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espn breakdown of SEC tourney hopes... locks/should be in/work to do

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Jan 9, 2014
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SEC
Locks
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Auburn (22-3, 10-2 SEC)

(BPI: 15 | SOS: 67 | SOR: 10 | RPI: 6)

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Tennessee (18-6, 8-4 SEC)
(BPI: 16 | SOS: 4 | SOR: 13 | RPI: 13)
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Should be in
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Kentucky (17-8, 6-6 SEC)
(BPI: 37 | SOS: 13 | SOR: 24 | RPI: 18)

Finish this sentence: When you play Kentucky in 2018, you know you're going to get ... what, exactly? I suppose the one trait that could be used to fill in the blank would be a very low number of 3-point attempts. Throw in the fact that UK (including PJ Washington in particular) is really good at getting to the line, and you perhaps have the long and short of this team's enduring traits.

The fact that there's no clear answer to how Kentucky will win is likely related to the fact that John Calipari's team has dropped three straight games. The Wildcats' scoring over this skid has been especially abysmal, clocking in at 0.93 points per possession.

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Texas A&M (17-8, 6-6 SEC)
(BPI: 32 | SOS: 10 | SOR: 21 | RPI: 15)

Over the weekend, Texas A&M announced that J.J. Caldwell had been dismissed from the team and that Jay Jay Chandler was being suspended indefinitely. That hurts the Aggies' depth, certainly, but it's also true that both freshmen were averaging less than 12 minutes per game in SEC play.

It is therefore likely that A&M will still look like a lot like A&M in the near term, which is to say possibly the best team in the SEC right now. The Aggies are dominating the paint at both ends of the floor, and Robert Williams is blocking shots and converting 86 percent of his 2s during a four-game win streak.

All of which sounds very impressive, and now the schedule is giving the Aggies a chance to prove that they really are all that. They hit the road to play games at Missouri and Arkansas.

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Alabama (16-9, 7-5 SEC)
(BPI: 44 | SOS: 39 | SOR: 50 | RPI: 32)

Say you want to make an emphatic, seed-raising point to the NCAA men's basketball selection committee. One way of doing so would be to take one of the committee's top 16 teams and pound that team mercilessly and unmistakably into the hardwood.

That's more or less what Alabama did to Tennessee in Tuscaloosa, hammering the Volunteers 78-50. Grant Williams was a respectable 5-of-12 from the floor for the Vols, but his teammates were a combined 11-of-46.

Next up for the Tide: a home game against LSU before hitting the road to take on Kentucky and Auburn.

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Florida (17-8, 8-4 SEC)
(BPI: 31 | SOS: 19 | SOR: 27 | RPI: 43)

If you dislike close finishes, Florida is your team. Over the past four games, the Gators have lost by 12, lost by 18, won by nine and won by 24.

In beating that last opponent, South Carolina, Florida had the distinction of seeing no player score more than 12 points. The Gators are nothing if not balanced, with Chris Chiozza, Jalen Hudson, Egor Koulechov and KeVaughn Allen all carrying their fair share of the load on offense.

Their real strength, however, resides on defense, particularly on the interior. The Gators will bring their specialty to closing-stretch tests against, among others, Tennessee, Auburn, Alabama and Kentucky to close the regular season.

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Work to do
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Missouri (17-8, 7-5 SEC)
(BPI: 45 | SOS: 47 | SOR: 42 | RPI: 22)

The Tigers looked like they were in trouble in late January, but they have won four straight games, including an overtime escape at home against Mississippi State. Kassius Robertson was the hero in that contest, with 22 points, thanks in large part to 5-of-11 shooting on his 3s.

Most importantly, Missouri kept its turnovers to a bare minimum in that game. This hasn't always been the case with this offense in SEC play, and a new, low-giveaway style would portend big things for a team that reliably shoots better than its opponents but has been held back by a very large turnover deficit.

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Arkansas (17-8, 6-6 SEC)
(BPI: 41 | SOS: 44 | SOR: 39 | RPI: 30)

The Razorbacks face a remaining schedule that is either filled with opportunity or built to send the Hogs to an under-.500 finish in SEC play. Take your pick.

If Arkansas emerges unscathed from a gauntlet that will include Texas A&M, Kentucky, Alabama, Auburn and Missouri, it might be because Daniel Gaffordhas continued his rapid ascent. In the Hogs' win over Vanderbilt, the 6-foot-11 freshman scored 16 points to go with nine rebounds, seven blocks and two steals -- all in 24 minutes.

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Mississippi State (18-7, 6-6 SEC)
(BPI: 64 | SOS: 80 | SOR: 53 | RPI: 54)

Last chance, Bulldogs. You've been holding on for dear life here at Bubble Watch. Now it's time to make your move or (while we don't wish to be harsh) drop off the board.

The overtime loss at Missouri was a missed opportunity, but it also fit seamlessly with an encouraging late-season trend toward (much) improved offense. Keep that trend going and see what happens, starting with that next game at Vanderbilt.
 
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