doesn't, it's not sophisticated enough to pivot much. Perhaps Gus had a chance in the Spring to install new pieces to hide our talent deficiencies, but he did not. He either misjudged our talent or decided he could sufficiently cover it up with play calling within our current system.
Either way, he was wrong, and this is why you see him admitting the offense is still a work in progress.
Before I get into the hard truths you came to read, let me first turn your attention to my proven track record of accurate predictions in the past few weeks. I bet 5 dimes on AU to cover against Ark St, and I explained my reasoning here. When we did cover, I made some unpopular statements about our talent level on offense. You can view that thread here. I recommend you read that post because I cover some things there that I won't be discussing here, but are still pertinent.
After betting AU HUGE against Ark St, I shifted my bets to A&M and under the following week, among a few others which were also winners. You can view that post here. Clearly I have my finger on the pulse of this AU team in a way few other fans do.
With my track record of sound logic and accurate predictions proven, let me shift your attention to the premises on which I have based all of my (documented) wagers.
1. Our biggest problem BY FAR is lack of talent on offense. The simple, hard truth is that Gus's offense needs an above-average QB to operate efficiently. There are a few toxic combinatory areas of deficiency for Gus's offense, and each of our QB has a different set.
-SW is not quick enough and his long balls are not good. He cannot stretch a defense out. Perhaps in another system he'd have more success with a more sophisticated pocket passing scheme. But under Gus's current offense, Gus is not allowing him to even attempt to stretch the defense vertically. Given his proclivity for doing that in the past, I have to assume SW is not consistent enough in his long ball delivery. My theory is that his hands are not big enough to consistently get good launch when he throws as hard as he can.
-JF3 does not know the offense and is not a good passer. Perhaps Gus could design a system where JF3 was our QB and we ran the ball 75% of the time, but I have my doubts JF3 could learn and execute a system like that.
-JJ has more deficiencies than strengths.
We also have a huge talent problem at OT. Just look at our OT recruiting compared to other top-tier SEC schools.
We have solid young talent in Pettway, who may be the best new back in the league. This should have been easy to spot in practice by the coaches, but was missed before our huge home opener.
We have solid young WR talent that may not be ready to play. Once again, this is on the coaches. They have to know how bad our other WRs are and figure out how to get the young guys in there ASAP.
Chandler Cox is not good. Every time he touches the ball we suffer.
Gus is in over his head in talent evaluation and recruiting. If you can't do the latter, you better be DAMN good at the former. Gus is not. The personnel decisions he's made to begin the year are proof. His offense is great when it has the pieces it needs, but when it doesn't, it's not sophisticated enough to pivot much. Perhaps Gus had a chance in the Spring to install new pieces to hide our talent deficiencies, but he did not. He either misjudged our talent or decided he could sufficiently cover it up with play calling within our current system.
Either way, he was wrong, and this is why you see him admitting the offense is still a work in progress.
