Considering the Alabama State game will be another tune up that won't shed additional light on what we learned from AU this past weekend, and the same could be said for Penn Sate's game against Ball State, here is some early analysis of our matchup with the Nittany Lions.
Before jumping into specifics on their team and how we match up, let's take a closer look at their game against Wisconsin:
Overview:
Penn State won a nail biter in Madison 16-10. In a scoreless first half Wisconsin made two trips inside Penn State's 10 yard line only to come up empty due to a blocked FG (after a false start penalty with 1st and goal at the 2) and a fumble. Penn State connected on a 49 yard TD pass early in the 3rd quarter and Wisconsin drove 10 plays and 75 yards to tie it up on their next possession. After trading FGs to start the 4th quarter, Penn State took the lead again with a 5 play, 68 yard TD drive. On the subsequent possession, Wisconsin drove down to a 1st and goal at Penn State's 1 yard line, but miscues again pushed them back and a forced 4th down pass ended with an interception. Penn State iced the game with a 2nd interception on a last second hail Mary.
Penn State came away with the win here, but the statistics tell a deeper, and different story:
First Downs
Passing
Rushing
Game Takeaways:
Clearly Penn State lived and died by the big play, but it wasn't because they were taking shots all game - they mostly looked dysfunctional on offense as noted by the 96 yards on 46 plays outside of the chunk plays. Is this all because Wisconsin has a great defense? Not based on the preseason all-B1G list - only 2 Badgers listed on the 1st, 2nd or 3rd teams, both at LB. And that is not because there are a lot of new guys stepping in behind recently departed top NFL talent. Wisconsin had 2 defenders drafted in April, a DE in the 5th round and a cornerback in the 6th round. A good offensive team should be able to move the ball on this Badger defense much easier than Penn State made it look.
When Penn State was on defense they did a good job of not allowing Wisconsin to break any big plays, but I question where or who those big plays were supposed to come from. Wisconsin's most talented offensive player is their tight end (1st team preseason All-B1G), but they only have 2 other players on the 1st, 2nd or 3rd team all-conference list, an OL and a RB who didn't play (unknown reason). So, Penn State shutting down that offense isn't necessarily a huge accomplishment. But, also worth asking, did they even shut it down? Wisconsin's top 2 backs running for over 4 ypc and QB hitting for 60% cmp% tells me it is more a story of Wisconsin's lack of playmakers and inability to finish in the red-zone than it is Penn State's defensive strength.
Reasons for Concern:
Handicapping the Game:
My guess is Penn State will open as a 3-6 point favorite. Home field advantage, particularly a white out at night in Happy Valley, will play considerably in Penn State's favor. Were this game on a neutral field, I would feel much better, but this will definitely be a good test to see what this Auburn team is all about. Has Bo really turned the corner? Has the OLine taken significant strides? Is this WR corps capable of creating separation against quality FBS talent? Penn State also has the advantage of having been tested. How much was their apparent offensive dysfunction due to it being a season opener, on the road, against a quality opponent? I expect Penn State to show more continuity on offense against us, playing at home, but will it be enough? There will be some bumps along the way, and this game will be in doubt well into the 4th quarter, but I see Auburn coming home 3-0. Auburn 27 Penn State 20.
Before jumping into specifics on their team and how we match up, let's take a closer look at their game against Wisconsin:
Overview:
Penn State won a nail biter in Madison 16-10. In a scoreless first half Wisconsin made two trips inside Penn State's 10 yard line only to come up empty due to a blocked FG (after a false start penalty with 1st and goal at the 2) and a fumble. Penn State connected on a 49 yard TD pass early in the 3rd quarter and Wisconsin drove 10 plays and 75 yards to tie it up on their next possession. After trading FGs to start the 4th quarter, Penn State took the lead again with a 5 play, 68 yard TD drive. On the subsequent possession, Wisconsin drove down to a 1st and goal at Penn State's 1 yard line, but miscues again pushed them back and a forced 4th down pass ended with an interception. Penn State iced the game with a 2nd interception on a last second hail Mary.
Penn State came away with the win here, but the statistics tell a deeper, and different story:
First Downs
Wisconsin - 29
Penn State - 11
Total YardsWisconsin - 359 (87 Plays)
Penn State - 297 (51 Plays)
- 201 yards on 5 chunk plays
- 96 yards on remaining 46 plays (2.1 YPP)
Passing
Mertz (Wisconsin) - 22/37, 185 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
Clifford (Penn State) - 18/33, 247 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
- 68% of passing yards came on 4 plays
- Remaining 29 pass attempts - 48% cmp%, 80 yds (2.8 YPA)
Rushing
Mellusi/Guerendo (Wisconsin) - 44 car, 177 yds (4.0 ypc)
Cain (Penn State) - 8 car, 48 yds (6.0 ypc)
- 34 yds on 1 carry, 14 yds on remaining 7 carries (2.0 ypc)
Game Takeaways:
Clearly Penn State lived and died by the big play, but it wasn't because they were taking shots all game - they mostly looked dysfunctional on offense as noted by the 96 yards on 46 plays outside of the chunk plays. Is this all because Wisconsin has a great defense? Not based on the preseason all-B1G list - only 2 Badgers listed on the 1st, 2nd or 3rd teams, both at LB. And that is not because there are a lot of new guys stepping in behind recently departed top NFL talent. Wisconsin had 2 defenders drafted in April, a DE in the 5th round and a cornerback in the 6th round. A good offensive team should be able to move the ball on this Badger defense much easier than Penn State made it look.
When Penn State was on defense they did a good job of not allowing Wisconsin to break any big plays, but I question where or who those big plays were supposed to come from. Wisconsin's most talented offensive player is their tight end (1st team preseason All-B1G), but they only have 2 other players on the 1st, 2nd or 3rd team all-conference list, an OL and a RB who didn't play (unknown reason). So, Penn State shutting down that offense isn't necessarily a huge accomplishment. But, also worth asking, did they even shut it down? Wisconsin's top 2 backs running for over 4 ypc and QB hitting for 60% cmp% tells me it is more a story of Wisconsin's lack of playmakers and inability to finish in the red-zone than it is Penn State's defensive strength.
Reasons for Concern:
- The left side of the offensive line - Rasheed Walker (LT) and Mike Miranda (LG) will be one of the better tackle/guard duos we see all year. Walker is a likely 1st round pick, if not the top tackle taken.
- Pass rush / secondary - Brandon Smith (OLB) can be a beast coming off the edge, and transfer Arnold Ebiketie (DE) picked up a sack over the weekend rushing opposite Smith. PSU will blitz LBs to create additional pressure. In the secondary, Tariq Castro-Fields (CB) is a lockdown corner while Jaquan Brisker (S) is one of the better safeties in the country.
- Jahan Dotson is a 1st round talent at WR and lit up Ohio State's Shaun Wade last year (8 rec, 144 yds, 3 TD). Parker Washington is a solid second option at receiver as well.
- At RB, Noah Cain is very talented and capable of breaking a big run despite the few touches he gets. He is also a threat out of the backfield.
- Where Penn State has strengths on the left side of their line, they have weaknesses on the right side. This is difficult to scheme around and is what allowed a relatively untalented Wisconsin defense keep Penn State in check for the majority of the game.
- Auburn's LB duo of Pappoe and McClain are a great match up here, as is the speed on the edge from Moultry and Hall. If Clifford wants to drop back 33 times and try to dink and dunk down the field, they will be in for a long night.
- Tank Bigsby. Nothing else really needs to be said, but Bigsby will likely be the best back PSU sees all year and he is light years better than what they faced against Wisconsin. If Tank can get some daylight and start ripping off big gains on the ground, the passing game will open up. Even if modestly contained, Tank should provide a consistent source of offense through the night.
- Talent and depth of Auburn's secondary matches well against the Penn State's air raid offense and if they can avoid giving up the big play, Penn State has not shown the ability to move the ball consistently down the field.
Handicapping the Game:
My guess is Penn State will open as a 3-6 point favorite. Home field advantage, particularly a white out at night in Happy Valley, will play considerably in Penn State's favor. Were this game on a neutral field, I would feel much better, but this will definitely be a good test to see what this Auburn team is all about. Has Bo really turned the corner? Has the OLine taken significant strides? Is this WR corps capable of creating separation against quality FBS talent? Penn State also has the advantage of having been tested. How much was their apparent offensive dysfunction due to it being a season opener, on the road, against a quality opponent? I expect Penn State to show more continuity on offense against us, playing at home, but will it be enough? There will be some bumps along the way, and this game will be in doubt well into the 4th quarter, but I see Auburn coming home 3-0. Auburn 27 Penn State 20.
