Interesting hot topic right now. On the surface I say yes, but decided to dig a little:
NIL became legal in summer 2021. The portal has been around longer but rules have really loosened since about that same time. Since then there have been 4 tournaments. I decided to count how many teams were in the 2nd weekend (sweet 16) in the four tournaments leading up to that and the 4 tournaments since then. HUGE disclaimer- I did the numbers with and without Gonzaga. Several pundits have talked over the years about how they do not fall in the same class as mid-majors based on resources and historical success. That is a huge fact in this.
POST NIL - there have been 5 mid majors advance to the sweet 16 over 4 tournaments. (Would be 8 if you counted Gonzaga)
PRE NIL - there were 4 mid majors that advanced to the sweet 16 over four tournaments. (Would be 8 if you counted Gonzaga)
So the numbers show that it is about even, with actually more mid majors having success in the NIL era if you don’t count Gonzaga. The question is whether or not this year is an outlier. I lean towards it not being one. I think it took a couple years for coaches to feel out NIL and immediate transfer eligibility. I think mid majors are basically going to be a farm system from here on out and the likelihood of ever having more than 1 in a sweet 16 is very low going forward.
NIL became legal in summer 2021. The portal has been around longer but rules have really loosened since about that same time. Since then there have been 4 tournaments. I decided to count how many teams were in the 2nd weekend (sweet 16) in the four tournaments leading up to that and the 4 tournaments since then. HUGE disclaimer- I did the numbers with and without Gonzaga. Several pundits have talked over the years about how they do not fall in the same class as mid-majors based on resources and historical success. That is a huge fact in this.
POST NIL - there have been 5 mid majors advance to the sweet 16 over 4 tournaments. (Would be 8 if you counted Gonzaga)
PRE NIL - there were 4 mid majors that advanced to the sweet 16 over four tournaments. (Would be 8 if you counted Gonzaga)
So the numbers show that it is about even, with actually more mid majors having success in the NIL era if you don’t count Gonzaga. The question is whether or not this year is an outlier. I lean towards it not being one. I think it took a couple years for coaches to feel out NIL and immediate transfer eligibility. I think mid majors are basically going to be a farm system from here on out and the likelihood of ever having more than 1 in a sweet 16 is very low going forward.
